Where is the September stock market inflection point? The '3 numbers' that will divide the market direction now | Hong Seonae, Jang Woojin, Geumsigong CEO

Summary

The episode examines why Korean markets are fragile despite good semiconductor earnings. Jang Ho-jin argues foreign rebalancing is not over, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix buybacks are being used as selling liquidity, and KOSPI is not at a strong buy zone. He also lays out key risk triggers, including the US 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, the dollar index above 100, and Brent crude above $100.

• Market sentiment is anxious; all major investor groups are showing weak buying conviction.
• Foreign investors still have room to reduce Korea exposure, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix buybacks providing exit liquidity.
• Korean won strength alone is unlikely to bring foreign buying unless global memory names such as Micron, SanDisk, and Kioxia rally first.
• AI earnings are solid, but data center power bottlenecks are creating uncertainty about execution and near-term semiconductor upside.
• KOSPI is not at a capitulation-like strong buy zone; investors should distinguish between long-term holding and short-term cash needs.
• Yen carry unwind risk is viewed as low because Japan is unlikely to tighten aggressively and yen strength is unlikely.
• Oil remains sticky due to unresolved Middle East tensions, with WTI above $90 and Brent elevated.
• September is seen as a cautious liquidity-constrained month, with employment, CPI, and PPI data as near-term market catalysts.