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12:17
Jul 20
Jul 20
BNO 1ST
CRAK 1ST
ITA 1ST
ESA 1ST
AIQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Energy prices poised to spike higher
Diesel and jet fuel spreads are at record highs, reflecting physical market tightness and depleted inventories. With no clear de-escalation path in the US-Iran conflict, energy prices are at significant risk of moving much higher to destroy demand, tightening markets further.
BNO LONG
CRAK LONG
Super cycle in defense, aerospace, AI
A broad-based super cycle is underway in AI, defense, aerospace, and manufacturing, driven by infrastructure spending, electrification, and strong capex. The resilience is wider than most assume, supporting continued dynamism in these sectors.
ITA LONG
ESA LONG
AIQ LONG
Boeing recovering on strong demand, backlog
Boeing is turning the corner, ramping up production on 737 and 787 lines, with very strong market demand and record backlogs. Execution on deliveries and improving financials will support the recovery.
BA LONG
Ryanair gains as fuel costs crush rivals
Ryanair is better hedged than competitors on fuel. High oil prices will force capacity out of the market, allowing Ryanair to gain share and benefit from higher fares as weaker airlines struggle.
RYAAY LONG
Alibaba AI cheap, competitive, open-source
Alibaba's new AI model is highly competitive, claimed to be second only to Anthropic's top model, yet is open-source and up to 90% cheaper than US models. This gives Alibaba a strong position to gain adoption and threaten US dominance.
BABA LONG
Watch US AI hyperscalers, Chinese threat
Chinese AI models are closing the performance gap with US leaders quickly, while being significantly cheaper and open-source. This raises a real risk to US hyperscalers' AI market share and warrants caution on their premium valuations.
GOOGL WATCH
AMZN WATCH
MSFT WATCH
HIGH
12:15
Jul 20
Jul 20
BA
▾
HIGH
Boeing turning corner, strong demand, ramping up.
Boeing is turning the corner, ramping up production on the 737 to 47/month with aspirations to reach 63, and the 787 to 8/month aiming for 10 later this year and higher next year. The backlog is very strong and the market is super resilient, with traffic continuing to grow and a new forecast of 44,000 airplanes needed over the next 20 years. The company is restoring trust with regulators, customers, and employees, recently regaining delegation for ticketing commercial airplanes. Financially, it plans to ramp production, improve cash flow, and pay down debt in the next couple of years, positioning for a next-generation aircraft when the market is ready. The overall execution story and strong demand environment support a bullish outlook.
BA LONG
HIGH
12:08
Jul 20
Jul 20
BNO
WTI
▾
MED
Escalating attacks threaten oil supply
Escalating US-Iran hostilities are reducing vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks are expanding from military infrastructure to energy assets including in Kuwait. This is creating market anxiety and fears of further damage to refineries, pipelines, and oil and gas facilities, shifting focus from reopening the strait to repairing facilities, which supports higher oil prices.
BNO LONG
WTI LONG
MED
12:07
Jul 20
Jul 20
WTI
▾
HIGH
Tightening Gulf supply lifts oil prices.
Persian Gulf oil exports have dropped below 50% of normal due to US-Iran escalation, supply is tightening, and prices can continue to rise while the conflict lasts.
WTI LONG
HIGH
11:31
Jul 20
Jul 20
BNO FLIP
UNG 1ST
FXI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Tightening supply lifts oil prices.
Visible exports from the Persian Gulf have dropped below 50% of normal as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The direction of travel is one of tightening supply, and oil prices can continue to increase while the disruption lasts.
BNO LONG
Low storage and competition boost gas.
European natural gas storage is unlikely to reach over 70% this year, with risk of going lower. Summer demand from Asia is competing for LNG cargoes, and with winter approaching, Europe and Asia must compete to build storage, driving prices higher to curb demand.
UNG LONG
Chinese stocks cheap with tech upside.
The Chinese market is one of the few large markets that is good value, with cyclically adjusted PE well below historical norms and far below US and Europe. China also has interesting technology developments in AI, robotics, solar, and EVs, and is moving up the value chain. He has been overweight Chinese stocks for years and remains overweight.
FXI LONG
HIGH
11:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
EWY
KOSDAQ
005930.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Volume exhaustion signals KOSPI rebound ahead.
The KOSPI has been falling on sharply declining trading volume and value, a pattern that historically precedes a rebound. Foreigners have shifted from persistent selling to net buying in spot and futures, and overall fund flows into Korean equities are improving. Valuation is cheap relative to history, and while timing is uncertain, the market is likely to return to its fair value band, making this a holding and accumulation point for those using cash.
EWY LONG
KOSDAQ rebound may be sharper after credit flush.
KOSDAQ's credit balance has dropped much faster than KOSPI's, meaning leveraged selling pressure is largely exhausted. When the market turns up, KOSDAQ could see a lighter, sharper rebound because heavy forced selling has already occurred, though absolute credit levels remain a risk.
KOSDAQ LONG
AI model launch positive for Korean memory.
Many retail investors hold Samsung Electronics and SK hynix at average costs as high as 190,000–200,000 won for SK hynix, putting them deep underwater. This creates a risk of cascading forced selling. To reduce psychological and margin pressure, investors with high average purchase prices should consider trimming positions and re-entering later at better levels.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
11:23
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
3h
RYAAY
▾
HIGH
Capacity shakeout boosts low-cost Ryanair's pricing power.
European airline capacity will contract as weaker carriers fail due to the Middle East crisis and lack of Ryanair's cost base and debt-free balance sheet. This capacity shakeout, along with ongoing M&A, shifts fare risk to the upside. Ryanair's unit cost advantage is growing (nearest competitor 80% higher), and new Boeing MAX 10 aircraft deliver 20% lower fuel burn and more passengers, locking in growth to over 300 million passengers annually. Airports are offering favorable deals to Ryanair anticipating competitor exits.
RYAAY LONG
HIGH
11:13
Jul 20
Jul 20
BA 1ST
DXY 1ST
GBP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Boeing turning corner, strong business momentum.
Boeing is turning the corner, ramping production on 737 and 787 programs, with strong backlog and resilient aviation demand; President Trump's sales support has helped secure aircraft orders, and the company forecasts 44,000 new planes in 20 years.
BA LONG
Dollar benefits from oil exports, Fed hawkishness.
The US dollar is well-placed because the US is now an oil exporter, giving it an advantage over energy-importing currencies; the Fed's hawkishness is the most pronounced since 2022, with potential rate hikes providing asymmetric upside; even if oil stabilizes, the carry advantage persists.
DXY LONG
Sterling strong on growth, fiscal concerns limited.
Sterling has been resilient because UK growth is surprising to the upside and tracking better than the BOE forecast; fiscal noise from the new PM will not dominate in the interim, and the currency will trade off tangible growth data; the bullish consensus call remains intact.
GBP LONG
HIGH
11:13
Jul 20
Jul 20
000660.KS
EWY
ORCL
005930.KS FLIP
▾
HIGH
Oversold on liquidity, strong memory demand persists.
SK Hynix is deeply undervalued relative to Micron, trading at just 5-6x forward P/E even though the HBM/DDR5 memory upcycle remains intact. Supply-demand distortions from leveraged ETFs and foreign selling have created a 20%+ gap against Micron beyond common factors. The LTA contract structure supports pricing, and recent DDR5 spot price surges confirm strong server demand. Once AI capex fears ease around big tech earnings, the stock should rebound sharply.
000660.KS LONG
KOSPI's 5x P/E is absurdly cheap assuming structural cycle.
The KOSPI is trading at a trailing P/E of just 5-6x, even below the COVID-19 bottom, and its forward PEG is only 0.25 based on 10-20% earnings growth. If the current semiconductor cycle is structural rather than cyclical, this valuation is unjustifiably low. The market is pricing in a severe earnings collapse that is unlikely to happen given persistent AI-related demand and LTA contracts.
