Ideas
Yen has room to appreciate further.
The yen surged on BOJ hawk speculation, and with the September BOJ meeting approaching and traders positioning for a possible larger hike, there is room for the yen to appreciate further, particularly against the euro and pound, while dollar-yen is more difficult but still has upside yen risk.
Yen has room to appreciate further.
The yen surged on BOJ hawk speculation, and with the September BOJ meeting approaching and traders positioning for a possible larger hike, there is room for the yen to appreciate further, particularly against the euro and pound, while dollar-yen is more difficult but still has upside yen risk.
Japan 30-year auction globally crucial.
The 30-year JGB auction is huge and globally important because Japan's higher term premium has been feeding into U.S., German and UK yields; conditions look decent so it may pass, but a failure would be bad for global rates.
Bond valuations now offer attractive compensation.
Long-end term premium stress will persist until fiscal normalization, but current valuations and carry compensation in bond and fixed-income products are sufficient to offset potential capital losses, creating an attractive macro setup for bonds generally.
Prefer Asia and EM local bonds.
Asian local and EM local markets have less competing hyperscaler bond supply than developed markets, and domestic banks buy their own government debt, giving value creation with better alpha asymmetry.
Short dollar, buy North Asia currencies.
Capital that went into U.S. growth stocks is coming back into the export cycle, supporting a capital repatriation normalization theme that is bullish for the yen, Korean won and Taiwan dollar; he remains short the dollar.
Short dollar, buy North Asia currencies.
Capital that went into U.S. growth stocks is coming back into the export cycle, supporting a capital repatriation normalization theme that is bullish for the yen, Korean won and Taiwan dollar; he remains short the dollar.
Asian high yield deep value later.
Indonesia, Philippines and India high-yield assets are still struggling because of extended higher oil prices, fiscal deficits and term premium stress, but they are deep value and could be attractive once oil and term premium normalize, more of a next-year setup.
Jeannie
Asian Equities Deputy Managing Editor, Bloomberg
27:35
Enflame is a Tencent AI bet.
Enflame's Tencent relationship is the big differentiator: Tencent is both a major consumer and a major backer, so investing in Enflame is effectively a bet on Tencent's AI ambitions and how far ahead Tencent can push.
Jeannie
Asian Equities Deputy Managing Editor, Bloomberg
29:08
Food-delivery price war easing structurally.
The China food-delivery price war is fading faster than expected, with better cost discipline and narrowing quick-commerce losses for JD and Alibaba; estimates have been revised up and shares have rebounded, with the improvement seen as structural rather than seasonal.
China government bonds look unattractive.
The acceleration in China government bond issuance is largely priced in, and with China's long yields low compared to global peers, fund managers see other fixed-income markets as more attractive; the impact on China government bonds is negative.
Yuan likely appreciates gradually.
The PBOC is expected to allow gradual yuan appreciation, with state banks managing the currency around 6.72 per dollar, low volatility, and Goldman seeing the yuan strengthening toward 5 per dollar over the next several years.
Yuan likely appreciates gradually.
The PBOC is expected to allow gradual yuan appreciation, with state banks managing the currency around 6.72 per dollar, low volatility, and Goldman seeing the yuan strengthening toward 5 per dollar over the next several years.
Asian banks offer sharp risk-adjusted exposure.
Asian banking and financials have one of the sharpest risk-adjusted profiles in Asia because they track the tech boom, cash flows into regional economies and rate pressure; Korean and Japanese financials have been strong.
Equity market tone remains strong.
The equity market tone is still strong because nominal growth is strong, corporate earnings are coming through and froth has come off in momentum; the AI story is positive but equity leadership should broaden.
Tactical value in long government bonds.
After being negative on bonds earlier, she now sees tactical value in government bonds, especially the long end, because more rate hikes are now priced at the front end and inflation should be well behaved.
Little value in credit now.
She sees little value in credit right now even as she remains positive on the AI story; she prefers diversified equity exposure rather than chasing credit.
Favor quality and value equities.
After a worrying momentum-versus-quality divergence, she sees opportunity in quality and value stocks to diversify AI risk instead of chasing momentum froth.
Stay positive on Asia and China.
She remains positive on Asia because the region offers the best growth opportunity outside the U.S., and China is the economy that can compete with U.S. tech, so investors should diversify geographically away from U.S.-only exposure.
Gold is still a useful hedge.
Gold remains a better hedge than bonds against fiscal sustainability and central-bank credibility concerns; even after rate repricing and bond yields rising, there is still a role for gold.
Taiwan chip supply chain is bullish.
There is broad bullishness in Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain because the AI chipmaking supercycle is so strong in the U.S. and elsewhere, and companies are adding U.S. investments while remaining critical suppliers.
Dollar-yen sustained reversal still distant.
Even if the BOJ hikes 25 basis points in September, deeply negative real rates and Japan's term premium mean conditions for a sustained dollar-yen reversal are still some way away; he expects dollar-yen to remain around 160, contained between about 155 and 164, with year-end forecast 160-161.
Swiss franc is preeminent safe haven.
In a larger risk-off correction through September-October, the U.S. dollar would still hold up well, but the Swiss franc is proving itself the preeminent safe-haven currency, outperforming the dollar.
Emerging market local debt is winning.
Emerging markets are the surprise winner in the global bond rout: high-yielding EM sovereign yields have fallen since March and the dollar-funded carry trade has returned 22% since end-2024, with lower supply and seven quarters of capital gains.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 03, 2026,
features Mark Cranfield, Jason Pang, Jeannie, Iris, Anthony Stevens, Johanna Kyrklund, Stephen Engle, Ray Attrill, Shuli Rand
discussing EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, JPY, Japan 30-year government bonds, Global government bonds, TLT, Asia local bonds, EM local bonds, USD, KRW, TWD, Indonesia high-yield bonds, Philippines high-yield bonds, India high-yield bonds, Enflame, JD, BABA, CBON, USD/CNY, CNY, Korean financials, DXJ, VT, US 30-year Treasuries, IEF, LQD, High-quality stocks, Value stocks, AAXJ, FXI, GLD, Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain, TSM, USD/JPY, CHF, Emerging market local bonds, High-yield EM sovereign bonds.
24 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Mark Cranfield,
Jason Pang,
Jeannie,
Iris,
Anthony Stevens,
Johanna Kyrklund,
Stephen Engle,
Ray Attrill,
Shuli Rand
· Tickers:
EUR/JPY,
GBP/JPY,
JPY,
Japan 30-year government bonds,
Global government bonds,
TLT,
Asia local bonds,
EM local bonds,
USD,
KRW,
TWD,
Indonesia high-yield bonds,
Philippines high-yield bonds,
India high-yield bonds,
Enflame,
JD,
BABA,
CBON,
USD/CNY,
CNY,
Korean financials,
DXJ,
VT,
US 30-year Treasuries,
IEF,
LQD,
High-quality stocks,
Value stocks,
AAXJ,
FXI,
GLD,
Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain,
TSM,
USD/JPY,
CHF,
Emerging market local bonds,
High-yield EM sovereign bonds
