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00:16
Jul 24
Jul 24
272210.KS 1ST
079550.KS
005930.KS
000660.KS
000100.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Geopolitical risk boosts defense stocks.
Middle East tensions are escalating, with fears of US military action, driving a flight to defense stocks. Hanwha Systems jumped 8% and LIG Nex1 5% as geopolitical risk spiked, and these names stand to benefit further if the situation worsens.
272210.KS LONG
079550.KS LONG
AI capex surge lifts semiconductor stocks.
AI capital expenditure keeps accelerating — OpenAI raised its computing spend target and the US Genesis mission is funding AI and quantum projects. Korean semiconductor leaders Samsung and SK hynix supply essential AI memory and logic, and the sector held up even as big-cap US tech sold off, signaling durable demand and relative strength.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Share cancellations support Yuhan and Mirae.
Yuhan and Mirae Asset Securities are executing sizable share cancellations — Yuhan 600,000 shares (around 4,200 billion won) and Mirae Asset around 500 billion won — reducing total shares outstanding and providing a catalyst for the stock price.
000100.KS LONG
006800.KS LONG
Data center power needs boost transformers.
A data center power outage in a major US hub highlighted the critical need for grid stability and transformer equipment. LS Electric, which already surged 17%, is a direct beneficiary of the rising importance of power infrastructure for AI data centers.
010120.KS LONG
Watch Kakao and Naver for software cycle.
Kakao and Naver are lagging because the current market cycle is dominated by AI hardware infrastructure build-out. Both companies have growing earnings and Kakao owns the powerful KakaoTalk platform. Once the hardware cycle matures, software and platform names could rotate back into favor, making them worth monitoring.
035720.KS WATCH
035420.KS WATCH
HIGH
23:34
Jul 23
Jul 23
23:25
Jul 23
Jul 23
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Depleted buffers make oil vulnerable to spike
The US has largely depleted its interceptor stockpile and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while Gulf allies are reluctant to host strikes. With no resupply, Iranian missiles and drones will get through more often, and the buffers to cushion oil market shocks are gone. This round of military strikes is set to be worse for oil supply and prices than the first one, making oil particularly vulnerable to a price spike.
WTI LONG
HIGH
23:25
Jul 23
Jul 23
NVO
LLY 1ST
▾
MED
Novo's oral Wegovy pill boosting sales.
Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy pill has become extremely popular and a huge product, helping the company regain momentum against Lilly in the weight loss drug race, although long-term competition between pills and shots remains uncertain.
NVO WATCH
Retatrutide could be major Lilly blockbuster.
Retatrutide is a next-generation triple-agonist weight loss shot combining GLP-1, glucagon, and GIP that has shown up to 30% weight loss and liver benefits; it could be a very large product for Lilly, with black market demand already indicating high patient interest ahead of its planned regulatory filing in early 2027.
LLY LONG
MED
23:25
Jul 23
Jul 23
GOOGL FLIP
▾
HIGH
Capex blowout kills Alphabet's free cash flow.
Alphabet's capex is soaring from $30B in 2022 to ~$190B in 2026, with a significant increase planned for 2027, turning the company from a free cash flow juggernaut to negative free cash flow for the first time ever, forcing an $85B equity raise. Despite 82% cloud revenue growth, the massive AI spending on training and data centers raises fears of insufficient returns, and the speaker expects spending to continue unabated, making the stock unattractive.
GOOGL AVOID
HIGH
23:24
Jul 23
Jul 23
IGV 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
MED
Software private credit struggles on high leverage.
Software companies in private credit are struggling due to AI disruption risks, very high leverage, and low coverage ratios, leaving them unable to perform well in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment with persistent upward inflation pressure.
IGV AVOID
Strong U.S. economy supports positive outlook.
The U.S. economy is holding up very well with strong GDP, consumer spending, and CapEx, supported by the AI boom, creating a positive economic outlook that will continue to drive the market narrative forward.
