Memory shortage continues to raise prices, Samsung Foundry is also in full operation… But why is Samsung Electronics stock falling? Is the peak-out theory true?

[#EmergencyInterview] Memory shortage continues to raise prices, Samsung Foundry is also in full operation… But why is Samsung Electronics stock falling? Is the peak-out theory true? | Team Leader Son Chang-hyun

Watch on YouTube ↗ | September 03, 2026 at 09:00 | 25:29 | 815 Money Talk (815머니톡)

Speakers

Son Chang-hyun — Team Leader, Independent Research P&J

Summary

Team Leader Son Chang-hyun reviews the semiconductor memory shortage, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix earnings drivers, accelerated Yongin and Pyeongtaek capex, SOCAMM2 substrate demand, Samsung foundry utilization, China memory risks, US tariff pressure, and front-end/back-end/materials beneficiaries. He argues the shortage and memory pricing remain supportive, and emphasizes back-end process names as the most attractive area, along with select equipment and materials suppliers.

Memory shortage persists due to AI, HBM, legacy demand, and long-term supply agreements.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix earnings are expected to stay positive despite peak-out concerns.
Yongin/Pyeongtaek capex is being accelerated, supporting front-end deposition equipment makers.
SOCAMM2 adoption is ramping, benefiting substrate suppliers such as Simmtech and Korea Circuit.
TSMC capacity constraints are pushing foundry and OSAT orders to Samsung and subcontractors.
Back-end, HBM stacking, and test/inspection are viewed as more attractive than front-end.
Chinese memory expansion is seen as a limited near-term threat but an opportunity for China-exposed Korean equipment makers.

Ideas

Son Chang-hyun Team Leader, Independent Research P&J 0:50

Memory shortage keeps Samsung, SK hynix positive

Memory shortage is continuing, supported by long-term supply agreements and AI-driven HBM/legacy demand; on-device AI, robotics, and autonomous driving are still in early stages but will add demand. He expects memory prices to stay firm short term and Samsung Electronics/SK hynix earnings to remain positive in the second half.

Son Chang-hyun Team Leader, Independent Research P&J 0:50

Memory shortage keeps Samsung, SK hynix positive

TSMC's capacity shortage is pushing orders to Samsung foundry, and Samsung cannot handle all orders, so OSAT subcontractors get spillover. Foundry utilization is likely to exceed 100%. The key is 2nm yield: TSMC is around 70-80% while Samsung is around 55%; improving Samsung's yield by even 10% would sharply raise output and lower financial risk, making Samsung more attractive than SK hynix on foundry operating leverage.

Son Chang-hyun Team Leader, Independent Research P&J 8:36

SOCAMM2 ramp drives substrate suppliers

SOCAMM2 is spreading as a low-power, low-heat, efficient alternative in servers, notebooks, and AI PCs. Amazon's 2 million GPU supply implies about 16 million SOCAMM2 units; Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are moving to mass production in H2. Simmtech, Korea Circuit, Daeduck Electronics, and TLB are rising on substrate demand, and Simmtech is investing KRW 270 billion to expand capacity.

Son Chang-hyun Team Leader, Independent Research P&J 16:03

China memory expansion benefits Korean equipment makers

China's CXMT/YMTC expansion and US restrictions on American semiconductor equipment create a two-track opportunity for Korean equipment makers with Chinese exposure. When CXMT listed, Korean equipment names with Chinese parent or subsidiary ties rose even while Samsung and SK hynix fell. He sees China's memory push as an opportunity for these equipment suppliers rather than a near-term threat to Korean majors.

Son Chang-hyun Team Leader, Independent Research P&J 20:02

Accelerated capex benefits front-end deposition equipment

Samsung and SK hynix are accelerating Yongin and Pyeongtaek capex by about two years; front-end expansion requires equipment first. Deposition equipment is receiving the most attention, with TES, Eugene Technology, and Wonik IPS as representative beneficiaries. He sees the investment momentum as structural and worth following medium-to-long term.

Son Chang-hyun Team Leader, Independent Research P&J 20:49

Back-end process is most attractive semiconductor area

He prefers back-end/OSAT over front-end because HBM is essentially a stacking/back-end process, advanced packaging is combining diverse chips, and the HBM3-to-HBM4 transition requires debond/reflow and test equipment. SFA Semiconductor is outsourcing Samsung DDR5, Hana Micron has packaging/module turnkey capability, Nepes is also named, PSK Holdings supplies HBM4 debonding/reflow equipment, and UniTest/Tron/Intekplus are test/inspection beneficiaries; UniTest has already turned around on HBM4 burn-in test supply to SK hynix.

Son Chang-hyun Team Leader, Independent Research P&J 22:55

Semiconductor boom lifts materials and consumables

Continued semiconductor boom should drive materials/consumables demand. He names Dongjin Semichem, Soulbrain, and Woldex, noting materials names are often undervalued because of conservative IR. He also likes silicon carbide ring component names TCK, KNGJ, and Woldex because deposition/etch demand makes those consumables necessary.

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This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published September 03, 2026, features Son Chang-hyun discussing 000660.KS, 005930.KS, 222800.KQ, 007810.KS, 353200.KS, TLB, Korean semiconductor equipment with China exposure, 095610.KQ, 084370.KQ, 240810.KQ, 036540.KQ, 067310.KQ, 200470.KQ, 031980.KQ, 086390.KQ, TRX, Intekplus, 005290.KQ, 357780.KQ, Woldex, TECK, KNGJ. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Son Chang-hyun · Tickers: 000660.KS, 005930.KS, 222800.KQ, 007810.KS, 353200.KS, TLB, Korean semiconductor equipment with China exposure, 095610.KQ, 084370.KQ, 240810.KQ, 036540.KQ, 067310.KQ, 200470.KQ, 031980.KQ, 086390.KQ, TRX, Intekplus, 005290.KQ, 357780.KQ, Woldex, TECK, KNGJ