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12:40
Jun 03
Jun 03
PLTR
SNOW
DDOG
▾
MED
Early AI enterprise software winners to buy
AI enterprise software spending is still in early innings (third inning, one out) with $3-4 trillion in total spend expected over coming years. Companies like Palantir, Snowflake, and Datadog that enable enterprise-wide AI deployment are beneficiaries as adoption moves from department-level to company-wide. Cybersecurity is also a tangential opportunity. This is an early stage of the AI revolution with many winners ahead.
PLTR LONG
SNOW LONG
DDOG LONG
MED
11:30
Jun 03
Jun 03
MU
JETS 1ST
CRAK
▾
HIGH
Micron earnings justify price
Micron's stock price has risen from $150 to $1000, but its P/E ratio remains unchanged, indicating that earnings growth has kept pace with the price rise, so the stock is not overvalued and remains attractive as part of the AI infrastructure buildout.
MU LONG
Short US airlines on fuel spike
The Strait of Hormuz closure threat will cause a spike in refined products like jet fuel and diesel, severely hurting U.S. airlines' costs and margins. He is actively short U.S. airlines despite it being a difficult trade.
JETS SHORT
Long oil refiners for pricing power
Oil refiners have strong pricing power due to inelastic demand for refined products and the ability to set prices if they have crude supply. This gives them incredible profit margins, making them a good hedge in a portfolio when other sectors suffer from the Middle East tensions.
CRAK LONG
HIGH
11:16
Jun 03
Jun 03
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Euro to fall back to 1.11
The dollar is strong and will remain strong for longer. The macro regime of high rates, equity momentum, carry, and growth supports the dollar. BMO's core view is that EUR/USD will go back to 1.11, implying a weaker euro.
EUR/USD SHORT
Yen to weaken further, USD/JPY to 160
The BOJ is behind the curve, inflation embedded, and intervention ineffective. The market wants to push USD/JPY through 160, and BMO's forecast has it going to 160. The high interest rate, high inflation regime favors the dollar over the yen.
USD/JPY LONG
HIGH
09:31
Jun 03
Jun 03
SMH 1ST
VGK
2454.TW 1ST
INTC 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Semiconductor sector is a winner.
The semiconductor sector is a clear winner from the AI and Computex momentum, with nothing getting in the way of the chip train.
SMH LONG
Europe could rebound conditionally.
European equities have underperformed and could rebound if Middle East uncertainty fades, but the timing is uncertain.
VGK WATCH
MediaTek benefits from edge AI.
MediaTek is a winner because its strengths align with running AI efficiently on edge devices, as highlighted by Computex.
2454.TW LONG
Intel is a clear loser.
Intel is a loser because competitors' products outperform on performance per watt and Intel's response is unconvincing.
INTC SHORT
US equities in earnings super cycle.
US equities are in an earnings super cycle driven by strong AI demand, with 20% earnings growth expected in 2026, supporting the S&P 500 target lift.
SPY LONG
Bitcoin is bearish technically.
Bitcoin is unattractive due to competition from gold and AI equity gains, and has a bearish technical head and shoulders pattern.
BTC AVOID
HIGH
07:35
Jun 03
Jun 03
SPY
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Own S&P 500 for AI winners.
The S&P 500 index is the best way to capture the AI rally because the index includes the AI winners. Valuations are supported by a profit boom, and tactical indicators like sentiment and put option demand do not yet signal a reason to cut risk. The market is concentrated in AI stocks, but historically this broadens out, making the index the winner.
SPY LONG
Gold underowned, buy for hedge.
Gold is structurally underowned by family offices and sovereign wealth funds, and central bank buying provides support. It is preferred over interest rate risk as a portfolio hedge. While tactical timing is difficult, maintaining a structural long position is advised given the underallocation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
GLD LONG
HIGH
07:35
Jun 03
Jun 03
GLD
TLT
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold Bitcoin hurt by yields
Higher yields are problematic for gold, Bitcoin, and other speculative assets as rising rates reduce their appeal relative to yielding assets.
GLD SHORT
BTC SHORT
Short-term yields higher again
In the very short term, yields should be higher again due to strong data (ISM, JOLTS), AI-driven inflationary impulse, and the Iran conflict pushing oil higher. The move is driven by inflation concerns, though the beta to inflation is slightly lower due to stagflation risks.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
06:58
Jun 03
Jun 03
BIDU 1ST
▾
HIGH
Baidu AI revenue exceeds 50%.