SPY LONG
MED
23:14
Jul 23
Jul 23
23:00
Jul 23
Jul 23
Thread Guy
3h
Solana meme coins
▾
HIGH
Viral animals revive Solana meme coin volume
Viral animal memes and corporate brand accounts run by young interns who are aware of meme coins will increasingly shill these memes, driving attention and volume back to Solana meme coins. As people connect external viral trends to meme coins on Solana, volume will return and everything will move more aggressively. This is a lasting trend because the social media managers are incentivized both by engagement metrics and personal meme coin profits.
Solana meme coins LONG
HIGH
22:22
Jul 23
Jul 23
SKYY 1ST
SMH 1ST
▾
MED
Prefer hyperscalers over semiconductors near-term.
The US equity strategy team sees hyperscalers as early in discounting the market's renewed focus on capex discipline, leading them to maintain a relative preference for hyperscalers over semiconductors for the next several months.
SKYY LONG
SMH AVOID
MED
22:08
Jul 23
Jul 23
AMD
GOOGL
TSLA FLIP
HIMS 1ST
LMT 1ST
▾
HIGH
AMD AI server rack system launched
AMD held up well during the semiconductor hardware selloff, gaining resilience. The company publicly launched its Helios rack system, combining CPU and GPU strengths, and claims the fastest AI accelerator in the industry. Collaboration with Cerebras and shipments starting from late Q3 expand its AI footprint. The stock joined Intel's after-hours rally on CPU momentum.
AMD LONG
Buy Google dip on AI strength
Alphabet's 7% drop was driven by unlucky timing—rising rates and oil when capex was increased, plus a temporary negative free cash flow—but the underlying AI business is very strong. Cloud ARR growth accelerated, Gemini token processing soared, and enterprise adoption is climbing. The sell-off is seen as an opportunity because AI capex will ultimately lead to profitability; concerns are overblown.
GOOGL LONG
Tesla fundamentals weak, avoid
Tesla's earnings were poor with declining margins, negative free cash flow, and a massive capex plan lacking details. Robot (Optimus) production is still vague and will be slow initially. Merger talk with SpaceX adds uncertainty. The stock fell 14% and there were no positive catalysts. Analysts advise waiting as the company slowly transitions to a physical AI firm.
TSLA AVOID
Hims weight-loss drug FDA progress
Hims & Hers received a positive FDA advisory committee vote (8 yes, 6 no) for its weight-loss drug, overcoming earlier litigation with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. This marks a meaningful step toward potential approval and the stock rose on the development.
HIMS LONG
Defense stocks benefit from war
Lockheed Martin reported good earnings and its backlog significantly increased, reflecting strong demand driven by the ongoing war environment. Defense spending tailwinds are boosting the company's outlook.
LMT LONG
ServiceNow benefits from enterprise AI
ServiceNow reported that, contrary to fears of disintermediation, enterprise customers are not building their own AI agents and still prefer its platform. The company delivered strong results, multiple analysts raised price targets, and the direction of enterprise AI benefits remains intact.
NOW LONG
H2 market headwinds cap upside
Multiple headwinds—spiking oil, rising rates, upcoming FOMC, Jackson Hole meeting, and the anticipated Anthropic IPO supply drain—will cap upside for US equities in the second half. The speaker has lowered near-term return expectations and suggests waiting for clearer conditions toward year-end.
SPY AVOID
Blackstone AI bets paying off
Blackstone's earnings were solid and private credit worries have faded below the surface. The firm's AI-focused investments are producing surprising results, validating its strategic direction. The stock held up well despite the broader sell-off.
BX LONG
Intel CPU cycle recovery just beginning
Intel delivered strong earnings with revenue and EPS beats, margin improvement to 41.8%, and the strongest revenue growth in 15 years. The CPU cycle is still early while memory semiconductors already had a big H1 rally. The AI industry is shifting from training to inference/execution, which drives CPU demand. Intel's foundry yield improvement also supports upside. The stock surged over 10% after hours.
INTC LONG
HIGH
21:59
Jul 23
Jul 23
SPY 1ST
GOOGL 1ST
XLV 1ST
SMH 1ST
AAL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short S&P 500 on AI capex overspend
The AI capex boom resembles the late-1990s internet buildout, with massive spending on data centers and infrastructure assuming peak innovation, while utilization is unknown and returns may not justify the investment. The market is only starting to price this risk, and the current selloff could be more sustainable.