EWY LONG
Oracle overly levered, high bankruptcy risk on capex slowdown.
Oracle is the canary in the coal mine for the AI capex cycle. If the cycle cracks, Oracle's leverage makes it most vulnerable to default risk. The CDS spread for Oracle combined with other big techs is already elevated, and Oracle's standalone fundamentals could deteriorate badly in a downturn. Investors should avoid Oracle as a fragile link.
ORCL AVOID
Undervalued memory leader with HBM catalyst ahead.
Samsung Electronics has underperformed SK Hynix due to HBM qualification concerns, but its memory business is still generating massive earnings, and the stock trades near 5x P/E. The AI capex cycle and eventual HBM qualification will close the valuation gap. The LTA contract visibility and robust DDR5 demand support a recovery in the share price.
005930.KS LONG
HIGH
11:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
475150.KS
005930.KS
000660.KS
EWY
034730.KS
▾
HIGH
Renewable energy stocks bottoming out.
Renewable energy stocks showed resilience in a falling market; SK Holdings, Hyundai Energy Solution, and SK Eternix are displaying signs of forming a bottom and attempting a trend reversal, indicating that the sector may have already priced in the worst.
475150.KS LONG
034730.KS LONG
Hyundai Energy Solution LONG
Big tech capex lifts memory stocks.
Big tech companies will increase capex by 30% or more to meet surging AI demand, confirmed in upcoming earnings (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon). Korean memory leaders are oversold; hedge funds started buying back semi stocks last week; server DRAM spot prices remain strong (triple fixed price), disproving fears of a price collapse. The sell-off is overdone and a recovery is coming.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Foreign futures buying signals tomorrow's rebound.
Foreign investors bought over 1 trillion won of KOSPI futures near the market close, adding to 700 billion won bought last Thursday. This pattern of heavy futures buying strongly signals a short-term rebound for the KOSPI tomorrow. Nasdaq futures also turned higher after the Korean close, reinforcing the signal.
EWY LONG
US Navy orders boost shipbuilding equipment.
The US government has designated shipbuilding as a strategic project, putting initial orders worth around 3 trillion won (USD 2 billion) into motion. Korean shipbuilding equipment suppliers like Hyundai Heavy Industries Engine & Machinery, Sejin Heavy Industries, and K are direct beneficiaries of this long-cycle demand, and the stocks are already turning positive.
Hyundai Heavy Industries Engine & Machinery LONG
Sejin Heavy Industries LONG
KOSDAQ to rally in August.
By the end of July, capex uncertainty will be resolved through big tech earnings, clearing the way for an August rally. The KOSDAQ index should rise about 1,000 points from the 755 area toward the 800 level, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix recovering about 15%.
KOSDAQ Index LONG
Samsung Electro-Mechanics oversold bounce.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics has fallen so much that the market now considers it excessively oversold; the stock is showing a rebound in after-hours trading, suggesting a near-term corrective bounce.
009150.KS LONG
Buy beaten sectors if rates fall.
Deeply beaten-down stocks in defense, shipbuilding, semiconductor equipment/materials, and biotech are poised for a sharp rebound by September. The essential precondition is that interest rates must decline, which would unlock a powerful rotation into these oversold sectors.
PKX LONG
Korea Defense sector LONG
Korea Semiconductor Equipment & Materials sector LONG
Korea Biotech Sector LONG
Avoid leveraged ETFs, speculative casino.
The proliferation of 2x leveraged ETFs has turned the Korean market into a speculative casino, trapping retail investors in extreme volatility and forcing coin-toss behavior. These instruments should be avoided until trading restrictions are imposed and market structure improves.
Korean 2x leveraged ETFs AVOID
HIGH
10:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
EWY
▾
MED
Buy KOSPI below 6,800 on valuation
Korean stocks are set to rebound because macro conditions are improving: U.S. inflation is slowing, reducing tightening fears; the Korean won is strengthening (potentially to around 1,430 won per dollar); the Korea-U.S. interest rate gap is narrowing; and foreign equity selling is moderating. A stronger won historically pushes Korean stocks higher.
EWY LONG
MED
09:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
000660.KS
005930.KS
Korean Leveraged ETFs
▾
HIGH
Short-term bounce in semis, buy to trim.
Korean semiconductor large-caps SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have fallen sharply without any meaningful bounce, SK Hynix has formed a double bottom, foreign investors are accumulating futures and large caps, and upcoming global tech earnings could be a positive catalyst; a short-term technical rebound is highly probable, and he recommends buying in portions for the bounce while planning to trim exposure on the rebound.
000660.KS LONG
005930.KS LONG
Avoid leveraged ETFs in volatile markets.
Leveraged ETFs decay in volatile, sideways markets and are unsuitable for holding beyond a very short period; the current Korean market environment with low confidence and whip-saw moves makes holding them especially costly, so investors should reduce or avoid leveraged ETFs.
Korean Leveraged ETFs AVOID
HIGH
09:16
Jul 20
Jul 20
BNO
TSM
▾
HIGH
Oil supply disruption fears rising.
The US-Iran conflict escalation and Iran's threat to control Strait of Hormuz have caused a collapse in market sentiment that shipping will normalize, with prediction market odds dropping from 70% to 8%. The oil forward curve has moved up across the board, reflecting increasing bearishness about supply returning quickly, which is pushing Brent prices higher and edging them toward the April/May highs.
BNO LONG
TSMC aggressively expanding to capture demand.
TSMC is adding $100 billion to its Arizona investments to meet very strong multi-year demand from US customers for advanced technology. The company has technology leadership, manufacturing excellence, customer trust, and does not compete with customers, making it the first choice. Management is determined to capture all growth and leave no room for competitors, with a strong conviction in the semiconductor megatrend.
TSM LONG
HIGH
09:04
Jul 20
Jul 20
005930.KS
000660.KS
ORCL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Korean semis cheap if AI cycle structural.
The current correction in Korean semiconductor stocks (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix) is driven by momentum overcrowding and unwinding, not a fundamental breakdown. If the AI capex cycle is structural and not a typical cyclical peak, then current valuations of around 5x P/E are unjustifiably low. The deceleration in earnings growth from extreme levels does not signify a peak under this structural view. Foreign selling is likely near exhaustion, and a recovery in the relative strength of semis vs. hyperscalers could trigger renewed foreign buying. Strong margins and AI-related demand support the case.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Oracle risky if AI capex cycle falters.
Oracle is the canary in the coal mine for an AI capex cycle crack. It is heavily leveraged, and if the AI spending cycle weakens, Oracle would be the first to face bankruptcy risk. Other hyperscalers have diversified revenue and are less vulnerable, making Oracle particularly fragile.
ORCL AVOID
HIGH
08:22
Jul 20
Jul 20
000660.KS FLIP
SK Hynix ADR
EWY
005930.KS
▾
HIGH
SK hynix oversold by supply distortions, cheap.
SK hynix is fundamentally strong with memory prices soaring (DDR5 server contract prices 2.5x spot, rising spot prices) and robust hyperscale demand. The stock has been unduly beaten down by local supply distortions (leveraged ETFs, ADR dynamics) and negative sentiment around memory hegemony. It has underperformed Micron by 20% over two months despite similar valuation (5.8x P/E local, 7.3x ADR, in line with Micron). This supply-driven discount should reverse once big tech earnings/LTA guidance reassure the market, offering a significant rebound opportunity.
000660.KS LONG
SK Hynix ADR LONG
KOSPI must reclaim 7,000 within 3-4 weeks.
