Ven Ram

Gold is up nearly 1% on trade uncertainty and the threat of a US military strike on Iran. Gold is benefiting from a dual tailwind: 1) Haven demand due to Middle East war risk, and 2) A weakening US Dollar caused by the Supreme Court limiting Trump's economic leverage. Momentum is strong (up 6% in 4 sessions). LONG Gold as a hedge against geopolitical escalation and dollar debasement. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough in Geneva talks or a de-escalation in rhetoric.

U.S. equity markets, particularly the S&P 500, are overripe for a correction because they have run up too much and froth is considerable relative to fair value.

At current 30-year yield levels near 2007 highs, long-dated US Treasuries represent bargain levels because yields are unlikely to persist over the life of the bond, so investors should scale into duration.

The path of least resistance for US Treasury yields is higher because the Fed is underpricing the risk of having to raise rates due to the energy shock, and the market is still not pricing in a sufficiently hawkish Fed. Therefore, long-duration bonds should decline.

The Nasdaq 100's fair value is 29,910, implying a 10% upside from current levels. If the cease-fire in Iran holds, the Nasdaq could reach 30,000 by year-end, supported by long-term cash flow discounting and attractive valuations after the earlier tech selloff.

The US trade deficit has ballooned to 1960s levels despite tariffs, while the Eurozone current account surplus widened significantly in December. The Supreme Court ruling signals that Trump's ability to unilaterally weaponize the dollar/trade policy is limited. Combined with fundamental flow data (money flowing into EU via surplus), the structural backdrop favors the Euro over the Dollar. LONG Euro (FXE) / SHORT US Dollar (UUP). ECB dovishness or a resurgence of EU-specific political instability.