SPY SHORT
Buy Alphabet on cloud acceleration
Alphabet's cloud business accelerated massively (82% growth vs consensus 65%), margins improved, and there is clear evidence of healthy ROI on AI spend. The search business slowdown is mild, and the broader macro-driven selloff creates a buying opportunity as AI demand remains very strong and enterprise adoption is still early.
GOOGL LONG
Buy quality productivity enabler sectors
Quality investing has underperformed but offers opportunity as the market broadens. Companies with durable returns above their cost of capital will benefit in a higher cost-of-capital environment. Productivity enablers such as industrial automation, specialized manufacturing, health care, and capital markets offer the best quality and growth opportunities outside of crowded tech and semiconductors.
XLV LONG
Specialized Manufacturing Sector LONG
Industrial Automation Sector LONG
Capital Markets Sector LONG
Buy semi equipment on Intel capex
Intel's strong results and capex increase are fantastic news for the semiconductor capital equipment supply chain. Intel had been a lagging customer in recent years; its renewed spending, combined with memory suppliers globally expanding, creates a powerful demand tailwind for equipment makers.
SMH LONG
Short American Airlines on weak profitability
American Airlines has been struggling with profitability for years, is late to the premium revenue game, faces fuel cost headwinds, and just cut guidance for the second time this year. Operational missteps and labor issues continue to weigh on the stock.
AAL SHORT
Short Tesla on capex and slow AI progress
Tesla's capex is rising sharply, profits missed expectations, and investors are frustrated by the slow progress on robotaxis and humanoid robots. The car business focus is fading, and without concrete milestones in AI-related projects, the stock remains under pressure.
TSLA SHORT
Buy IBM, mainframe upgrade cycle strong
IBM's Z17 mainframe has delivered 130% capacity growth versus the prior generation, with 85% of clients increasing their capacity. Strong client commitment and unit cost advantages support durable revenue and cash flow growth, reinforcing the long-term thesis for IBM.
IBM LONG
Short bonds, rates heading higher
Rates are likely to go up, not down, supported by oil prices above $100, jobless claims at 1960s lows, earnings growth near 20%, credit spreads at all-time tights, and inflation nowhere near target. The 10-year yield is much more likely to hit 5% than a sustained 3% handle, and the Fed will likely hike this year.
US 10-Year Treasury Bond SHORT
HIGH
21:25
Jul 23
Jul 23
Iran War Spikes Gas Prices, New Deal Boosts US Shipbuilding | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 7/23/2026
WTI
TLT
SS Innovations International
▾
HIGH
Iran war sustains oil price rally.
The escalation of the Iran war will keep upward pressure on oil prices, with gas and diesel continuing to rise, oil already above $100 a barrel, and the U.S. acting as the supplier of last resort, leading to sustained high crude prices.
WTI LONG
Treasury yields above inflation restore income.
U.S. Treasury yields have risen above the level of inflation, restoring the income appeal and purchasing-power protection of fixed income, making bonds attractive for the income-oriented part of a portfolio in the current environment.
TLT LONG
Robotic surgery disruptor with FDA catalyst.
SS Innovations' surgical robot is commercially validated in India, offers capabilities beyond da Vinci at less than half the price, has strong interest from major U.S. hospitals, and is awaiting FDA approval expected next year, which will unlock significant U.S. revenue and improve the currently depressed stock valuation.
SS Innovations International LONG
HIGH
21:12
Jul 23
Jul 23
CNBC
5h
AAL
LUV
▾
HIGH
Strong demand, pricing power, record revenue.
Airfares are up 15-20% year-over-year with no customer resistance, 60% of third-quarter revenue already on the books, and the company is delivering record revenue performance by offering customers reasons to buy up, such as better experience, network connectivity, and leading loyalty.
AAL LONG
Strong demand, no fare resistance.
Fares have moved up significantly with fuel costs, yet there has been no resistance to higher fares and demand is incredibly strong.