KOSPI index has broken its 20-week moving average and is at a critical juncture. If it can regain the 7,000 level within 3–4 weeks, supported by strong memory earnings and big tech guidance, the correction is normal and the uptrend can resume. Failure to recover 7,000 within about a month would signal a mid-term downtrend. The critical technical support is the prior low around 6,449.
EWY WATCH
Kimi K3 crash proves memory shortage, buy.
The Kimi K3 server crash demonstrates that advanced memory demand is robust and that there is a severe semiconductor shortage — the model could not handle user load because of insufficient server infrastructure. This confirms that memory demand will continue to grow, benefiting Korean memory leaders. The market's negative knee-jerk reaction is a misinterpretation; the event is a buying opportunity for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
005930.KS LONG
HIGH
08:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
005930.KS
000660.KS
196170.KQ
EWY
034020.KS FLIP
▾
MED
Shareholder return catalysts may spark rebound
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are expected to announce stronger-than-anticipated shareholder return policies, which could lift valuations and fuel a share price rebound despite recent declines. An analyst report suggests the market is underestimating the magnitude of the coming shareholder return measures, and the CEO of SK Hynix has expressed strong confidence in future stock price recovery.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Bonus issue and KOSDAQ stay are positives
Alteogen announced a 0.3-share bonus issue and decided to remain on KOSDAQ instead of transferring to KOSPI. In a difficult market these are seen as positive catalysts because the market had previously penalized the KOSPI transfer idea, and remaining on KOSDAQ allows Alteogen to maintain its leadership position as a top-tier stock on that exchange.
196170.KQ LONG
Oversold KOSPI due for a technical rebound
The KOSPI has corrected about 30% from its peak while many stocks have halved, yet corporate fundamentals have not deteriorated to that extent. The index is now near the 120-day moving average around 6,500–6,630, and the guest expects a bounce back because historically such oversold conditions without fundamental breakdown eventually lead to a rebound, and most experts now agree the market is oversold.
EWY LONG
Nuclear energy theme breaking, avoid exposure
Korean nuclear energy stocks, which had been market leaders, are breaking down as the investment thesis unravels. In the US, nuclear stocks were crushed first because the economics are unfavorable—even operating for 60 years, nuclear power is more expensive than solar once total costs are included, and without subsidies the sector cannot survive. The same logic is now spreading to Korean names, causing sharp declines and heavy supply breakdown.
034020.KS AVOID
010120.KS AVOID
Shipbuilding and defense leadership is breaking
Shipbuilding and defense sectors, which had been leading the market for 2–4 years, are now breaking down as their long-cycle momentum fades. These previously dominant sectors are no longer reliable and are experiencing sharp corrections, signaling that the leadership rotation is under heavy pressure.
Korean shipbuilding sector AVOID
Korean defense sector AVOID
Monitor Micron for Korean semiconductor rebound signal
Micron Technology is being watched as a leading indicator for Korean semiconductor stocks. If Micron holds above its 120-day moving average or recent high, it would signal a potential turnaround for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Its price action is a key signal to monitor in the near term.
MU WATCH
Financials act as defensive in bear market
In a weak overall market, financial stocks like KB Financial are acting as typical defensive plays, rising while most other sectors fall. This defensive rotation can offer relative stability and is a characteristic behavior during a bearish phase.
105560.KS LONG
MED
07:42
Jul 20
Jul 20
BNO
Equities
▾
HIGH
Bias is higher oil prices.
The Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed and oil infrastructure is being targeted again, marking material escalation. The bias is clearly higher oil prices from here, though likely not reaching $120/bbl on Brent due to demand destruction, China demand loss, and alternative supply from Saudi Arabia and US exports.
BNO LONG
Worrying backdrop for equities.
Higher oil prices and wobbles in the tech trade create a very worrying backdrop for equities, negative for growth. Equities are unattractive in this environment.
Equities AVOID
HIGH
07:12
Jul 20
Jul 20
RYAAY
BABA 1ST
SMH
▾
MED
Ryanair hedged, consolidation lifts shares.
Ryanair is well-hedged on jet fuel at $67/barrel, better than competitors, and will benefit from industry consolidation and capacity reductions that drive higher fares, positioning it to gain market share as weaker airlines struggle with unhedged fuel costs.
RYAAY LONG
Alibaba AI model progress drives shares.
Alibaba's latest AI model ranks second only to Anthropic's model on a key benchmark, driving expectations for its AI capabilities and pushing the stock higher.
BABA LONG
Chinese AI models threaten chip demand.
Cheaper and more efficient Chinese AI models from companies like Moonshot AI raise questions about the sustainability of massive spending by US hyperscalers and future hardware demand, posing a risk to semiconductor stocks.
SMH WATCH
MED
06:46
Jul 20
Jul 20
EWY 1ST
NVDA 1ST
005930.KS 1ST
COPPER 1ST
EWT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Korea and Taiwan lead AI infrastructure returns.
Korea and Taiwan are the strongest plays on the AI infrastructure buildout in Asia-Pacific. Unlike China, these markets can deliver profits and returns from the AI capex cycle, making them attractive equity markets.
EWY LONG
EWT LONG
Nvidia, SK Hynix, Samsung on AI backlog.
AI infrastructure demand remains extremely strong with over $2 trillion in backlog. This supports Nvidia, SK Hynix and Samsung at least through 2026-2027, keeping the story rolling in the near term.
NVDA LONG
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Technology dampens copper and nickel demand.
Technology improvements are boosting energy and material efficiency, reducing the commodity intensity per unit of output. Despite demand, copper and nickel face headwinds as efficiency gains wear down incremental needs, warranting caution.
COPPER AVOID
NICKEL AVOID
India and Eurozone hedge AI bubble.
The European Monetary Union and India are the biggest anti-AI trades. They offer volume and size to accommodate a sizable hedge if the AI bubble deflates. He is still positioned in India for this reason.
INDA LONG
EZU LONG
Tencent leads AI applications over US rivals.
Chinese large consumer internet companies like Tencent will clearly beat American companies in creating clever AI applications, leveraging Chinese flexibility, hard work, and strong consumer AI optimism.
TCEHY LONG
HIGH
06:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
034730.KS 1ST
402340.KS
000660.KS
475150.KS
010060.KS
▾
MED
Buy SK group at technical support cautiously.
SK Hynix, SK Inc., and SK Square are holding above their July 14 lows and previous trend breakout levels, creating technical support zones. A double-bottom formation is possible, and for investors with very light positions, scaling in at these support levels with tight stop losses offers a low-risk bounce trade. The market is oversold and fearful, but buying can be attempted gradually only if one has the capacity to manage risk and cut losses short.
034730.KS LONG
402340.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Renewables attractive on power demand and war.
Renewable energy stocks benefit from structural growth in data center power demand, an intensifying heat wave driving electricity consumption, and a prolonged Middle East war pushing up oil prices, making alternatives more attractive. The theme is fundamentally intact even though overall market weakness has pulled these stocks back from early session gains.
475150.KS WATCH
010060.KS WATCH
322000.KS WATCH
KOSDAQ may rally if policy catalyst emerges.
KOSDAQ has fallen sharply and any well-designed government support policy could act as a catalyst for a rebound, although the proposed league system may hurt excluded stocks. Investors should watch for concrete policy announcements as a potential trigger to enter beaten-down KOSDAQ names.
KOSDAQ Index WATCH
MED
06:05
Jul 20
Jul 20
EWY
000660.KS
005930.KS
▾
HIGH
Won strengthening drives KOSPI rebound
The Korean Won has strengthened significantly in July, with the largest drop among G20 currencies. Historically, when the Won strengthens, Korean stocks rise unconditionally. The current Won decline is comparable to late 2022 when the market bottomed and then rallied. Park Se-ik expects the KOSPI to recover from around 6,800 to 7,500-8,500 within a few months, and is personally adding to positions.