AI revenue surpassing 50% of total for the first time, cloud revenue growing 79% YoY, operating margin improving while peers decline, and strict ROI management on CapEx, indicating strong monetization and efficiency.
BIDU LONG
HIGH
06:57
Jun 03
Jun 03
MRVL 1ST
AVGO 1ST
EWJ FLIP
▾
HIGH
Marvell benefits from AI infrastructure expansion
Marvell is a key part of NVIDIA's ecosystem, sitting in the infrastructure layer, and expanding the addressable market for AI. The endorsement from Jensen Huang and the stock's surge highlight strong investor demand for AI-related plays beyond NVIDIA.
MRVL LONG
Broadcom is a key AI chip partner
Broadcom is the third biggest contributor to S&P gains this quarter, is a key partner for Google's TPU chips as an alternative to NVIDIA, and is expected to report nearly 50% revenue growth. High expectations but strong position in the AI ecosystem.
AVGO LONG
Japan equities attract strong AI-driven inflows
Japanese stocks are seeing net inflows of $74 billion year-to-date, on track for the largest annual inflow since 2013. Japan is less concentrated and volatile, and offers good exposure to the AI supply chain as the AI trade broadens out.
EWJ LONG
HIGH
05:37
Jun 03
Jun 03
MRVL 1ST
XLI 1ST
XLB 1ST
EEM 1ST
BIDU 1ST
▾
HIGH
Marvell will be next trillion-dollar company
Marvell (MRVL) will be the next trillion-dollar company, driven by its position in AI networking and chips. Jensen Huang's endorsement and NVIDIA's $2 billion stake underscore the potential.
MRVL LONG
Long AI spillover beneficiaries industrials materials energy
Investors should look at AI spillover beneficiaries in adjacent sectors such as industrials, materials, and energy, as these areas are benefiting from infrastructure buildout and capital spending beyond just AI.
XLI LONG
XLB LONG
XLE LONG
Long emerging markets as top pick
Emerging markets are still structurally underallocated, with a weakening dollar expected to support the asset class, making EM the top pick for the second half of the year.
EEM LONG
Long Baidu due to self-developed GPU
Baidu benefits from its self-developed GPU, allowing it to capitalize on China's GPU shortage for AI training and inference.
BIDU LONG
Long Tencent low PE AI potential
Tencent's stock is down, its PE is low, and the launch of free AI functions within WeChat makes it an attractive AI beneficiary with limited downside expectations.
TCEHY LONG
Long Alibaba from clear AI revenue
Alibaba has clear revenue coming from AI, being the largest cloud service provider in China with strong enterprise AI adoption.
BABA LONG
HIGH
05:32
Jun 03
Jun 03
JGBUX 1ST
BTC 1ST
BZTLF 1ST
2308.TW 1ST
▾
HIGH
Japanese JGBs attractive for dollar-based investors.
Japanese government bonds offer an attractive all-in return of around 7% for dollar-based investors on the 30-year part of the curve, with slightly less on the 15-year. As the BOJ provides more clarity, this will become even more interesting. She sees a meaningful pickup over US Treasuries on a hedged basis.
JGBUX LONG
Bitcoin under pressure from AI stock competition.
Bitcoin is under pressure from competition with AI stocks for retail capital. Momentum is bearish, breaking below 70,000 with next support at 60,000. The 'momentum competition' is crushing Bitcoin, and a sustained recovery is unlikely given the strong equity markets.
BTC SHORT
Bizlink seeing strong demand for data center solutions.
Bizlink is experiencing strong demand for its data center interconnect solutions, with 30% revenue growth in the first four months, an order book exceeding deliveries, and visibility for the remainder of the year and into next year. This indicates a robust business outlook and likely continued stock price appreciation.
BZTLF LONG
Delta Electronics benefits from AI power infrastructure.
Electricity is a key constraint for AI expansion, and new U.S. rules promoting microgrids create a fresh business opportunity for Delta Electronics. The company's order book continues into next year, with most business coming from the U.S., positioning Delta well to benefit from AI power infrastructure demand.
2308.TW LONG
HIGH
04:37
Jun 03
Jun 03
03:13
Jun 03
Jun 03
00:13
Jun 03
Jun 03
HPE 1ST
▾
LOW
Server buildout benefits HPE.
HPE is an old-school company that has found new life due to the AI-driven server buildout, as evidenced by its strong stock performance. The server infrastructure demand from AI workloads is providing a growth catalyst for legacy hardware companies like HPE.
HPE LONG
LOW
22:32
Jun 02
Jun 02
PANW 1ST
AVGO FLIP
ULTA 1ST
CRWD
▾
HIGH
Palo Alto growing organically, AI bolsters growth.