LUV LONG
HIGH
21:02
Jul 23
Jul 23
INTC
KLAC 1ST
AMAT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Intel turnaround driven by data center CPU demand
Intel is experiencing a strong turnaround driven by surging data center CPU demand, which grew 59% last quarter and is outpacing supply. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said demand is outstripping current supply, leading to a revenue beat and a surge in shares. Intel is leaving money on the table due to supply constraints, but supply is still growing, and management is raising CapEx to capture demand, signaling further growth.
INTC LONG
Chip equipment makers benefit from Intel's CapEx
Intel plans to raise 2026 CapEx to $20 billion and meaningfully higher in 2027, focusing on equipment and tools rather than new sites. This, coupled with broader capacity buildout and TSMC's positive outlook, will directly benefit semiconductor equipment makers. Ed Ludlow noted that Applied Materials and KLA Corp outperformed after Intel's print and that chip equipment makers will follow the industry's capacity expansion.
KLAC LONG
AMAT LONG
HIGH
21:00
Jul 23
Jul 23
Why Are Markets Crashing Now? Trader Reveals Major Signals For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold | Jason Shapiro
BTC
WTI 1ST
GLD 1ST
NZD/USD
DXY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin buy signal from weak sentiment
Bitcoin sentiment has collapsed with viewership and interest declining, and the market is no longer reacting to negative narratives. This extreme bearishness and lack of participation improves risk/reward, signaling a buy relative to selling. Bitcoin has started to trade better as everyone gives up, a classic contrarian opportunity.
BTC LONG
Long crude amid weak positioning, recency bias
Crude oil positioning is the least long since before the Iran war, recency bias has burned traders who bought on war fears, so they are afraid to buy again. This lack of participation means crude has upside legs. The Economist apologies for being wrong on July 1st marked the exact low, a contrarian signal. Crude is trading very well and likely to move higher sustainably.
WTI LONG
Gold bottoming as rate sensitivity breaks
Gold has been in a bear market since January as the narrative of higher rates hurting gold dominated. However, now interest rates are making new highs but gold and silver have stopped falling, indicating the narrative is breaking down. Sentiment is extremely weak (miners struggling to raise capital, nobody wants to finance gold), which creates a favorable risk/reward for a long position. He prefers buying gold over bonds.
GLD LONG
Fade overcrowded dollar longs, commodity currency shorts
The long dollar trade and short Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar trades have become the most overcrowded in currency markets. Extreme positioning suggests these trends are due for reversal, providing a contrarian opportunity to fade the crowded trades.
NZD/USD LONG
DXY SHORT
CAD/USD LONG
HIGH
20:40
Jul 23
Jul 23
Thread Guy
5h
PM FLIP
MRVL
SNDK FLIP
AMD
AVGO
▾
HIGH
Zyn maker at all-time highs.
Philip Morris is at all-time highs, driven by the acquisition of Zyn. Nicotine consumption has shifted culturally: disposable vapes became cringe, Zyn took over as the dominant product with 2.9 billion tins sold last quarter, and even cigarette sales are rising for the first time in 20 years. The stock remains an underappreciated trade, largely separated from AI/hype themes.
PM LONG
Buy AI capex receivers.
Hyperscalers are massively increasing AI capex (Google alone over $200B, free cash flow turned negative). The stock market is clearly rotating out of these spenders and into the companies that receive that spending, which are holding up well and set to benefit from the AI buildout. Specifically Micron, Marvell, Bloom Energy, SanDisk, Intel, AMD, ASML, and Broadcom are the beneficiaries.
MRVL LONG
SNDK LONG
AMD LONG
AVGO LONG
ASML LONG
INTC LONG
MU LONG
BE LONG
Pump Fun token surging.
The Pump Fun platform is seeing surging revenue and activity, and its token is the strongest asset on the chart, completely immune to the equity sell-off. Memecoin activity is rebounding, making the Pump Fun token a bullish expression of the on-chain experimentation trend.
PUMP LONG
Avoid big AI spenders now.
Hyperscaler AI spenders like Tesla, Google, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, and Microsoft are spending recklessly on AI capex, crushing free cash flow and prompting a market rotation away from them. They are significantly underperforming and should be avoided.
