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00:45
Jun 04
Jun 04
22:33
Jun 03
Jun 03
FIVE 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
MED
Five Below likely to beat estimates.
Five Below has strong merchandise and pricing that attracts consumers across income cohorts, and our data shows the retailer was likely to beat earnings estimates and possibly surprise.
FIVE LONG
Earnings momentum supports S&P 500.
The set up is for decent earnings momentum into the back half of the year, driven by Q1 strength broadening beyond semiconductors and into other hardware and AI-attached companies, which will drive market returns.
SPY LONG
MED
22:21
Jun 03
Jun 03
WTI
BNO
▾
MED
Oil prices will move higher.
Oil prices are currently suppressed by an oversupply buffer and demand destruction, but once the buffer is exhausted and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, prices should move significantly higher. The market is underestimating the duration and severity of the supply disruption.
WTI LONG
BNO LONG
MED
20:34
Jun 03
Jun 03
20:06
Jun 03
Jun 03
XOP 1ST
THC 1ST
▾
MED
Buy midcap oil names for higher oil.
Oil prices will be higher for longer than the futures curve implies, and midcap oil and oil service names are pricing in 70-75 oil, creating an attractive entry point. The M&A market in oil services confirms valuations remain cautious, but the fundamental outlook supports higher prices, making midcap oil names a buy.
XOP LONG
Long Tenet Healthcare for reasonable value.
Tenet Healthcare is a reasonable value opportunity with a top-notch management team, and the credit markets would finance the entire market cap. Despite some volume issues, the valuation is credible and the stock offers attractive risk/reward.
THC LONG
MED
19:47
Jun 03
Jun 03
BTC
▾
MED
Bitcoin floors near miner production cost
The cost of production for the most efficient Bitcoin miners is about $60,000 per Bitcoin, and historically this cost has served as a price bottom in deep bear markets. The average miner costs $95,000, and less efficient miners shut down when prices fall below their cost. Therefore, $60,000 is a key support level for Bitcoin.
BTC WATCH
MED
19:33
Jun 03
Jun 03
ORCL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oracle credit is high risk
Oracle has a high-yield profile with spreads that look like high yield, making it risky in the event of an AI-driven credit bubble. The credit requires strong balance sheets to survive a cycle, and Oracle's credit structure raises concerns.
ORCL AVOID
HIGH
19:30
Jun 03
Jun 03
Mid-cap oil names
Oil service suppliers
THC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oil higher for longer supports mid-cap oil.
Oil futures curve prices $70-75, but M&A market and expectations remain cynical, suggesting oil will be higher for longer. Mid-cap oil names and suppliers are undervalued relative to this outlook.
Mid-cap oil names LONG
Oil service suppliers LONG
Tenet credit is reasonable value.
Tenet Healthcare credit is reasonably valued, with top-notch management and a business that the credit markets would fully support, making it an attractive credit opportunity.
THC LONG
HIGH
19:00
Jun 03
Jun 03
TLT
GLD
USD 1ST
AIQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid long-term US Treasuries now.
US debt has passed a point of no return, with debt service payments crowding out spending and creating a supply-demand imbalance in the bond market. Long-term bonds have been a bad investment, and real returns are unattractive. The bond market faces pressure from rising long rates relative to short rates, and the only ways out are either higher real returns or financial repression, neither of which makes bonds attractive. Investors should avoid long-term US Treasuries.
TLT AVOID
Gold benefits from debt crisis.
Gold is benefiting from the weakening dollar and the unattractiveness of bonds. As the debt crisis deepens and the Fed faces stagflation, gold serves as a store of value and an alternative to fiat currency. The demand for gold is being driven by the same forces that are pressuring bonds and the dollar.
GLD LONG
Short the US dollar.
The combination of unsustainable US debt, a weak bond market, and stagflationary pressures is driving the dollar weaker. A weaker dollar is already visible and will likely continue as money flows into alternative assets like gold.
USD SHORT
AI stocks in bubble, avoid.