Palo Alto Networks is showing organic growth after a period of M&A-dependent growth. AI will bolster future growth, and management is now delivering on promises. The stock is reasonably valued given the growth trajectory.
PANW LONG
Broadcom benefits from Alphabet AI spend.
Broadcom will benefit from Alphabet's $80 billion equity raise, which will be spent on AI infrastructure, including TPUs that use Broadcom's products. Broadcom is a key chip name that will see increased spend.
AVGO LONG
Ulta solid earnings, well-positioned retail.
Ulta Beauty reported solid earnings with operating margin beating expectations by 120 bps and raised guidance. The company is well-positioned with its mass-to-prestige price range and strong loyalty program, making it a durable retail name even in a discretionary slowdown.
ULTA LONG
CrowdStrike strong AI-driven growth continues.
CrowdStrike is a big beneficiary of AI-driven demand for cybersecurity. It has strong growth momentum, leading Palo Alto on the way up, and we will continue to see strong growth from that company.
CRWD LONG
HIGH
21:25
Jun 02
Jun 02
HPE 1ST
▾
MED
HPE AI server demand to continue rising
The AI server demand environment is extremely strong, driven by the inferencing phase of AI, with demand far exceeding supply. HPE's backlog is materializing faster than modeled, similar to Dell, and the growth momentum will continue for a while as supply constraints persist. This makes HPE a key beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout.
HPE LONG
MED
20:55
Jun 02
Jun 02
GLTR 1ST
▾
LOW
Precious metals margins are very good.
Precious metals margins are very good, implying strong profitability and potential upside, especially compared to AI where margins are uncertain. This makes precious metals an attractive investment.
GLTR LONG
LOW
20:20
Jun 02
Jun 02
20:10
Jun 02
Jun 02
19:48
Jun 02
Jun 02
17:30
Jun 02
Jun 02
GOOGL 1ST
MDB 1ST
▾
HIGH
Alphabet is a strong AI leader.
Alphabet is raising $80B in equity from a position of strength, not weakness. They have a massive cash flow ($126B cash), leading AI position with integrated stack (Gemini, hardware, semi infrastructure), and the AI capex cycle is still early. The dilution is manageable relative to the $4.5T market cap, and the move strategically front-runs upcoming mega IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI). Alphabet's forward P/E of 28x is not extreme, and the earnings growth supports the valuation.
GOOGL LONG
MongoDB is essential for AI data layer.
MongoDB provides the critical data layer for AI workloads, including agentic models and LLMs. The company is seeing accelerating momentum, with 2,500 new logos added in Q1 and raised guidance. Enterprises are still in early stages of AI adoption, and MongoDB is uniquely positioned as the operational data platform with embeddings and real-time capabilities. The stock has reacted strongly post-earnings, and the CEO is optimistic about sustained growth.
MDB LONG
HIGH
16:41
Jun 02
Jun 02
DDOG 1ST
DXY
SNOW 1ST
XLF
▾
MED
DDOG and SNOW will outperform long-term.
The market underestimates free cash flow software names like DataDog and Snowflake that are consumption-based. As enterprises adopt AI, these companies will see strong revenue growth and become money machines over the long term, unlike infrastructure names that are more capital-intensive.
DDOG LONG
SNOW LONG
Own the US dollar.
The US economy is stronger than Europe's, the Fed will eventually recognize inflation risks, and the ECB is tightening into weak growth. This divergence supports the US dollar, making it attractive to own versus other currencies.
DXY LONG
Financials sector will benefit from AI.
The financials sector has lagged the S&P 500 but stands to benefit from AI adoption, as banks and insurance companies use AI to underwrite credit, reduce costs, and improve efficiency. It's a relatively undervalued sector that could see a catch-up rally.
XLF LONG
MED
16:13
Jun 02
Jun 02
15:08
Jun 02
Jun 02
12:57
Jun 02
Jun 02
12:42
Jun 02
Jun 02
GLD 1ST
AUD 1ST
VGK 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold as portfolio stability and upside.
Gold continues to provide stability in portfolios, having been one of the best-performing assets last year. He maintains exposure and pencils in a 5500 price level for 2027, with many targets around 6000.
GLD LONG
AUD as commodity proxy for diversification.
The Australian dollar serves as a proxy for commodity markets and a way to improve risk diversification. It is up 7-8% year to date.
AUD LONG
European equities cheap, poised for gains.
European equities are relatively cheap at 10 times earnings compared to the US at 21 times earnings, seeing investor inflows, and will benefit from AI productivity gains despite headwinds.