TSLA AVOID
AMZN AVOID
ORCL AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
META AVOID
MSFT AVOID
On-chain GME squeeze play.
The GME token on Robinhood chain is a novel on-chain short squeeze play. The tokenized stock has limited supply, causing a price spike to $200, and the memecoin paired with it created massive FOMO and unprecedented on-chain activity. The dynamics are unsolved, with arbitrageurs minting stock to repeg the price, creating a unique game-like opportunity. He is holding a large position because of the intrigue and potential for a sustained squeeze.
GME LONG
HIGH
20:17
Jul 23
Jul 23
INTC 1ST
SMH
▾
MED
Intel turnaround executing, demand exceeds supply.
Intel is executing its turnaround, with demand outpacing supply (a good problem to have), fueled by AI data center demand, foundry progress, and a strong Q2 beat with raised guidance.
INTC LONG
Semiconductor recovery, worst fears fading.
After Intel's positive results, worst fears for semiconductor stocks may be off the table, and investors are dipping back into the sector, as seen in the SMA semiconductor ETF.
SMH WATCH
MED
20:07
Jul 23
Jul 23
20:03
Jul 23
Jul 23
20:02
Jul 23
Jul 23
CNBC
6h
AMD
▾
HIGH
Helios and MI450 ramp drive AMD growth
AMD's Helios rack-scale system and Venice processors are in full production, delivering over 30x performance improvement vs previous generation. Major customers including OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic are committing to large-scale MI 450 deployments (up to multi-gigawatt scale, with Anthropic at 2 GW starting 1H 2027). The systems offer 10-15% more performance and up to 30% better tokens per dollar than competitors, positioning AMD to capture a significant share of the $2 trillion AI computing TAM.
AMD LONG
HIGH
20:00
Jul 23
Jul 23
Wealthion
6h
RTY 1ST
EEM 1ST
MAG7
XLP 1ST
XLRE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Broad earnings support US small caps.
Earnings power is now broad across large, mid, and small caps, not just the Mag 7. With the Fed cutting rates, GDP expanding, and earnings estimates rising, the conditions are in place for a sustained rotation into US small caps. Small caps have already been leading for 18 months, and pullbacks should be used to add exposure.
RTY LONG
Broad earnings support emerging markets.
Earnings power is broadening globally, and emerging market equities are a specific place to put money to work alongside US small caps. No further country-level detail, but EM is part of the broadening call.
EEM LONG
Mag 7 valuation has become attractive.
The Magnificent Seven have gone from being over-owned to having bad news largely priced in. Forward multiples are well below 5- and 10-year medians, and the PEG ratio is about one. If anything goes right, these stocks will rally. He recently flipped from underweight to a buy call on the Mag 7.
MAG7 LONG
Consumer staples offer little upside.
There is not much to get excited about in consumer staples; the sector is defensive and lacks compelling upside.
XLP AVOID
Real estate is too rate-sensitive.
Public real estate is not exciting because it is primarily rate-sensitive rather than offering strong standalone growth.
XLRE AVOID
Japanese corporate reforms boost equities.
Japan has undergone structural changes, with companies becoming more growth-oriented, shareholder-friendly, and focused on stakeholders. This has made Japan an attractive market for years and remains a constructive call.
Tokyo Stock Exchange (e.g., Nikkei 225) LONG
HIGH
19:27
Jul 23
Jul 23
BNO
Bloomberg Mag Seven Index
▾
MED
Oil bubble to burst, prices surge.
Traders are overly optimistic about oil prices; the bubble could burst, leading to a repricing much higher given the Iran conflict and potential double chokepoint.
BNO LONG
Big Tech AI spending punished now.
Big Tech companies are being punished for AI capex instead of rewarded; with war stoking inflation and weakening growth, the ability to sustain high AI spending and raise capital cheaply is challenged, making these stocks vulnerable to repricing.
Bloomberg Mag Seven Index SHORT
MED
19:16
Jul 23
Jul 23
AI-themed credit
Hyperscaler bonds
▾
MED
Avoid broad AI credit exposure.
