"What we have seen last week is a trend on the dollar and typically when historically we have seen very big events, the dollar tends to strengthen over the next three six months." The US is a net exporter of energy. When global oil prices spike due to Middle East conflicts, the US terms of trade improve relative to energy importers, driving capital flows into the US Dollar as both a safe haven and a fundamental beneficiary. LONG. The dollar is positioned to gain from both safe-haven flows and structural economic advantages during a global energy shock. If the conflict ends quickly and oil prices revert to the $70 range, the short-term support for the dollar will evaporate, especially if the Fed proceeds with rate cuts.