EWY LONG
Hold semiconductor stocks on supply shortage
Memory chip prices are at abnormally high levels due to severe demand-supply imbalance driven by AI, with little new supply added for years. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won expects the demand-supply gap to widen further next year, with AI alone demanding 60-100% more memory. Despite Chey's call to increase supply to avoid geopolitical pressure, Park Se-ik advises investors to hold and endure through the volatility because the supply shortage ensures continued high earnings for memory makers, with SK hynix projected to earn 270-400 trillion won in profits. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will benefit.
000660.KS LONG
005930.KS LONG
HIGH
06:01
Jul 20
Jul 20
KS 1ST
SS 1ST
ABB 1ST
TSM
SOX 1ST
▾
HIGH
SK Hynix hurt by efficient AI
Chinese AI models from Alibaba and Moonshot are much more memory-efficient, which structurally hurts the use case for high-bandwidth memory, putting pressure on SK Hynix's demand outlook.
KS SHORT
Moutai catalyst from price hike
Kweichow Moutai is finally raising the price of its flagship product after a long stock slide, supported by national team buying and a broader laggard rebound in Chinese big caps.
SS LONG
ABB Robotics division booming
ABB Robotics closed its highest production quarter in history, sees demand picking up in Q3, expects a fantastic 2026, and is progressing toward closing the SoftBank spinoff deal in H2 2026, all while benefiting from a localized supply chain and AI-driven customization.
ABB LONG
TSMC strong demand and expansion
TSMC continues to see very strong, multi-year structural demand from customers, is expanding aggressively with $100 billion additional U.S. investment, and intends to capture all available demand, leaving no food on the table for competitors.
TSM LONG
Buy the dip in US chips
The correction in U.S. chip stocks is profit-taking; the AI race is heating up, demand is still outstripping supply for hardware, and the earnings season should confirm robust demand. This creates a buy-the-dip opportunity in U.S. semiconductor stocks.
SOX LONG
Overweight Taiwan and Korea tech
Taiwan and South Korea are in the sweet spot of the global AI supply chain, with massive over-demand relative to supply for their products and no indication that this will change in the near term.
KOSPI LONG
EWT LONG
Hold gold and high-dividend equities
With U.S. core inflation still running hot and stagflation risk present, investors should hold hedges such as gold and high-dividend equity strategies, both of which have performed well and can make decent money in 2026.
GLD LONG
High Dividend Equity Strategies LONG
Avoid Chinese equities now
China does not yet have clear earnings visibility or profitability, with sectors like EVs pricing for market share rather than profit, making it unattractive relative to other markets where earnings growth is more visible.
CSI 300 Index / Chinese equities AVOID
Chinese hardware ecosystem benefits from AI
The arrival of best-in-class Chinese AI models is a net positive for China's domestic hardware ecosystem, including cloud computing providers, data center operators and semiconductor manufacturers, which should see an uplift in demand.
Chinese AI hardware ecosystem (cloud/data centers/semis) LONG
Alibaba wins from new AI model
Alibaba is a clear beneficiary from the well-received new Qwen AI model, triggering a rally in the stock after a long period of underperformance and supporting a laggard bounce in Chinese tech.
BABA LONG
HIGH
05:03
Jul 20
Jul 20
WTI
▾
MED
Oil rising on Hormuz supply disruption fears
US-Iran conflict escalation is disrupting Strait of Hormuz traffic expectations. Prediction markets show odds of Hormuz normalization by September 1 collapsed from 70% to 8%, while oil's forward curve has moved up across tenors, reflecting increasingly bearish sentiment on supply normalization. This is edging oil prices back toward the highs seen in April/May.
WTI LONG
MED
04:45
Jul 20
Jul 20
005930.KS
EWY
000660.KS
010140.KS 1ST
012330.KS
▾
HIGH
Semiconductor oversold, strong rebound imminent
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have suffered an excessive sell-off despite ongoing AI-driven demand and strong supply-side shortages. SK Hynix collapsed 43% from highs, pricing in earnings that are far worse than realistic even with near-term softness. This extreme panic and oversold condition historically leads to a powerful rebound; the stocks have already discounted very negative outcomes and are poised for a sharp reversal.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
KOSPI poised to bounce from extremes
The KOSPI is testing the critical 120-day moving average and has formed a potential double bottom. Extreme fear and panic, with investors refusing to even check their accounts, mark historically reliable turning points. The market has priced in maximum pessimism and is set for a sharp bounce; breaking above 7,000 would end the downtrend.
EWY LONG
Shipbuilding earnings strong, chart turning up
Korean shipbuilding stocks are showing constructive chart patterns (base-building, a potential clean rotation) and earnings are expected to remain strong. Despite good news on orders and backlog, the market has not yet recognized the momentum, creating an opportunity before the move gains traction. He highlights Samsung Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries as plays.
010140.KS LONG
329180.KS LONG
Hyundai Mobis shows strong relative strength
Hyundai Mobis is showing exceptional relative strength in a difficult market, consolidating sideways rather than falling. This resilience suggests the stock should attract attention and outperform once sentiment improves.
012330.KS LONG
Wait for KB Financial pullback to buy
Bank stocks like KB Financial have surged recently on defensive rotation and strong earnings, but now they are overbought and investors are already shifting out. A better entry would be after a pullback to the lower end of the recent box range (around 160,000 won for KB Financial). The current price is not a chase point.
105560.KS WATCH
Deeply oversold Samchundang rebounds on catalyst
Samchundang Pharm crashed from 1.28 million won to 170,000 won, losing nearly 90%. A positive FDA regulatory milestone (pre-NDA confirmation) triggered a limit-up move, demonstrating that deeply oversold stocks can bounce sharply on even minor good news. He believes this signals wider hope in beaten-down sectors like biotech.
000250.KQ LONG
Buy LIG Nex1 after Q2 earnings dip
Defense stocks (especially LIG Nex1) are fundamentally strong but may see short-term weakness into Q2 results. He advises waiting until after the Q2 earnings release to buy, as the order backlog and earnings will recover strongly from Q3 onward. LIG Nex1 has notably good consensus estimates.
079550.KS LONG
HIGH
04:41
Jul 20
Jul 20
GLD 1ST
Cryptocurrencies
005930.KS 1ST
BTC
CASH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Underweight bonds, gold, crypto; overweight cash
Until the Fed clearly signals the end of its rate-hiking cycle, investors should underweight bonds, gold, and virtual assets. Cash should be overweight to capture future opportunities when rate hikes end and risk assets rebound. The ongoing AI infrastructure spending is keeping growth and rates elevated, making these assets unattractive near-term.
GLD AVOID
Cryptocurrencies AVOID
CASH LONG
Near-term headwinds for Korean memory stocks
Korean memory semiconductor stocks are entering a near-term difficult adjustment phase due to AI capex saturation fears, China's rapid AI catch-up (e.g., Kimi K3), and increasing capital discipline among hyperscalers. The market is questioning how long massive investment can continue, leading to stock corrections. Near-term sentiment is weak, though long-term fundamentals are still acknowledged.
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
Bitcoin cycle is Fed rate cycle
Bitcoin's so-called 4-year cycle is actually an interest-rate cycle driven by Fed monetary policy, not the halving. The major corrections in 2018 and 2022 coincided with Fed rate hikes and rising Treasury yields, while halving-based narratives are secondary. Investors should track Fed rate signals rather than the block reward schedule to time Bitcoin.
BTC WATCH
HIGH
04:34
Jul 20
Jul 20
AUSE 1ST
TSM 1ST
6503.T 1ST
005930.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Oil surge lifts Australian energy producers.
Brent crude oil has surged above $90 per barrel, rising from $70 at the start of the month, due to the escalating US-Iran conflict. This price spike directly benefits Australian energy producers.