Broad exposure to AI-themed credit is risky due to high concentration in new issuance and uncertain monetization. Investors should avoid broad AI credit and instead be highly selective, focusing on deals with strong structures, terms, and collateral to ensure downside protection.
AI-themed credit AVOID
Watch hyperscaler bonds for stabilization entry.
Hyperscaler bonds have underperformed, with spreads widening and some bonds trading below face value, creating pockets of opportunity. Once the issuance pipeline becomes more predictable, spreads should stabilize, offering an attractive entry point for investors who can identify good structures and downside protection.
Hyperscaler bonds WATCH
MED
19:12
Jul 23
Jul 23
CNBC
6h
GOOGL
MSFT
AMZN
TSLA
▾
MED
Alphabet cloud growth justifies AI capex.
Alphabet is a different story from Tesla because its cloud business is showing clear growth, which justifies its AI capex spending and makes the investment more credible.
GOOGL LONG
Hyperscalers benefit from AI capex arms race.
The AI capex arms race is only 15% of the way through, with hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon continuing to spend heavily because enterprises are lining up use cases. This is analogous to building the Las Vegas Strip in 1955, and these stocks will ultimately reward long-term investors.
MSFT LONG
AMZN LONG
Tesla is early-stage AI disruptor.
Tesla is not a traditional car company but an AI disruptive technology play. Heavy capex on physical AI (autonomous driving, Optimus) is causing near-term pain for investors, but the AI revolution is still in its early innings, and Tesla's long-term AI story will ultimately win out.
TSLA LONG
MED
19:12
Jul 23
Jul 23
CNBC
7h
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Stocks cannot handle 5% yield unharmed
Earnings have been able to handle higher yields this year because the rise in yields is driven by stronger real economic activity, not just restrictive policy. This earnings strength can largely offset the headwind from higher yields, supporting the stock market.
SPY AVOID
HIGH
18:57
Jul 23
Jul 23
CNBC
7h
INTC
SPY
▾
HIGH
Intel is a hot stock after turnaround
The U.S. government bought 10% of Intel at a favorable price and has realized approximately $72 billion in profit. The company has become one of the hottest stocks in the world, with the share price rising many times, reflecting a massive turnaround under current policy.
INTC LONG
US is the hottest country for investment
The U.S. is described as the hottest country in the world, attracting $19.2 trillion in investments over 12 months, with massive economic momentum compared to the prior administration. This suggests broad U.S. equity market strength.
SPY LONG
HIGH
18:45
Jul 23
Jul 23
ETH 1ST
▾
HIGH
ETH captures value from L2 expansion.
Ethereum is uniquely positioned to become the central settlement layer for global finance, with Layer 2s like Robinhood chain driving massive user distribution. This creates a flywheel where ETH captures value through increased demand as the base asset, fee revenue, and the need for the L1 as the economic hub, eventually leading to a re-rating of ETH as a multi-trillion dollar asset.
ETH LONG
HIGH
18:00
Jul 23
Jul 23
CoinDesk
8h
BTC 1ST
ADA
ETH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Crypto near bottom, great buying opportunity.
Crypto fear and greed index is at 24, market is only 50% down from its peak versus typical 70-80% bear cycle drawdowns, indicating we are near the bottom. This creates a great buying opportunity, and long-term bullish with trillions in RWA inflows and new user adoption.
BTC LONG
Cardano uniquely positioned for strong growth.
Cardano will grow strongly over the next 12-24 months due to unique capabilities: on-chain governance, Bitcoin DeFi, partner chain airdrops to ADA holders, ZK infrastructure, narrative reset, and a 'doing it right' approach akin to Anthropic's success.
ADA LONG
Ethereum structurally flawed, avoid.
Ethereum has made fundamental errors: no on-chain treasury, parasitic L2 ecosystem, lack of decentralized governance leading to oligarchy. Its approach is structurally flawed and will lead to capture by Wall Street; avoid.
ETH AVOID
HIGH
17:50
Jul 23
Jul 23
17:43
Jul 23
Jul 23
XLF
XLI 1ST
XLV
AMZN 1ST
SMH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Overweight financials as AI IPO beneficiaries.