AI and technology stocks are in a bubble that is approaching the extremes of 2000 and 1929. Wealth creation through equity issuance is outpacing actual money, making stocks vulnerable to a crash when wealth needs to be converted into money. Additionally, geopolitical risks around Taiwan (chip supply) could trigger a sharp selloff. The bubble will burst eventually.
AIQ AVOID
HIGH
18:55
Jun 03
Jun 03
Hyperscaler Data Center High-Yield Bonds
▾
HIGH
Buy hyperscaler data center high-yield bonds
Hyperscaler data center high-yield bonds offer the best excess spread opportunity in the credit market. They are well-rated (BB), backed by hyperscaler contracts, liquid, new-issue paper yielding around 7.5% in a market where most sectors yield less. Despite the growing volume, the space is not yet saturated, and the excess spread relative to rating makes it a compelling buy.
Hyperscaler Data Center High-Yield Bonds LONG
HIGH
17:47
Jun 03
Jun 03
GLD
ABBV 1ST
AMGN 1ST
▾
MED
Gold benefits from bond unattractiveness.
Gold is attractive as a store of value when bonds become unattractive due to low real returns, high debt, and potential financial repression. The bond market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, and gold tends to benefit in such environments as money flows out of bonds into alternative assets.
GLD LONG
Healthcare AI adoption benefits AbbVie, Amgen.
Healthcare and biotech companies using AI to improve drug discovery and medical field will see significant gains. Specifically, AbbVie and Amgen are already held in her portfolio and present attractive opportunities as AI adoption accelerates in the sector.
ABBV LONG
AMGN LONG
MED
16:28
Jun 03
Jun 03
AVGO 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Broadcom top pick, beat and raise expected.
Expects Broadcom to deliver a modest beat and raise, with a focus on upside for calendar 2027 AI revenues (raising from >$100B to $110-120B). Reiterates Overweight rating and top pick. Compute and wafers are constrained, driving future growth. Key relationships with Google and Meta (underappreciated) provide material upside.
AVGO LONG
S&P 500 target 8,000, upside risk.
Raised year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000. Sees upside risk driven by strong earnings from AI capex beneficiaries (45 companies growing 70% on average) and healthy 15% growth in the rest of the market. Believes the market is looking through temporary inflation and geopolitical issues like the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The risk of a blow-off in tech is a market structure risk, not fundamental.
SPY LONG
HIGH
12:40
Jun 03
Jun 03
PLTR
SNOW
DDOG
▾
MED
Early AI enterprise software winners to buy
AI enterprise software spending is still in early innings (third inning, one out) with $3-4 trillion in total spend expected over coming years. Companies like Palantir, Snowflake, and Datadog that enable enterprise-wide AI deployment are beneficiaries as adoption moves from department-level to company-wide. Cybersecurity is also a tangential opportunity. This is an early stage of the AI revolution with many winners ahead.
PLTR LONG
SNOW LONG
DDOG LONG
MED
11:30
Jun 03
Jun 03
MU
JETS 1ST
CRAK
▾
HIGH
Micron earnings justify price
Micron's stock price has risen from $150 to $1000, but its P/E ratio remains unchanged, indicating that earnings growth has kept pace with the price rise, so the stock is not overvalued and remains attractive as part of the AI infrastructure buildout.
MU LONG
Short US airlines on fuel spike
The Strait of Hormuz closure threat will cause a spike in refined products like jet fuel and diesel, severely hurting U.S. airlines' costs and margins. He is actively short U.S. airlines despite it being a difficult trade.
JETS SHORT
Long oil refiners for pricing power
Oil refiners have strong pricing power due to inelastic demand for refined products and the ability to set prices if they have crude supply. This gives them incredible profit margins, making them a good hedge in a portfolio when other sectors suffer from the Middle East tensions.
CRAK LONG
HIGH
11:16
Jun 03
Jun 03
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Euro to fall back to 1.11
The dollar is strong and will remain strong for longer. The macro regime of high rates, equity momentum, carry, and growth supports the dollar. BMO's core view is that EUR/USD will go back to 1.11, implying a weaker euro.
EUR/USD SHORT
Yen to weaken further, USD/JPY to 160
The BOJ is behind the curve, inflation embedded, and intervention ineffective. The market wants to push USD/JPY through 160, and BMO's forecast has it going to 160. The high interest rate, high inflation regime favors the dollar over the yen.