AUSE LONG
TSMC expands capex, dominance remains.
TSMC is seeing very strong multi-year structural demand, particularly from key US customers using advanced tech. The company is adding another $100 billion to its Arizona investments to support customer growth and intends to leave no food on the table for competitors. Its technology leadership, manufacturing excellence, and not competing with customers make it the first choice.
TSM LONG
Merger and defense exports boost Mitsubishi.
Mitsubishi Electric is merging with Toshiba and Rohm to consolidate three of the world's top power chip suppliers, eliminating wasted development resources and allowing the combined company to compete globally. Additionally, Japan's lifting of defense export bans will significantly boost its defense and space business, with revenue targeted to double to ¥800 billion by 2030.
6503.T LONG
Korean memory stocks cheap, demand strong.
Despite the threat from Chinese AI and the unwinding of retail leverage, South Korean memory makers remain dominant near-term due to locked-in long-term pricing agreements and US export controls. The recent selloff has made valuations compelling, with some names trading at 6-7x forward multiples. The market trajectory is expected to be higher by year-end once technical headwinds fade.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Chinese AI stocks attractive second half.
In the second half of the year, a narrative shift will favor the Chinese AI ecosystem as Chinese authorities are quite supportive. China stocks are worth keeping an eye on as a relatively neglected market, offering a hedge alongside the South Korea trade which may experience turbulence.
Chinese AI stocks LONG
South Korea financials offer value, stability.
The South Korean financial sector offers compelling valuations, significant recovery potential, and strong fee income from M&A and trading activity. It provides a combination of defensiveness, valuation appeal, and earnings stability, making it a favored sector heading into the second half of the year.
KORU LONG
Chinese hardware wins from AI demand.
Chinese hardware companies—cloud computing, chipmakers, and data center providers—are the most likely winners from China's AI acceleration. If Chinese AI models can be so good so fast, they will drive an exclusive amount of demand for domestic hardware providers.
CQQQ LONG
Hang Seng Tech deep value play.
The Hang Seng Tech index has sold off much more than the rest of the world, making it an interesting value play. Depressed valuations and incremental interest following new AI model releases from Chinese firms like Alibaba are drawing investor attention back to this cohort.
KWEB LONG
Brent oil outlook bullish on disruptions.
Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with peak summer demand in the US and Asia, are creating a bullish outlook for oil prices. With flows constricted and high global demand, the oil market is expected to remain tight and prices are seen moving higher, potentially toward $100.
BNO LONG
HIGH
04:23
Jul 20
Jul 20
EWY 1ST
000660.KS FLIP
005930.KS FLIP
329180.KS
012450.KS
▾
HIGH
KOSPI could surge to 9,000 points
Korea's current situation mirrors the 1980s, when low oil, low rates, and a weak won generated a massive trade surplus that drove the KOSPI from 200 to 1,000 (a 5x rally). Today, AI semiconductor exports are driving a similar trade surplus, and the US geopolitical realignment favors Korea, setting the stage for a long-term bull market that could take the KOSPI from 2,500 toward 9,000.
EWY LONG
Memory stocks ready for technical rebound
Despite the recent sharp correction in memory stocks driven by supply-and-demand issues and a deceleration in DRAM price growth (from +95% QoQ in Q1 to an expected +5-10% in Q4), the downside is largely priced in. A technical rebound is likely in the near term, though upside from here will be more limited than in the first half. Investors should use rallies to adjust weightings.
000660.KS LONG
Samsung is safer diversified semiconductor play
Samsung Electronics is a safer semiconductor play than pure memory companies because it is diversified across foundry, handsets, and memory. This portfolio diversification provides a buffer during memory downturns, and Samsung's foundry business is relatively better positioned than Intel, with its Texas plant providing a geopolitical buffer. Additionally, Samsung recently regained the top spot in smartphones, and a stabilization in DRAM prices would also benefit its handset business.
005930.KS LONG
Korean shipbuilders dip is buying opportunity
Korean shipbuilders have underperformed Japanese peers and recently dipped after losing a Canadian submarine order to Germany, but this pullback is a buying opportunity. The lost deal actually enhanced the reputation of Korean submarines (Dosan Ahn Chang-ho class), and Germany's ThyssenKrupp lacks additional production capacity, meaning future orders will shift to Korea. Additionally, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is developing SMR-powered ships with TerraPower, and the entire sector is being transformed by a shift toward naval shipbuilding, providing long-term growth.
329180.KS LONG
042660.KS LONG
Hanwha Aerospace leads Korea's space program
Hanwha Aerospace is the core company for Korea's space ambitions. The government plans to grow the space industry from 11 trillion won to 70 trillion won and develop a Korean Starlink for 6G communications. Hanwha Aerospace manufactures the launch vehicles (rockets) needed to deploy satellites, making it indispensable to this national project.
012450.KS LONG
LIG Nex1 benefits from missile defense demand
LIG Nex1 is a key beneficiary of Korea's world-class missile defense system, which includes the Cheongung-II (96% intercept rate) and L-SAM. The company's semiconductor technology heritage (spun off from LG Innotek) gives it an edge in guidance and precision. Strong global demand for air defense, especially from Middle Eastern nations, provides a long runway of orders.
079550.KS LONG
Posco Holdings value play with rare earths
Posco Holdings is a compelling value play trading at just 0.4x P/B with improving earnings thanks to anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese steel. Additionally, the company is shifting focus to rare earth development through Posco International, and its battery materials business is turning profitable. This diversification into resources and rare earths makes it a more attractive long-term story than a pure steel play.
005490.KS LONG
KAI worth watching for KF-21 exports
Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) is worth monitoring because of the KF-21 fighter jet program and the move toward manned-unmanned composite combat systems. However, valuations are already elevated, making shipbuilders a more comfortable choice from a valuation perspective.
047810.KS WATCH
HIGH
03:26
Jul 20
Jul 20
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
10h
BTC
▾
HIGH
Sellers exhausted, Bitcoin resilient, inflows return.
Bitcoin is showing relative strength despite negative macro and regulatory news because the selling pressure has already been exhausted in Q1-Q2. US Bitcoin spot ETF flows have turned to net inflows for two consecutive weeks, though small, marking an improvement from record outflows in June. Long-term holder supply has hit an all-time high, historically a bullish signal that the market is bottoming. On the regulatory front, the Clarity Bill faces political gridlock and expectations have fallen sharply, yet Bitcoin holds the $64,000 level, suggesting the market has already priced in the bad news. Additional support comes from traditional financial institutions like Bank of America making strategic hires for digital assets, indicating long-term fundamental demand. Altogether, the supply-demand dynamics and resilient price action point to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
BTC LONG
HIGH
03:21
Jul 20
Jul 20
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
11h
SPY
QQQ
SMH
AAPL
005930.KS
▾
HIGH
Buy the dip in US stocks.
The decline in US equities is a healthy correction and sector rotation, not a trend reversal. Fundamentals remain strong, AI capex by hyperscalers continues, and the second half of the year will see a recovery. Investors must allocate to US equities on this dip.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
AI semiconductor oversold, buy the dip.
The sell-off in AI-related semiconductors is irrational and driven by sentiment and leveraged products, not fundamentals. AI hardware is very broad (beyond just memory) and will continue to see strong demand as hyperscaler capex remains elevated. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decline of 20% is a temporary summer correction and a buying opportunity.
SMH LONG
Buy Apple, safe AI play.
Apple avoids the capex debate because it does not heavily invest in AI infrastructure. HSBC upgraded to buy, and the rollout of Apple Intelligence and new Siri features will act as catalysts. Apple is smartly managing its ecosystem and can acquire distressed AI competitors, making it a safe haven within tech.
