TWD Taiwan Dollar Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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Top Calls
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Price change since each call, adjusted for long/short direction. Results calculated:
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04:56
Sep 03
Sep 03
Short dollar, buy North Asia currencies.
Capital that went into U.S. growth stocks is coming back into the export cycle, supporting a capital repatriation normalization theme that is bullish for the yen, Korean won and Taiwan dollar; he remains short the dollar.
HIGH
19:07
Aug 30
Aug 30
Author discusses policy preferences for stronger Asian currencies but frames it as historical.
Author discusses policy preferences for stronger Asian currencies but frames it as historical support, not a current trade position.
LOW
10:15
Aug 30
Aug 30
The author argues CNY undervaluation is relative to a basket, not all Asian pairs.
The author argues CNY undervaluation is relative to a basket, not all Asian pairs, and notes JPY/TWD/KRW appreciation would increase CNY undervaluation, a factual exchange-rate analysis without a trade position.
LOW
23:51
Aug 23
Aug 23
Long TWD on surplus and exporter flows
Long TWD against USD; Taiwan’s 10% y/y growth and current account surplus near 20% of GDP mean exporter conversion flows should support the currency, and 31.8 is still exceptionally weak.
MED
15:56
Aug 21
Aug 21
Long Korea, Taiwan dollar, yen.
Carry trades can outperform, but FX should be selective; APAC currencies with heavy current-account surpluses such as Korea, the Taiwan dollar and the yen can perform.
MED
14:01
Aug 21
Aug 21
APAC currencies favored for current account surpluses.
Geoffrey still likes APAC currencies as selective FX trades, favoring those with heavier current account surpluses. Korea is already performing, and he is looking at the Taiwan dollar and yen as other trades.
HIGH
05:37
Aug 21
Aug 21
US Dollar will weaken as capital flows to Asia.
The US Dollar is likely to enter a long-term downtrend as global investors lose confidence in US policies and monetary policy misalignment, with capital flowing back into Asian currencies like the Korean Won and Taiwan Dollar.
MED
05:37
Aug 20
Aug 20
Asian currencies strengthen on exports and buybacks.
Asian currencies, specifically the Korean Won and Taiwan Dollar, are strengthening as regional exports boom and capital returns home due to shareholder return programs from companies like SK Hynix and Samsung.
MED
05:14
Aug 20
Aug 20
Asian currencies are breaking out against USD.
Asian currencies are breaking out to the upside and looking remarkably better vis-a-vis the US dollar, driven by strong export stories and controlled oil moves.
HIGH
02:15
Aug 18
Aug 18
The author suggests Taiwan's central bank could allow currency strength amid fiscal flush.
The author suggests Taiwan's central bank could allow currency strength amid fiscal flush conditions, but frames it as a hypothetical policy comment rather than a trade position.
LOW
14:18
Aug 14
Aug 14
The author notes that Taiwan's strong GDP growth has had no observable impact on the Taiwan.
The author notes that Taiwan's strong GDP growth has had no observable impact on the Taiwan dollar, a factual observation without a directional trade view.
LOW
23:50
Aug 10
Aug 10
Currency traders are increasing bullish options bets on the Taiwan dollar after it suffered its.
Currency traders are increasing bullish options bets on the Taiwan dollar after it suffered its worst July since 2015, signaling a shift in sentiment.
15:08
Aug 10
Aug 10
The author argues the yen has overshot fundamentals and that Asian currencies are managed.
The author argues the yen has overshot fundamentals and that Asian currencies are managed around levels, discussing intervention and BoJ policy without taking a position.
LOW
04:09
Aug 04
Aug 04
Taiwan wants even weaker TWD
TWD is flagged as a currency that is already weak, with Taiwan's policy preference for an even weaker TWD, unlike Korea or Japan; no explicit trade stance.
LOW
13:13
Jul 31
Jul 31
Author notes Taiwan dollar returning to pre-appreciation levels due to regulatory changes.
Author notes Taiwan dollar returning to pre-appreciation levels due to regulatory changes and TSMC's restrained dollar conversion, but makes no directional call.
LOW
22:57
Jul 23
Jul 23
Author comments on Taiwan central bank policy enabling TWD depreciation.
Author comments on Taiwan central bank policy enabling TWD depreciation, but no directional commitment to a tradeable instrument.