USD/JPY LONG
HIGH
09:31
Jun 03
Jun 03
SMH 1ST
VGK
2454.TW 1ST
INTC 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Semiconductor sector is a winner.
The semiconductor sector is a clear winner from the AI and Computex momentum, with nothing getting in the way of the chip train.
SMH LONG
Europe could rebound conditionally.
European equities have underperformed and could rebound if Middle East uncertainty fades, but the timing is uncertain.
VGK WATCH
MediaTek benefits from edge AI.
MediaTek is a winner because its strengths align with running AI efficiently on edge devices, as highlighted by Computex.
2454.TW LONG
Intel is a clear loser.
Intel is a loser because competitors' products outperform on performance per watt and Intel's response is unconvincing.
INTC SHORT
US equities in earnings super cycle.
US equities are in an earnings super cycle driven by strong AI demand, with 20% earnings growth expected in 2026, supporting the S&P 500 target lift.
SPY LONG
Bitcoin is bearish technically.
Bitcoin is unattractive due to competition from gold and AI equity gains, and has a bearish technical head and shoulders pattern.
BTC AVOID
HIGH
07:35
Jun 03
Jun 03
SPY
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Own S&P 500 for AI winners.
The S&P 500 index is the best way to capture the AI rally because the index includes the AI winners. Valuations are supported by a profit boom, and tactical indicators like sentiment and put option demand do not yet signal a reason to cut risk. The market is concentrated in AI stocks, but historically this broadens out, making the index the winner.
SPY LONG
Gold underowned, buy for hedge.
Gold is structurally underowned by family offices and sovereign wealth funds, and central bank buying provides support. It is preferred over interest rate risk as a portfolio hedge. While tactical timing is difficult, maintaining a structural long position is advised given the underallocation and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
GLD LONG
HIGH
07:35
Jun 03
Jun 03
GLD
TLT
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold Bitcoin hurt by yields
Higher yields are problematic for gold, Bitcoin, and other speculative assets as rising rates reduce their appeal relative to yielding assets.
GLD SHORT
BTC SHORT
Short-term yields higher again
In the very short term, yields should be higher again due to strong data (ISM, JOLTS), AI-driven inflationary impulse, and the Iran conflict pushing oil higher. The move is driven by inflation concerns, though the beta to inflation is slightly lower due to stagflation risks.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
06:58
Jun 03
Jun 03
BIDU 1ST
▾
HIGH
Baidu AI revenue exceeds 50%.
AI revenue surpassing 50% of total for the first time, cloud revenue growing 79% YoY, operating margin improving while peers decline, and strict ROI management on CapEx, indicating strong monetization and efficiency.
BIDU LONG
HIGH
06:57
Jun 03
Jun 03
MRVL 1ST
AVGO 1ST
EWJ FLIP
▾
HIGH
Marvell benefits from AI infrastructure expansion
Marvell is a key part of NVIDIA's ecosystem, sitting in the infrastructure layer, and expanding the addressable market for AI. The endorsement from Jensen Huang and the stock's surge highlight strong investor demand for AI-related plays beyond NVIDIA.
MRVL LONG
Broadcom is a key AI chip partner
Broadcom is the third biggest contributor to S&P gains this quarter, is a key partner for Google's TPU chips as an alternative to NVIDIA, and is expected to report nearly 50% revenue growth. High expectations but strong position in the AI ecosystem.
AVGO LONG
Japan equities attract strong AI-driven inflows
Japanese stocks are seeing net inflows of $74 billion year-to-date, on track for the largest annual inflow since 2013. Japan is less concentrated and volatile, and offers good exposure to the AI supply chain as the AI trade broadens out.
EWJ LONG
HIGH
05:37
Jun 03
Jun 03
MRVL 1ST
XLI 1ST
XLB 1ST
EEM 1ST
BIDU 1ST
▾
HIGH
Marvell will be next trillion-dollar company
Marvell (MRVL) will be the next trillion-dollar company, driven by its position in AI networking and chips. Jensen Huang's endorsement and NVIDIA's $2 billion stake underscore the potential.