AAPL LONG
Buy Samsung Electronics on extreme valuation.
Samsung Electronics has fallen 32% from its highs, and its forward PBR has dropped to 3.8x, an extreme low. The sell-off is overdone with no matching fundamental deterioration. Upcoming earnings and shareholder return plans will support a rebound. This is a strong buying opportunity for value-oriented investors.
005930.KS LONG
Buy SK hynix on overdone sell-off.
SK hynix has corrected 38% from its peak, but HBM demand remains robust and long-term contract protections are stronger than in past cycles. The fear around memory peak-out is excessive. With earnings still strong and LTA locking in future revenue, the stock is a buy on this oversold condition.
000660.KS LONG
KOSPI rebound to 8000 is likely.
The KOSPI index has fallen to a PBR of 5.8x, a level seen only during financial crises, despite no systemic event. The extreme correction will invite smart money accumulation. A technical rebound to at least 8000 points is likely as panic subsides and positive catalysts from earnings emerge.
EWY LONG
Buy shipbuilders on US defense orders.
US defense and naval demand is flowing to Korean shipbuilders. Hanwha Philly Shipyard won a ~3 trillion won contract for two US missile test measurement ships under the Golden Project. HD Hyundai signed a strategic partnership with a US C company for offshore structures, potentially including floating data centers. This marks a positive cycle for the sector.
042660.KS LONG
329180.KS LONG
Buy Korean large-cap biopharma now.
Despite recent underperformance versus US biotech, Korean large-cap biopharma companies (Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, SK Biopharm) have strong R&D pipelines, BD capabilities, and global competitiveness. Q4 will bring major academic conferences and potential tech transfer deals that will re-rate these stocks. Current levels offer an attractive long-term entry point.
207940.KS LONG
068270.KS LONG
326030.KS LONG
Accumulate Bitcoin for long term.
Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase. ETF inflows have turned positive after a heavy outflow period, and the supply held by long-term holders is at an all-time high. The 4-year cycle points to a bottom around November, and the asset remains well-positioned for the next upswing when interest rate headwinds ease.
BTC LONG
Hold Solana for strong returns.
Solana has been a strong performer historically and remains a favored personal holding. Its ecosystem and technology continue to attract users, offering good upside potential alongside Bitcoin.
SOL LONG
HIGH
03:02
Jul 20
Jul 20
XLE
SPCX 1ST
SOXX
▾
MED
US energy benefits from Hormuz disruption.
Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is prompting oil and gas buyers to shift away from the Persian Gulf toward safer suppliers, directly benefiting the United States as a stable energy source. Long-term economic pressure on Iran will reinforce this shift.
XLE LONG
SpaceX overvalued, share unlock uncertainty.
SpaceX's $1.75 trillion valuation is difficult to justify without a fundamental change in thesis. Upcoming share unlock, uncertainty around Starship and first earnings, and active short sellers create further downside risk.
SPCX AVOID
Semiconductor sector overvalued, profit-taking risk.
Semiconductor stocks are priced for perfection after massive rallies (index up over 100% in 12 months, Intel up 150% YTD), with earnings bar set very high. Any disappointment could trigger significant profit taking, especially as chip bottlenecks may ease.
SOXX AVOID
MED
02:29
Jul 20
Jul 20
EEM
XLF 1ST
IWM 1ST
FXY 1ST
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid emerging markets, prefer developed
Underweight emerging markets because the recent rally has been concentrated in AI names, reducing diversification benefits, while China faces domestic demand destruction and U.S. resilience is superior.
EEM AVOID
Buy U.S. financials on broadening trade
Traditional banks are winning back market share from private credit lenders because investor money going into private capital has slowed, concerns about excessive leverage have risen, and banks have built competitive lending pools; this, together with strong consumer and business borrowing, supports the sector.
XLF LONG
Buy Russell 2000 on U.S. resilience
Broadening into U.S. mid-cap equities via Russell 2000 to capture the benefits of U.S. economic resilience and the rotation away from large-cap AI beneficiaries.
IWM LONG
Yen set to strengthen on repatriation
A great yen homecoming is underway as Japan now offers yield and domestic assets produce returns, making it logical for overseas Japanese capital to return; this should strengthen the yen.
FXY LONG
Buy U.S. energy and materials stocks
Rotating into energy and materials as part of the second-half broadening trade; U.S. resilience and reasonable oil prices support these real asset sectors.
XLE LONG
Buy long-dated Treasuries for flattening
Favor U.S. long-end duration because inflation expectations are well anchored, the Fed is reinforcing price stability, and credit conditions remain OK; expect yields to move toward 4.25% before 4.75%, leading to a flatter curve.
TLT LONG
HIGH
02:22
Jul 20
Jul 20
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
12h
000660.KS FLIP
005930.KS
KODEX 1ST
▾
HIGH
Samsung to outperform SK Hynix on gap.
Historical pattern shows when SK Hynix market cap approaches Samsung Electronics too closely (gap narrows to 20% or less), it signals a sharp semiconductor correction. Currently the gap is extremely narrow, and Lee argues it must widen to around 80% (Samsung market cap 1.2x SK Hynix) for market stability. Samsung has support from its smartphone business (Apple hitting new highs) and lower beta, while SK Hynix's peak HBM-driven margins are unsustainable. Excessive leveraged ETF activity has artificially compressed the gap, creating a mispricing. Betting on gap widening is a trade: long Samsung, short SK Hynix.
000660.KS SHORT
005930.KS LONG
Avoid SK Hynix leveraged ETFs.
The massive trading volume in SK Hynix single-stock leveraged ETFs (KODEX, TIGER) is fueling excessive volatility, draining liquidity from other stocks, and preventing the Samsung-SK Hynix gap from normalizing. Stopping purchases of these leveraged products alone would help stabilize the market. Moreover, if the gap widens and Hynix underperforms, these leveraged instruments will likely suffer amplified losses.
KODEX AVOID
HIGH
02:04
Jul 20
Jul 20
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
12h
SK Biopharm
KOSDAQ 150 Healthcare Index
068270.KS 1ST
Samsung Bioepis Holdings
▾
MED
Korean large-cap pharma to innovate in 3 years.
Korean large-cap pharma/biotech companies like Celltrion, SK Biopharm, and Samsung Bioepis Holdings have the capital, BD capabilities, and R&D manpower to develop innovative first-in-class drugs. They are expected to produce novel therapies within about 3 years, matching China's rapid growth trajectory. These firms already have global tech-transfer track records and are building the ecosystem despite current stock underperformance.
SK Biopharm LONG
068270.KS LONG
Samsung Bioepis Holdings LONG
Korean biotech sector to rebound in Q4.
Korean pharma/biotech sector is cheap and under supply-driven selling, but recovery is expected from late Q3/early Q4. Catalysts include the ESMO conference in October (which typically sparks interest), historically higher global big pharma tech-transfer deal volume in Q4, and potential KOSDAQ rebalancing announcement around September-October that could improve sentiment and liquidity. Extreme decoupling from global biotech (IBB) adds reversion potential.
KOSDAQ 150 Healthcare Index LONG
MED
01:49
Jul 20
Jul 20
HPE 1ST
CSCO 1ST
GS 1ST
GLD
SILVER
▾
HIGH
Buy AI infrastructure value chain stocks
The real AI opportunity is not in LLMs or models but in the entire AI infrastructure value chain: chips, CPUs, memory, hard drives, networking, air conditioning, racks, copper, transformers, bulldozers, and the financing to build it all. Demand has no natural limit, and this buildout will be a massive decade-long wave, similar to the internet infrastructure boom. Specific beneficiaries include Hewlett Packard (hardware), Cisco (networking), and Goldman Sachs (financing the buildout).