VGK LONG
HIGH
11:22
Jun 02
Jun 02
BNO 1ST
ARM
HPE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oil to stay above $80 through year-end
Even with a resolution to the Iran conflict and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will remain elevated above $80 a barrel through the end of the year due to infrastructure damage and supply-side constraints, unless significant demand destruction occurs.
BNO LONG
Arm's AI chip revenue to hit $15B sooner
Arm's revenue from chip subsystems and custom chips is on track to hit $15 billion by the end of the decade, and demand is stronger than anticipated, so the company may hit that target sooner. The growth is driven by AI demand for power-efficient technology and a product that offers twice the performance of x86 at the same power.
ARM LONG
HPE benefits from AI inference server demand
HP Enterprise's annual revenue guidance far exceeded expectations (31% growth vs ~19% consensus) and the company guided for at least 10% growth in 2027, reflecting enduring demand for CPU-based AI inference servers as enterprises deploy AI beyond training. The shift from GPU-heavy training to CPU-based inference creates a large growth opportunity for HPE.
HPE LONG
HIGH
09:45
Jun 02
Jun 02
US Treasuries (long duration)
JGBS 1ST
TIP 1ST
German Bunds (long duration)
BNO
▾
HIGH
Long duration US Treasuries for growth protection.
We see more erosion in the low to middle part of the U.S. consumer, which will affect growth. The bond market is attractive for risk-reward because inflation risk is not well priced but downside risk is. We have increased duration in the long end to protect from growth downside.
US Treasuries (long duration) LONG
Short JGBs on BOJ tightening.
Japan is an inflection point. The Bank of Japan is behind the curve and we think they need to increase rates once or twice. This creates a repricing opportunity in the Japanese bond market.
JGBS SHORT
Buy TIPS as cheap inflation protection.
Breakeven inflation is interesting because the market does not reprice a big reflationary environment. Investing through breakeven is an inexpensive way to protect a portfolio against a potential increase in inflation. You can buy breakeven as a cheap option.
TIP LONG
Short German Bunds on fiscal pressure.
Germany is going to spend a lot of money on expansion, which will put more supply pressure on the German Bund on the long end. On relative value, we expect more pressure on the German Bund in the euro rates on the long end than in the U.S.
German Bunds (long duration) SHORT
Short Brent crude on Strait reopening.
Our current assumption is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in July. Once reopened, oil prices will fall quickly and sharply to around $80 in August and then $70 in September, as Middle East production ramps up, no material infrastructure damage, and a strong supply response.
BNO SHORT
Long technology sector on AI momentum.
We are still quite positive on equity markets. We recently increased exposure to technology and communication services, which are front and center in the AI trade. Strong earnings revisions and high capex cycle back into hardware providers, providing certainty of buying power.
XLK LONG
Long energy sector on AI power demand.
We also have a bit of energy exposure which we added in March-April in response to the AI power demand story. Longer-term demand for power related to AI will need to be met, supporting energy.
XLE LONG
Long communication services on AI.
We have a fairly large exposure to communication services, which are also front and center in the AI trade. The sector benefits from strong earnings revisions and AI-related demand.
XLC LONG
HIGH
07:47
Jun 02
Jun 02
USD/JPY
▾
MED
Yen to remain challenged until conflict ends
The yen will remain challenged against the dollar until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, as the conflict drives a strong dollar safe-haven bid, making intervention necessary and keeping the yen under pressure. A BOJ rate hike is expected in July or June, but it won't reverse the weakness without a resolution in the Middle East.
USD/JPY LONG
MED
07:21
Jun 02
Jun 02
Indian IT services
DRAM 1ST
TW 1ST
IXJ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long Indian IT services rotation.
Rotation from hardware to software is gaining traction in Asia, and Indian IT services have been underweight and are now catching up with strong ADR sessions, presenting a buying opportunity.
Indian IT services LONG
Avoid memory overvaluation.
Valuations for conventional DRAM are stretched with assumptions that don't hold beyond 2027, and the recent inflation shock in Korea adds pressure, so reducing exposure to memory.
DRAM AVOID
MediaTek data center growth bullish.
MediaTek's data center business is growing from zero to $2 billion this year and will be a large part of the $70-80 billion addressable market, driving significant revenue growth.
TW LONG
Healthcare mispriced, buy Asian healthcare.
Healthcare is mispriced across Asia, including Indian services, Japanese pharma, with high cash flow and dividends, while AI stocks are overvalued.
IXJ LONG
HIGH
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