Financials and banks are among the strongest parts of the market going forward. They were unfairly beaten up on rate-hike fears but continue to perform well. They serve as a diversification to the AI trade and are beneficiaries of all the IPO and deal activity around tech, making them attractive as AI-driven opportunities.
XLF LONG
Overweight non-AI sectors, attractive valuations.
Many strong companies outside the AI complex have been punished simply for not being attached to AI. There are attractive valuation opportunities across industrials and healthcare, which can continue to perform well if the macro backdrop stays constructive.
XLI LONG
XLV LONG
Buy Amazon and Google for long-term AI dominance.
Amazon and Google are buys because they will be the big winners of the AI buildout over a three-to-five-year horizon. For patient investors, these hyperscalers are positioned to dominate long-term, even if near-term sentiment suffers from rising capex fears.
AMZN LONG
GOOGL LONG
Overweight AI infrastructure as capex beneficiaries.
The massive AI capex from hyperscalers flows immediately to the receivers—semiconductors, hardware, networking, the picks and shovels of AI infrastructure. Investors should overweight the receivers of that capital, as they see the dollars now, while the ROI for the spenders is years away.
SMH LONG
Long Sphere Entertainment, packed venue, decent multiple.
Sphere Entertainment is trading at a decent multiple, the venue is packed, every seat is full, and there is clarity around expansion into Abu Dhabi. Live entertainment demand remains strong even as other parts of Las Vegas struggle.
SPHR LONG
Long Blackstone, discounted multiple, AI-driven growth.
Blackstone is trading at a discounted market multiple despite delivering strong earnings growth, yielding 4%, and benefiting from its strategic pivot into AI and the AI ecosystem. The market should eventually re-rate the stock as it recognizes the earnings power and growth from data centers, energy infrastructure, and AI-related investments.
BX LONG
HIGH
17:36
Jul 23
Jul 23
17:35
Jul 23
Jul 23
CNBC
8h
IBM
▾
HIGH
AI is a tailwind for IBM software
Only about 2% of IBM's software revenue is at risk of being replaced by new AI applications; the vast majority of its software helps clients unlock data, manage hybrid infrastructure, and prepare for AI adoption across cloud, on-premise, and edge environments. This makes AI a tailwind for IBM, not a headwind.
IBM LONG
HIGH
17:27
Jul 23
Jul 23
CNBC
8h
AAL
LUV
▾
MED
Record revenue and strong demand for American.
American Airlines has 60% of Q3 revenue already booked and is seeing record revenue performance. Customers are willing to buy up for a better experience, indicating strong demand and pricing power.
AAL LONG
Strong demand, bag fees boost Southwest.
Southwest sees incredibly strong demand with no resistance to higher fares so far. Bag fees alone are worth $1 billion per year, suggesting continued pricing power and revenue growth.
LUV LONG
MED
17:24
Jul 23
Jul 23
Chinese onshore commodity futures
▾
HIGH
Chinese commodity futures offer diversification edge
Chinese commodity futures offer unique diversification and return opportunities. The Chinese futures markets are very large, heavily policy-driven, and financially segmented from western markets despite physical interlinkage. Short-term momentum historically works better there than in western markets, and the momentum factor appears to be extending in duration. Combined with a potential deglobalization impulse that could cause sharp divergence between onshore and offshore markets, these markets provide independent, uncorrelated bets that enhance a systematic macro portfolio.
Chinese onshore commodity futures LONG
HIGH
16:33
Jul 23
Jul 23
Macro Voices
9h
TLT
GLD
US Dollar Index (DXY)
COPPER
GRID
▾
HIGH
Sell bonds, rates headed higher.
War is always inflationary; coordinated defense spending borrowing by US, UK, Germany, Japan, and Korea turns creditors into borrowers, pushing bond yields higher; sell bonds until yield curve control is forced.
TLT SHORT
Gold outperforms oil and bonds.