LOW
10:25
Jul 14
Jul 14
AI tailwind lifts Korean won, Taiwan dollar
Asian economies like Korea and Taiwan are the biggest beneficiaries of the AI revolution, which offsets the negative impact of higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict. The Bank of Korea is incredibly hawkish, with rates nearly as high as the U.S., supporting the won. In the medium-term, the AI tailwind is likely to dominate the oil shock, making KRW and TWD outperformers.
HIGH
06:28
Jul 03
Jul 03
Asian currencies set to appreciate
Asian economies have massive current account surpluses ($1.6 trillion over 12 months) tied to exports and AI/tech. Once the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism abates and the Fed stops hiking, capital flows will return to Asia and drive appreciation in the Korean won, Taiwan dollar, and Japanese yen.
HIGH
14:37
Jul 01
Jul 01
The author argues that JPY, KRW, and TWD are incredibly undervalued and favors appreciation.
The author argues that JPY, KRW, and TWD are incredibly undervalued and favors appreciation of Asian majors, but this is a macroeconomic analysis without a stated position or trade.
LOW
07:12
Jun 25
Jun 25
Long Taiwan dollar, 3%-4% upside ahead.
The Taiwan dollar is resilient but masked by broad dollar strength. A powerful tech trade surplus will translate into appreciation once dollar strength fades, offering 3-4% upside. Unlike the Korean won, there is no single-stock concentration issue.
MED
20:48
Jun 03
Jun 03
The author explains that Taiwan dollar stability is maintained by unwinding lifer hedges.
The author explains that Taiwan dollar stability is maintained by unwinding lifer hedges and exporter dollar-selling policies, not a trade idea.
LOW
17:41
May 25
May 25
The tweet discusses controlled CNY appreciation and orchestrated TWD depreciation without.
The tweet discusses controlled CNY appreciation and orchestrated TWD depreciation without expressing a forward-looking directional view on either currency.
LOW
12:36
May 22
May 22
Brad_Setser argues that all of Asia needs to appreciate.
Brad_Setser argues that all of Asia needs to appreciate, implying a weaker USD and stronger Asian currencies, with a stronger CNY pulling others like TWD higher.
HIGH
09:27
May 20
May 20
The tweet notes Taiwan's rising current account surplus yet falling TWD.
The tweet notes Taiwan's rising current account surplus yet falling TWD, highlighting a divergence without expressing a directional trade view.
HIGH
22:21
May 19
May 19
The tweet analyzes FX option pricing on TWD NDFs to estimate a 5-8% real-world probability.
The tweet analyzes FX option pricing on TWD NDFs to estimate a 5-8% real-world probability of a Taiwan invasion, comparing it to Polymarket odds without expressing a personal directional trade view.
HIGH
22:17
May 19
May 19
The tweet analyzes FX option pricing on Taiwan dollar NDFs to estimate a 5-8% real-world.
The tweet analyzes FX option pricing on Taiwan dollar NDFs to estimate a 5-8% real-world probability of a Taiwan invasion over the next year, comparing it to Polymarket odds.
HIGH
05:52
May 15
May 15
The author sarcastically dismisses a bullish call on cheap Asian currencies as a "widow maker.
The author sarcastically dismisses a bullish call on cheap Asian currencies as a "widow maker trade," implying high risk of reversal despite the claimed trend start.
HIGH
12:11
May 11
May 11
The author sarcastically flags Asian FX as a potential widow maker trade while quoting.
The author sarcastically flags Asian FX as a potential widow maker trade while quoting a bullish thesis on the dollar savings pile shift, but hedges with "might" and sarcasm.
HIGH
16:32
May 08
May 08
Brad Setser highlights that Korea and Taiwan's surpluses coincide with historically weak.
Brad Setser highlights that Korea and Taiwan's surpluses coincide with historically weak currencies, questioning the expected relationship between trade flows and exchange rates.
HIGH
00:40
May 06
May 06
The author suggests Asian currencies are an imbalanced trade opportunity but uses hedged.
The author suggests Asian currencies are an imbalanced trade opportunity but uses hedged language and sarcasm, so no directional call is made.
HIGH
About TWD Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks TWD (Taiwan Dollar) across 8 sources: 18 bullish vs 0 bearish calls from 17 authors. Historical directional balance: 43% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 42 total trade ideas tracked. Latest voices: Jason Pang, Brad Setser, Geoffrey Yu.