Indicator to Determine the Direction of Interest Rates, Tension Ahead of This Week's Announcement | Park Se-ik Executive Director & Chesley Investment Advisory

Indicator to Determine the Direction of Interest Rates, Tension Ahead of This Week's Announcement | Park Se-ik Executive Director & Chesley Investment Advisory [Morning Brief / 26.09.03.Thu]

Watch on YouTube ↗ | September 03, 2026 at 02:04 | 24:58 | Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)

Speakers

Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist

Seon-gu — Manager

Choi Ho — Vice President

Summary

The episode frames the recent pullback in previously strong Korean stocks as a potential cup-with-handle phase and treats September as an accumulation window before a medium-term bull market. The team presents detailed bull cases for MLCC/passive-components name Samwha Capacitor and substrate/socket maker Simmtech, emphasizing AI demand, price hikes, and mix improvement. They also discuss this week's US jobs data as a key factor that may reverse the oil-driven rise in rates and trigger an equity rebound, while flagging ongoing weakness in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and a mild September KOSPI correction.

Korean equities: the recent sharp pullback in prior leaders is viewed as a handle before a possible 7–10 month bull phase.
MLCC/substrate sector: AI server demand, tier-1 capacity shifts, and price hikes support leading-sector status.
Samwha Capacitor: utilization-driven margin recovery with Q3 price hikes and film-capacitor growth.
Simmtech: AI socket/module substrate capex and customer demand drive steep revenue and margin mix improvement.
US macro: weak jobs data may send yields lower and equities higher after an oil-driven rate scare.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: below key moving averages and needs more time correction.
KOSPI tactically cautious ahead of BOJ/FOMC, but cautious positioning may limit downside.

Ideas

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 0:00

Pullbacks offer entry before bull market.

Quantitatively, buying a stock about one month after a 52-week high has produced higher returns than chasing immediately; the recent sharp two-to-three day drops in last month's leaders such as cosmetics and secondary batteries look like a cup-with-handle shakeout before fresh upside. The speaker sees September as a seed-sowing window before a 7–10 month bull market, and would combine the pullback with fundamental selection.

Seon-gu Manager 1:41

Korean MLCC/substrate sector is leading.

MLCC, substrates, and sockets have become a leading Korean materials/components sector. Tier-1 MLCC makers are reallocating capacity toward AI server high-value MLCC and raising prices, which reduces commodity supply and creates share and pricing opportunities for tier-2 players; AI MLCC demand is stronger than expected.

Seon-gu Manager 2:03

MLCC price hikes boost Samwha Capacitor.

Samwha Capacitor recovered double-digit operating margin in Q2 on utilization gains alone, with MLCC ASP not yet rising. As MLCC price increases from Q3 and high-margin film-capacitor demand from data centers and semiconductor power infrastructure flow through, earnings should accelerate; the analyst sees 2027 revenue around 400bn won and operating profit around 60bn won, with 2028 top line potentially 600bn won and past-cycle 20–30% operating margins possible against a 1.1trn market cap, though Q4 earnings are seasonally weak.

Seon-gu Manager 11:43

AI sockets drive Simmtech's margin inflection.

Simmtech's new AI socket/module substrate business is ramping sharply: socket revenue is expected to rise from 25bn won in Q2 to about 75.7bn won in Q4 and an annualized 340bn won next year on Nvidia Rubin adoption and strong demand from the top three memory customers. Socket's revenue share rising from 4.8% to 12.7% is driving a mix-driven margin inflection, and the analyst argues valuation near 11.6x 2027 earnings is attractive, with limited equity-raise risk because customer investment support is likely, though much of the ramp may already be reflected by Q4.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 21:05

Weak jobs data lowers yields, lifts equities.

Park expects US employment to remain soft enough to lift unemployment toward 4.2%, and argues the oil-driven rise in interest rates will reverse as labor data weaken. Equities, which sold off on the oil/rate scare, should rebound once the employment data confirms the slowdown, and this pattern may persist.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 21:05

Weak jobs data lowers yields, lifts equities.

Park expects US employment to remain soft enough to lift unemployment toward 4.2%, and argues the oil-driven rise in interest rates will reverse as labor data weaken. Equities, which sold off on the oil/rate scare, should rebound once the employment data confirms the slowdown, and this pattern may persist.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 21:42

Semiconductor index needs more correction time.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is described as the most vulnerable major chart: it is below its 5-week moving average, the monthly rebound failed and closed below the 5-month moving average, and the speaker believes the semiconductor sector needs more time correction through this month after prior excess gains and heavy exposure to Nvidia, Broadcom, and memory names.

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This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published September 03, 2026, features Park Se-ik, Seon-gu discussing EWY, Korean MLCC and substrate sector, 001820.KS, 222800.KQ, US Treasury yields, SPY, SMH. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Park Se-ik, Seon-gu · Tickers: EWY, Korean MLCC and substrate sector, 001820.KS, 222800.KQ, US Treasury yields, SPY, SMH