HPE LONG
CSCO LONG
GS LONG
Accumulate gold under $3,500, silver under $50
Gold is for war: countries buy before a war and sell during it. Now two big countries are selling gold, creating pressure. Gold near $3,500 is 'the roof of the basement' and a buying opportunity. Silver under $50, especially near $40, is attractive to accumulate slowly over a couple of years. After a quiet period, precious metals will eventually surge again.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
Avoid Bitcoin and legacy crypto assets
Crypto has lost its original anarchist outsider appeal and is now part of the Wall Street system, which will drain it. Existing older crypto assets are unsafe due to rampant theft and anonymity. While stablecoins and new use cases may emerge, the old stuff will dwindle, making it a bad time to hold crypto.
BTC AVOID
HIGH
01:39
Jul 20
Jul 20
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
12h
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
SK hynix oversold, cheap, demand intact.
SK hynix has dropped excessively by 43% from its high, similar to the 2022 deficit transition, yet the company is highly profitable, DRAM prices remain firm, and the sell-off was driven by technical supply factors rather than fundamental deterioration. The Chinese AI model Kimi K3 does not reduce memory demand; lower costs may increase AI adoption and memory usage. Big tech capex continues to rise, and memory demand will persist. The stock is now undervalued and presents a buying opportunity.
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
01:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
119850.KQ 1ST
EWY
298020.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Institutions buying GNC Energy on earnings.
GNC Energy has seen meaningful institutional buying, likely driven by improving earnings. The company operates in auxiliary power (emergency generators), and its recent price action has held up well, with institutions continuing to accumulate.
119850.KQ LONG
KOSPI deeply oversold, bottom likely.
The KOSPI has corrected sharply with PER falling to around 5x, many stocks down 40-50% from highs, and unless a severe crisis occurs, a drop of more than 50% is unlikely. Selling pressure appears exhausted, and the market is oversold, so it should turn around from here.
EWY LONG
Hyosung TNC attractive after pullback.
Hyosung TNC, a spandex and specialty textile company, has pulled back to a level that is not unattractive. A recovery cycle in apparel/spandex could support the stock, and current pricing makes it reasonable to consider entry without it being strange.
298020.KS LONG
HIGH
01:07
Jul 20
Jul 20
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
13h
005930.KS
009150.KS
000660.KS
214430
▾
HIGH
AI chip cycle intact, accumulate on dips.
The AI-driven semiconductor cycle is a structural paradigm shift, not just liquidity-fueled; earnings and demand growth remain strong. Recent sharp price corrections have made Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix cheaper, creating a long-term accumulation opportunity. Despite retail sentiment damage, institutions and foreigners may step in as buyers. The market will re-evaluate the upcycle after Big Tech earnings.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Supply shortages support, hold position.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics benefits from persistent MLCC and FCBGA supply shortages through 2027, driven by AI-related component demand. A recent analyst report maintained a high target price, and the stock bounced from 120-day moving average support. Holding is appropriate ahead of Big Tech earnings, which should provide further upside catalyst.
009150.KS LONG
Limited downside, watch for order momentum.
Hanmi Vision stock has halved but downside appears limited with support levels holding. However, a meaningful turnaround requires proof of order momentum to regain market confidence and close the gap with competitor Hanmi Semiconductor. Watch for new order announcements as the catalyst for an upward move.
214430 WATCH
HIGH
00:57
Jul 20
Jul 20
005930.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Server DRAM shortage drives memory prices up
Server DRAM supply shortage is intensifying, with spot prices surging (64GB DDR5 spot up 146% vs June contract). Contract prices are expected to rise significantly in Q3, above the market-expected 15%, driven by B2B customer concentration, AI server demand, and new sovereign AI buyers from the Middle East. This is a structural demand shift, not a temporary spike. Memory makers are shifting focus to AI server customers. The market's concerns about LTA contracts and 2027 earnings downgrades are overblown; upcoming events like shareholder returns and partnerships with Big Tech will resolve these worries.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
00:48
Jul 20
Jul 20
042660.KS
091160.KS 1ST
329180.KS
005490.KS
051910.KS
▾
HIGH
Buy shipbuilding stocks on US defense orders
Korean shipbuilding and defense stocks have crashed 40–50% from peaks despite record backlogs and new multi-billion-dollar US defense orders. Hanwha Ocean just won a $2 billion contract to build missile tracking ships for the US Golden Dome program, and the US government is openly backing Korea-US shipbuilding cooperation. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries are similarly beaten down to levels that historically attract value buyers. The sector offers a powerful mean-reversion opportunity with a visible catalyst.
042660.KS LONG
329180.KS LONG
010140.KS LONG
Buy KODEX Semiconductor ETF on weakness
KODEX Semiconductor ETF offers a cheap, diversified way to average into Korean semiconductors. DRAM spot prices are still rising (server DDR5 up 10% this month), and the sell-off is purely supply/demand fear, not fundamental. Valuations have collapsed: Samsung Electronics at ~4x forward P/E, SK Hynix at ~4x, Micron at 6x – historically extreme. The ETF's lower per-share price allows retail investors to scale in gradually without committing large capital, making it an ideal vehicle to capture the eventual rebound.
091160.KS LONG
Buy steel and chemical stocks for AI demand
Steel and chemical companies are emerging as unexpected AI/data-center plays. AI data centers need massive structural frames (steel beams) and power-cable materials, while humanoid robots require specialty chemicals and lightweight materials. Korean steel makers (Dongkuk Steel, POSCO, Hyundai Steel) are seeing sell-out demand for data-center products, and chemical names (LG Chem, Lotte Chemical, Hanwha Solutions) are developing robot and semiconductor specialty materials. After years of depressed earnings, these cyclicals are posting improving results at rock-bottom valuations.
005490.KS LONG
051910.KS LONG
009830.KS LONG
001230.KS LONG
004020.KS LONG
011170.KS LONG
Accumulate Hyundai Motor and robot stocks
Hyundai Motor and robot-related stocks have been crushed (Hyundai Motor down ~44% from highs), but the upcoming Tesla earnings call will highlight humanoid robot progress, reigniting the physical-AI theme. Rather than chasing the beaten-down semiconductor complex, investors should start accumulating Hyundai Motor and domestic robot plays on dips as a next-leg play on AI's expansion into the physical world. The sell-off has created an attractive entry for medium-term positioning.
005380.KS LONG
Hold and buy Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have become irrationally cheap. Despite the market panic over China's Kimi K3 model and AI capex doubts, DRAM spot prices keep rising, supply shortages are intensifying into 2028, and corporate earnings are at record levels. The sell-off has pushed SK Hynix down ~38% from its peak and Samsung ~32%, pricing in a recession that is not happening. Investors should hold and add to positions — selling here would be a mistake, as rebounds from such oversold extremes have historically been powerful.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
00:47
Jul 20
Jul 20
Memory 1ST
▾
MED
Chinese AI efficiency threatens memory bull market.
Chinese AI models like Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 achieve extreme memory efficiency through software innovation, creating a clear negative for the ongoing bull market in memory chips. This efficiency pushes the memory market toward DRAM/DDR5 segments where China is more competitive and can bring new capacity to bear, threatening oversupply and weighing on memory pricing and demand.
Memory SHORT
MED
00:14
Jul 20
Jul 20
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
14h
005930.KS FLIP
000660.KS
005380.KS
EWY
▾
MED
Rotate into beaten-down Korean semiconductor leaders.
The massive sell-off in Korean semiconductor names driven by leveraged ETF liquidations is creating a buying opportunity. Forced selling and de-leveraging are the main drivers now, not fundamental deterioration. Investors holding non-core stocks should use this dip to rotate into core AI/semiconductor leaders like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which have fallen 34-43% from highs and are showing signs that the low may hold. The speaker believes that now is the time to act rather than wait, as the panic is abating and a rebound could follow once the low is confirmed.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Hyundai Motor robotics catalyst via Boston Dynamics.
