Iran Tensions, Tech Earnings Keep Equities on Shaky Ground: 3-Minutes MLIV
Speakers
Skyler Montgomery Koning
— Macro Strategist
Summary
Skylar Montgomery Koning discusses the impact of escalating Iran tensions on oil prices, noting that Strait of Hormuz closure and infrastructure targeting drive a bullish oil bias. She also cautions that high oil and tech trade wobbles create a worrying backdrop for equities, with US tech earnings facing a high bar amid leverage risks.
- Brent crude oil prices seen biased higher amid material Middle East escalation, including Strait of Hormuz closure and oil infrastructure targeting.
- Oil price upside capped below $120/bbl by demand destruction, China demand loss, and alternative supply from Saudi Arabia and US exports.
- Equities face a very worrying backdrop due to higher oil prices and tech sector uncertainty, negative for growth.
- Tech trade remains unsteady as AI winners are unknown and US companies may not be the primary beneficiaries of AI spending.
- Elevated leverage in the US equity market raises the risk of significant downside if selling pressure emerges.
- Upcoming US big tech earnings face a tough backdrop with a high bar for profitability to drive rallies; focus on CapEx plans.
Ideas
Bias is higher oil prices.
The Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed and oil infrastructure is being targeted again, marking material escalation. The bias is clearly higher oil prices from here, though likely not reaching $120/bbl on Brent due to demand destruction, China demand loss, and alternative supply from Saudi Arabia and US exports.
Worrying backdrop for equities.
Higher oil prices and wobbles in the tech trade create a very worrying backdrop for equities, negative for growth. Equities are unattractive in this environment.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 20, 2026, features Skyler Montgomery Koning discussing BNO, Equities. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Skyler Montgomery Koning · Tickers: BNO, Equities