If You Forget History, There Is No Future | Dr. So Hyeon-cheol & Executive Director Park Se-ik & Chesley Head of Learning [Byeoljubujeon Highlight / 26.07.18.Sat Part 1]

Summary

Dr. So Hyeon-cheol draws a historical parallel between the 1980s Korean market rally and today's environment, arguing that AI-fueled trade surpluses and US geopolitical strategy could drive a long-term KOSPI boom. He identifies tactical opportunities in Korean memory semiconductors (technical rebound), safer play in Samsung Electronics, and long-term growth in shipbuilders and defense stocks (LIG Nex1, Hanwha Aerospace, KAI), while highlighting Posco Holdings as a rare earth value play.

• Historical pattern: 1980s rally fueled by low oil, low rates, weak won; now AI exports drive a similar trade surplus, suggesting KOSPI could aim for 9,000 long-term.
• DRAM price cycle is slowing, but a technical rebound is likely; Samsung Electronics is safer due to diversified businesses (foundry, handsets).
• Korean shipbuilders (HD Hyundai Heavy, Hanwha Ocean) are a buying opportunity after missing a Canadian submarine deal, as global naval demand shifts to Korea and SMR-powered ships emerge.
• Hanwha Aerospace is the core of Korea’s space program, which targets 70 trillion won in industry size and a Korean Starlink for 6G.
• LIG Nex1 offers world-leading missile defense (96% intercept) and benefits from strong global air defense demand.
• KAI (Korea Aerospace) is worth monitoring for KF-21 fighter and manned-unmanned composite combat, though valuation is high.
• Posco Holdings at 0.4x P/B with improving earnings, anti-dumping tariffs, and rare earth development presents a value opportunity.