Hyundai Motor's full acquisition of Boston Dynamics by exercising SoftBank's put option will accelerate internalization of robotics technology and IP, potentially speeding up the group's robotics roadmap. This development is a positive long-term catalyst even as the broader market struggles.
005380.KS LONG
Watch KOSPI low for rebound confirmation.
This week is critical to watch whether the KOSPI index and key semiconductor stocks (Samsung Electronics, SK hynix) hold their recent lows. A successful hold and a strong turning signal would indicate that the forced selling wave is over and a meaningful rebound can begin. The speaker highlights that the lows have not been broken yet and a buy-the-dip response at those levels would be a powerful positive signal.
EWY WATCH
MED
23:29
Jul 19
Jul 19
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
14h
KS
SMH 1ST
Power equipment and submarine cables
▾
HIGH
Memory demand spike, supply gap huge.
AI chip demand will surge 60-100% next year, but new fab supply will be negligible, creating a severe supply-demand gap; the market misread SK Group chairman's comments about price normalization as negative, when actually volume-driven growth and long-term industry sustainability heavily favor memory producers.
KS LONG
SMH LONG
AI infrastructure driving power equipment bottlenecks.
AI data center buildout will create bottlenecks in energy, power equipment, wires, and submarine cables; prices are already rising and submarine cables are in short supply, making these sectors direct beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure spending cycle.
Power equipment and submarine cables LONG
HIGH
22:55
Jul 19
Jul 19
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
15h
005930.KS
000660.KS
MU
EWY
KORU
▾
HIGH
Correction overdone, buy Korean memory and KOSPI.
The recent 30%+ correction in Korean semiconductor stocks and the KOSPI index is purely sentiment-driven without any fundamental crisis. AI capex is set to keep rising, memory companies now have ironclad long-term agreements (LTAs) that prevent order cancellations, and valuations have compressed to crisis levels—KOSPI P/E at 5.8x vs a 10-year average of 10x, implying a 40%+ earnings decline that is not supported by reality. The speaker expects the correction to be over and sees this as a buying opportunity, with smart money likely to start accumulating, targeting a bounce to around 8,000 on the KOSPI.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
MU LONG
EWY LONG
Cosmetics and biotech poised on rate stabilization.
Korean cosmetics and biotech sectors have been held down by persistent interest rate hike fears despite strong underlying exports and earnings. Once the market sees rate stabilization—whether through a hold signal or even a final hike that clears uncertainty—these sectors are poised to surge as the rate overhang is removed.
KORU LONG
Korean biotech sector LONG
HIGH
22:06
Jul 19
Jul 19
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
16h
SPY
SOX
AAPL
GOOGL
▾
HIGH
US equities bull market remains intact
The S&P 500 sell-off is just a healthy pause during a still-intact bull market, with strong economic data and positive earnings outlook. The speaker explicitly says investors must invest in U.S. equities in the second half.
SPY LONG
Semiconductor sell-off is irrational, temporary correction
The sell-off in AI hardware and semiconductors, including the 20% correction in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, is irrational and overdone. Hyperscaler capex is still being raised by Citi and BofA, and the correction is seen by BofA as a temporary seasonal move. The broader AI hardware theme, beyond memory chips, will rebound once earnings prove the strength.
SOX LONG
Apple benefits from AI without capex overhang
Apple has been upgraded from Hold to Buy by HSBC because it can escape the excessive capex debate, its Apple Intelligence and Siri launches will be positive catalysts, and the company is smartly managing its AI strategy.
AAPL LONG
Alphabet earnings will decide AI sentiment
Alphabet's earnings this week are the critical catalyst for sentiment on AI hardware. If Alphabet raises capex, it will clear the current misunderstanding and irrational negativity in semiconductors.
GOOGL WATCH
HIGH
22:05
Jul 19
Jul 19
SS 1ST
005930.KS
000660.KS FLIP
SOXX
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Defensive high-margin staple with pricing power
Kweichow Moutai is a high-quality staple with a resilient business model that gives it strong pricing power even in a weak economy. The company controls the supply of its base liquor (moutai spirit) by aging it for 5–10 years, which lets it manage the market supply and support premium pricing. Gross margins are near 90%, net margins high, and about 75% of earnings are paid as dividends, while the strong cash position is maintained. This makes it a defensive, stable-margin play that offers safety when growth stocks fall out of favor.
SS LONG
Memory spot surge to lift contract prices
Memory spot prices, especially for server DDR5 64GB, have surged far above current contract prices, creating a record gap. With AI and general server demand driving tight supply, contract prices are set to jump significantly in Q3 and Q4. This will drive strong earnings upgrades for memory producers. The recent sharp sell-off in semiconductor stocks was caused by positioning unwinds and overheating, not by fundamental deterioration. The huge deviation from long-term moving averages is already cooling, and earnings momentum remains robust. Therefore, the correction provides a buying opportunity in top Korean memory names.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Overheated semis to bounce after correction
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen 20% from its peak, driven by extreme overheating and forced deleveraging. The internal divergence from the 200-week moving average reached a 30-year extreme and is now normalizing. Fundamentals are intact, earnings seasons look solid, and forced selling is likely exhausted. The speaker explicitly expects the index to rise tonight, signaling a near-term bounce.
SOXX LONG
Bitcoin holds key support, institutional tailwinds
Bitcoin has held the 200-week moving average support despite escalating geopolitical tensions. Weekly ETF inflows turned positive, and institutional adoption is accelerating — Morgan Stanley is launching spot crypto trading via E*Trade, which could narrow crypto exchange valuation premiums. The probability of favorable US crypto legislation is low right now, creating a low-expectation environment where positive surprises could yield high returns. The price challenge at $65,000 suggests a high chance of a breakout.
BTC LONG
HIGH
21:30
Jul 19
Jul 19
Market Makers
16h
TLT 1ST
SPY 1ST
Brazilian Government Bonds (Tesouro Selic)
VT 1ST
US Dollar (USD)
▾
HIGH
US Treasuries safer than Brazil bonds.
US Treasury bonds are the true global risk-free asset. Over the past decade they returned more than 20% in reais, while Brazilian bonds (Selic) returned only 4% in dollars. Credit rating agencies rate Brazil's sovereign debt as riskier than Botswana's, Paraguay's, or Romania's. For capital preservation, Treasuries are a safer alternative.
TLT LONG
S&P 500 resilient through crises.
The S&P 500 has survived numerous crises over 100 years—high unemployment, wars, 9/11, COVID—because US institutions are strong and the market fosters constant innovation (creative destruction). This resilience makes it a reliable long-term compounding vehicle.
SPY LONG
Brazil bonds risky, not risk-free.
Brazilian government bonds (Selic, NTN-B) appear risk-free with high nominal rates, but they embed severe currency depreciation and credit risk. Their real returns in hard currency have been very poor, and the country's sovereign rating is lower than many frontier markets. Investors should not treat them as a safe haven.
Brazilian Government Bonds (Tesouro Selic) AVOID
Diversify globally via US markets.
Brazil represents only 1% of the global market. Investing through the US allows access to thousands of international companies and diversification across countries and currencies. Recency and home bias lead Brazilians to concentrate risk in a single volatile market; global diversification is a lifeboat.
VT LONG
Dollar preserves value, real depreciates.
The US dollar has maintained purchasing power since 1934, while Brazil has gone through 10 different currencies. The real is the volatile leg of USD/BRL. Approximately 20% of Brazilian household costs are dollarized, creating a mismatch. For long-term wealth preservation and purchasing power, a material dollar allocation is essential.
US Dollar (USD) LONG
HIGH
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