Ideas
Buy profitable AI memory beneficiaries
He is positioned in AI beneficiaries that are already generating profits, especially memory names Micron and SK hynix, because they are cheaper and their earnings forecasts have risen more than their share prices, while hyperscaler capex continues to pour billions into the supply chain.
Buy AI power-grid suppliers
Hyperscalers are desperate for electricity and high bandwidth, creating bottlenecks, so he favors energy suppliers and companies that build out the electric grid as AI beneficiaries that make money today rather than long-duration AI aspirants.
Avoid UK on wealth-tax headwinds
The U.K. has already hurt itself by pushing out high-net-worth individuals, and further wealth taxes would be a headwind for tax revenue and investment, making him cautious on the U.K.
Europe equities are cheaper than global
His biggest regional weight is Europe because it is cheaper than the global market once the U.S. premium is excluded.
European banks still cheap after rally
European banks have already rallied but remain cheap to him, adding to his European overweight.
European defense has tailwinds
European defense companies have tailwinds behind them, supporting his European allocation.
Overweight Japan on growth and governance
He is overweight Japan because it is cheaper than the global market and has become a growth engine, helped by government policies and improved corporate governance.
Japanese industrials look really good
Japanese industrials look really good to him as part of the Japan growth and corporate-governance story.
Short long-duration aspirational AI names
He is short KKR, SoftBank, and Oracle because they are very long-duration, aspirational AI names trying to generate future profits, while he prefers companies making profits today.
Non-bank lending faces tough period
He sees emerging stress in private credit and non-bank lending because lenders have thinner buffers than banks, floating-rate loans will see returns fall as rates decline, funding spreads may shock those needing to raise money, and problems are likely in trade receivables, consumer lending, buy now pay later, specialized mortgage financing, and U.S. multifamily; he expects a tough two-to-three-year period.
Private credit is not risk-free
He would not treat private credit as risk-free because a wall of money has forced quality lower, and lack of mark-to-market can create false confidence until losses appear.
Small software companies face disruption risk
Small software companies are at risk of being completely disrupted, with their business models challenged and private-credit exposure adding stress.
Short duration, favor inflation-linked bonds
He is short duration and expects Fed politics to be inflationary, producing a steeper yield curve; he dislikes conventional bonds and favors inflation-linked bonds as markets punish duration in equities and bonds.
Short duration, favor inflation-linked bonds
He is short duration and expects Fed politics to be inflationary, producing a steeper yield curve; he dislikes conventional bonds and favors inflation-linked bonds as markets punish duration in equities and bonds.
Rate cuts help banks and mortgage lenders
Fed rate cuts could lower funding costs and be decent news for banks and mortgage lenders, even though they hurt private-credit lenders' floating-rate superprofits.
Veolia has strong multi-year demand
Veolia sees very strong multi-year demand for water, waste, and energy security; its local business model is resilient to tariffs and FX, it has patented rare-earth recycling technology, and the Clean Earth acquisition expands it in U.S. hazardous waste, supporting more international growth and potential further valuation upside after a historic stock high.
Paul
Bloomberg Managing Editor for Middle East and Africa
44:31
Iran strike could spike oil
If the U.S. strikes Iran, oil prices would likely spike from around $70 a barrel and could reach $100, although Trump and China do not want sustained high energy prices, so the spike might be short-lived.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 27, 2026,
features Patrick Armstrong, Neil Calham, Estelle Brachlianoff, Paul
discussing MU, 000660.KS, XLE, GRID, EWU, VGK, EUFN, European Defense, EWJ, Japanese industrials, KKR, SFTBY, ORCL, BIZD, Non-bank lenders, Trade receivables, Consumer lending, Buy now pay later, Specialized mortgage financing, Multifamily, Small-cap software, TLT, TIP, US Yield Curve Steepener, KBE, Mortgage lenders, Veolia, WTI.
17 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Patrick Armstrong,
Neil Calham,
Estelle Brachlianoff,
Paul
· Tickers:
MU,
000660.KS,
XLE,
GRID,
EWU,
VGK,
EUFN,
European Defense,
EWJ,
Japanese industrials,
KKR,
SFTBY,
ORCL,
BIZD,
Non-bank lenders,
Trade receivables,
Consumer lending,
Buy now pay later,
Specialized mortgage financing,
Multifamily,
Small-cap software,
TLT,
TIP,
US Yield Curve Steepener,
KBE,
Mortgage lenders,
Veolia,
WTI
