The True Identity of the Fed-Created Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle: Actually, Coins Are Assets Sensitive to Interest Rates | Seo Dong-ju, Kim Dong-hwan, Bae Mun-seong, Life Asset Management Director

Summary

Bae Mun-seong, Director at Life Asset Management, argues that Bitcoin's price is driven by Fed interest rate cycles rather than the halving, and the current AI capex boom is keeping rates elevated. He advises underweighting bonds, gold, and crypto while increasing cash until the rate-hike cycle ends, and highlights near-term caution on Korean semiconductor stocks due to capex saturation fears and Chinese competition. He also notes a potential Bitcoin cycle low around November 2025.

• Bitcoin's 4-year cycle is really a reflection of Fed tightening/easing, not the halving; major crashes in 2018 and 2022 coincided with rate hikes.
• Massive AI infrastructure investment is driving growth and keeping interest rates high, making rate cuts unlikely in the near term.
• Until the Fed signals the end of rate hikes, avoid bonds, gold, and virtual assets; prioritize cash to deploy when conditions turn.
• Korean memory semiconductor stocks face a difficult adjustment period as AI capex saturation fears, China's AI push, and capital discipline create near-term headwinds.
• Bain Capital's clean exit from Kioxia and weak bond demand for heavy AI capex firms signal that capital markets are becoming disciplined.
• Based on historical cycle patterns, Bitcoin could bottom around November 2025, potentially aligning with a Fed pivot and creating a re-entry opportunity.