US-Iran Strikes Ramp Up After American Troops Killed

Summary

Bloomberg's Stuart Livingstone-Wallace and Control Risks' Niamh McBurney discuss the latest US-Iran strikes after American troop deaths. Oil prices have risen on increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz as the IRGC Navy threatens to control passage. Livingstone-Wallace highlights a collapse in prediction-market expectations for Hormuz normalization and a shift higher across the oil forward curve, signaling bearish supply sentiment. McBurney assesses the conflict as still restrained but with risks of further escalation, while Trump may ultimately prefer negotiation over a ground war.

• US and Iran traded fresh attacks, including on civilian infrastructure in Kuwait, and a third US troop death was reported.
• The IRGC Navy said no vessels will pass through the Strait of Hormuz without permission, threatening oil flows.
• Oil prices moved higher and the forward curve rose across the board, reflecting lower expectations for supply normalization.
• Prediction markets priced the odds of Hormuz returning to normal by September 1 dropping from 70% in mid-June to around 8%.
• Control Risks' McBurney views the conflict as still calibrated and not all-out war, with both sides leaving room to negotiate.
• President Trump's rhetoric signals a desire to end Iran's nuclear capability, but McBurney says he is still more likely to negotiate than escalate with ground troops.