MRVL LONG
Long AI spillover beneficiaries industrials materials energy
Investors should look at AI spillover beneficiaries in adjacent sectors such as industrials, materials, and energy, as these areas are benefiting from infrastructure buildout and capital spending beyond just AI.
XLI LONG
XLB LONG
XLE LONG
Long emerging markets as top pick
Emerging markets are still structurally underallocated, with a weakening dollar expected to support the asset class, making EM the top pick for the second half of the year.
EEM LONG
Long Baidu due to self-developed GPU
Baidu benefits from its self-developed GPU, allowing it to capitalize on China's GPU shortage for AI training and inference.
BIDU LONG
Long Tencent low PE AI potential
Tencent's stock is down, its PE is low, and the launch of free AI functions within WeChat makes it an attractive AI beneficiary with limited downside expectations.
TCEHY LONG
Long Alibaba from clear AI revenue
Alibaba has clear revenue coming from AI, being the largest cloud service provider in China with strong enterprise AI adoption.
BABA LONG
HIGH
05:32
Jun 03
Jun 03
JGBUX 1ST
BTC 1ST
BZTLF 1ST
2308.TW 1ST
▾
HIGH
Japanese JGBs attractive for dollar-based investors.
Japanese government bonds offer an attractive all-in return of around 7% for dollar-based investors on the 30-year part of the curve, with slightly less on the 15-year. As the BOJ provides more clarity, this will become even more interesting. She sees a meaningful pickup over US Treasuries on a hedged basis.
JGBUX LONG
Bitcoin under pressure from AI stock competition.
Bitcoin is under pressure from competition with AI stocks for retail capital. Momentum is bearish, breaking below 70,000 with next support at 60,000. The 'momentum competition' is crushing Bitcoin, and a sustained recovery is unlikely given the strong equity markets.
BTC SHORT
Bizlink seeing strong demand for data center solutions.
Bizlink is experiencing strong demand for its data center interconnect solutions, with 30% revenue growth in the first four months, an order book exceeding deliveries, and visibility for the remainder of the year and into next year. This indicates a robust business outlook and likely continued stock price appreciation.
BZTLF LONG
Delta Electronics benefits from AI power infrastructure.
Electricity is a key constraint for AI expansion, and new U.S. rules promoting microgrids create a fresh business opportunity for Delta Electronics. The company's order book continues into next year, with most business coming from the U.S., positioning Delta well to benefit from AI power infrastructure demand.
2308.TW LONG
HIGH
04:37
Jun 03
Jun 03
00:13
Jun 03
Jun 03
HPE 1ST
▾
LOW
Server buildout benefits HPE.
HPE is an old-school company that has found new life due to the AI-driven server buildout, as evidenced by its strong stock performance. The server infrastructure demand from AI workloads is providing a growth catalyst for legacy hardware companies like HPE.
HPE LONG
LOW
22:32
Jun 02
Jun 02
PANW 1ST
AVGO FLIP
ULTA 1ST
CRWD
▾
HIGH
Palo Alto growing organically, AI bolsters growth.
Palo Alto Networks is showing organic growth after a period of M&A-dependent growth. AI will bolster future growth, and management is now delivering on promises. The stock is reasonably valued given the growth trajectory.
PANW LONG
Broadcom benefits from Alphabet AI spend.
Broadcom will benefit from Alphabet's $80 billion equity raise, which will be spent on AI infrastructure, including TPUs that use Broadcom's products. Broadcom is a key chip name that will see increased spend.
AVGO LONG
Ulta solid earnings, well-positioned retail.
Ulta Beauty reported solid earnings with operating margin beating expectations by 120 bps and raised guidance. The company is well-positioned with its mass-to-prestige price range and strong loyalty program, making it a durable retail name even in a discretionary slowdown.
ULTA LONG
CrowdStrike strong AI-driven growth continues.
CrowdStrike is a big beneficiary of AI-driven demand for cybersecurity. It has strong growth momentum, leading Palo Alto on the way up, and we will continue to see strong growth from that company.
CRWD LONG
HIGH
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