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DANIEL HADDAD: COMO PROTEGER O SEU DINHEIRO DO RISCO BRASIL? | Market Makers #388

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 19, 2026 at 21:30  |  2:02:22  |  Market Makers
Speakers
Daniel Haddad — CIO and Head of Commercial, Avenue

Summary

Daniel Haddad, CIO and commercial head at Avenue, makes the case for international diversification and dollarization for Brazilian investors. He argues that US equities (S&P 500) and US Treasuries are safer and more reliable long-term assets than Brazilian bonds, and that dollar exposure is essential to preserve purchasing power. The conversation also covers behavioral finance, the perils of short-termism, the incoming generational wealth transfer, and how to remain committed to long-term strategies.

  • Brazil is only 1% of the global market, yet Brazilian portfolios are heavily concentrated in local assets.
  • Investing through the US provides access to global equities and true risk-free fixed income.
  • The S&P 500 has survived wars, crises, and political changes — strong institutions drive long-term resilience.
  • Brazilian government bonds carry hidden currency and credit risk and are riskier than many frontier sovereigns.
  • US dollar exposure is critical to maintain purchasing power across generations.
  • Behavioral biases — like selling winners too early and chasing hot returns — destroy long-term performance.
  • Advisors who ignore younger generations’ interest in global and digital assets risk losing clients as transfer of wealth unfolds.
  • Focusing on what doesn’t change (customer trust, patience, compounding) outperforms trying to predict short-term movements.
Ideas
Daniel Haddad CIO and Head of Commercial, Avenue 1:27
Dollar preserves value, real depreciates.
The US dollar has maintained purchasing power since 1934, while Brazil has gone through 10 different currencies. The real is the volatile leg of USD/BRL. Approximately 20% of Brazilian household costs are dollarized, creating a mismatch. For long-term wealth preservation and purchasing power, a material dollar allocation is essential.
Daniel Haddad CIO and Head of Commercial, Avenue 33:41
S&P 500 resilient through crises.
The S&P 500 has survived numerous crises over 100 years—high unemployment, wars, 9/11, COVID—because US institutions are strong and the market fosters constant innovation (creative destruction). This resilience makes it a reliable long-term compounding vehicle.
Daniel Haddad CIO and Head of Commercial, Avenue 35:17
Diversify globally via US markets.
Brazil represents only 1% of the global market. Investing through the US allows access to thousands of international companies and diversification across countries and currencies. Recency and home bias lead Brazilians to concentrate risk in a single volatile market; global diversification is a lifeboat.
Daniel Haddad CIO and Head of Commercial, Avenue 45:20
Brazil bonds risky, not risk-free.
Brazilian government bonds (Selic, NTN-B) appear risk-free with high nominal rates, but they embed severe currency depreciation and credit risk. Their real returns in hard currency have been very poor, and the country's sovereign rating is lower than many frontier markets. Investors should not treat them as a safe haven.
Daniel Haddad CIO and Head of Commercial, Avenue 46:54
US Treasuries safer than Brazil bonds.
US Treasury bonds are the true global risk-free asset. Over the past decade they returned more than 20% in reais, while Brazilian bonds (Selic) returned only 4% in dollars. Credit rating agencies rate Brazil's sovereign debt as riskier than Botswana's, Paraguay's, or Romania's. For capital preservation, Treasuries are a safer alternative.
Up Next

This Market Makers video, published July 19, 2026, features Daniel Haddad discussing US Dollar (USD), SPY, VT, Brazilian Government Bonds (Tesouro Selic), TLT. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Daniel Haddad  · Tickers: US Dollar (USD), SPY, VT, Brazilian Government Bonds (Tesouro Selic), TLT