Patrick Armstrong

Speaker explicitly names Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix as companies he loves in the high-bandwidth memory space. He states they are "cyclical companies... essentially commodities" but are currently priced at less than 10x forward earnings with high growth. Demand from AI hyperscalers is "insatiable," and these companies have sold everything they can produce through 2027, even with their announced massive CapEx. This gives them incredible pricing power and a clear multi-quarter growth runway. LONG because their oligopoly position, pricing power, and alignment with an undeniable, funded demand trend (AI infrastructure build-out) present a high-conviction opportunity, especially at current valuations. The cyclical nature of the memory business eventually leads to overcapacity and a downturn in the cycle, potentially in a few years.

Energy stocks are overweight because, despite the near-term path of least resistance for oil being lower, inventories have been heavily drawn down and a risk premium should still exist. If supply disruptions re-emerge, oil and energy stocks have asymmetric upside.

Gold miners offer a geared play on gold: if gold stays at current levels they generate huge profits (cash costs $1500-1900 vs gold ~$4800), and if gold rises they amplify returns.

In a stagflation environment, oil refiners have incredible pricing power on refined products (jet fuel, diesel) due to scarcity of supply from the Strait closure and inventory rebuild needs.

Speaker explicitly names Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix as companies he loves in the high-bandwidth memory space. He states they are "cyclical companies... essentially commodities" but are currently priced at less than 10x forward earnings with high growth. Demand from AI hyperscalers is "insatiable," and these companies have sold everything they can produce through 2027, even with their announced massive CapEx. This gives them incredible pricing power and a clear multi-quarter growth runway. LONG because their oligopoly position, pricing power, and alignment with an undeniable, funded demand trend (AI infrastructure build-out) present a high-conviction opportunity, especially at current valuations. The cyclical nature of the memory business eventually leads to overcapacity and a downturn in the cycle, potentially in a few years.

Speaker explicitly names Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix as companies he loves in the high-bandwidth memory space. He states they are "cyclical companies... essentially commodities" but are currently priced at less than 10x forward earnings with high growth. Demand from AI hyperscalers is "insatiable," and these companies have sold everything they can produce through 2027, even with their announced massive CapEx. This gives them incredible pricing power and a clear multi-quarter growth runway. LONG because their oligopoly position, pricing power, and alignment with an undeniable, funded demand trend (AI infrastructure build-out) present a high-conviction opportunity, especially at current valuations. The cyclical nature of the memory business eventually leads to overcapacity and a downturn in the cycle, potentially in a few years.

He favors European industrials, financials, and healthcare because Europe is delivering double-digit earnings growth for the first time in a year. Plurimi moved out of defense and into energy infrastructure, and still holds European banks and healthcare, where topline, revenue, and earnings growth have been very good.

He favors European industrials, financials, and healthcare because Europe is delivering double-digit earnings growth for the first time in a year. Plurimi moved out of defense and into energy infrastructure, and still holds European banks and healthcare, where topline, revenue, and earnings growth have been very good.

He dislikes conventional Treasuries because large deficits, populism, and no credible austerity or tax strategy make inflation the likely consequence. He prefers inflation-protected Treasuries because he cannot see inflation averaging under 2.2% per year over the next decade, and breakevens are pricing a too-perfect disinflation outcome.

Electricity and grid infrastructure face scarcity due to data center buildout and electrification; companies like Siemens Energy and GE Vernova have pricing power and high revenue growth, making them attractive plays on the AI infrastructure boom.

Electricity and grid infrastructure face scarcity due to data center buildout and electrification; companies like Siemens Energy and GE Vernova have pricing power and high revenue growth, making them attractive plays on the AI infrastructure boom.

The best way to play AI capex is to own the chipmakers receiving the hyperscalers' spending. Micron, Samsung and Nvidia are benefiting from a structural, not cyclical, investment wave. They are not expensive on forward earnings and have strong momentum.

The Strait of Hormuz closure threat will cause a spike in refined products like jet fuel and diesel, severely hurting U.S. airlines' costs and margins. He is actively short U.S. airlines despite it being a difficult trade.