War is always inflationary and prolonged; China's ability to keep oil prices from spiking buys time for gold to benefit; gold starting to rise with oil and rates this week, signaling a shift; gold is simpler with lower volatility and will outperform oil; ultimately, fiscal and monetary pressures favor gold as a neutral reserve asset.
GLD LONG
US dollar breaking out higher.
US dollar index forming a bull flag above the 50-day moving average after breaking out of its 15-month range; early signs of breakout; EUR weakness, USD/JPY strength, and broad dollar strength across currencies support bullish continuation.
US Dollar Index (DXY) LONG
Copper setup for breakout.
Copper positioning reset through time rather than price crash; physical demand strong with falling Chinese inventories and rising import premiums; speculative positioning now back to normal, room to rebuild; setup for breakout, watch upcoming COT report for confirmation.
COPPER WATCH
US electrical grid buildout benefits.
US has underinvested in power generation for decades; lead times for electrical infrastructure are years long; private equity signals multi-year demand far beyond what public companies admit; bottlenecks in power are huge tailwinds; recommends PAVE ETF and GRID ETF.
GRID LONG
PAVE LONG
S&P 500 vulnerable, watch 7400.
S&P 500 vulnerable as MAG7 earnings not providing bullish tailwind yet; systematic trader flip points are rising; a drop of 150-200 points could trigger sell programs and a correction down to 7000; key level 7400 to watch.
SPY WATCH
Bitcoin thrives during monetary repression.
If bond markets break and force yield curve control, currencies weaken, and Bitcoin will do really well in that scenario.
BTC LONG
Japan industrials benefit from reshoring.
US cannot reshore manufacturing without Japan; Japan is critical for defense and industrial buildout; Japanese industrials are still early in the cycle and will do very well.
Japanese industrial equities LONG
Buy semiconductor dip for upside.
If US AI faces problems, semiconductors will be dragged down, creating a buying opportunity; longer term, semiconductors will end up higher; despite eventual Chinese competition, near-term pullback is a chance to add.
SMH LONG
HIGH
16:31
Jul 23
Jul 23
CNBC
9h
SMH FLIP
INTC FLIP
▾
HIGH
Semis selling off despite strong earnings
Semiconductor enthusiasm has cooled as investors question the sustainability of AI spending. Multiple major chip companies (Texas Instruments, TSMC, ASML, Samsung) recently beat earnings estimates yet their stocks still traded lower, establishing a pattern of selling on good news. Intel is walking into the same environment.
SMH AVOID
Intel overvalued, even beats may sell off
Intel's stock has surged 174% YTD and trades at 95x forward P/E, a large premium to AMD (60x), Nvidia (20x), and its 10-year average of 25x. Much of the good news on server demand and tight supply is already priced in. Even if Intel meets or beats expectations, it could sell off, similar to the pattern seen with other semiconductor companies that reported strong earnings but traded lower.
INTC AVOID
HIGH
16:12
Jul 23
Jul 23
Thread Guy
9h
LIT
▾
MED
Buybacks create value for LIT holders.
The buyback mechanism is a core mechanic that delivers economic value from the exchange to LIT holders, works well for a perps exchange, and Lighter plans to continue it.
LIT LONG
MED
16:02
Jul 23
Jul 23
Macro Voices
10h
GLD FLIP
SPY
US Dollar Index (DXY)
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Long gold hedged after 30% correction
Gold has corrected 30% over 6 months, clearing excess, but the short-term trend has not yet turned bullish. To start leaning into gold positioning, structure a hedged long in GLD at $376 with a short-term risk corridor: buy downside protection from $370 to $350 and cap upside at $415, total cost $1.75 per share, dampening drawdown risk while maintaining exposure to the first 10% upside.
GLD LONG
S&P 500 vulnerable to corrective selloff
S&P 500 has traded sideways while CTA and systematic trader flip points have risen like a trailing stop. A 150-200 point drop could trigger forced selling. The key level to watch is 7,400; a sustained break below could start a feedback loop of systematic selling toward 7,000. Earnings from MAG7 have not yet provided a bullish tailwind, leaving the market vulnerable.
SPY WATCH
Long US Dollar on bullish breakout
The US Dollar Index has formed a flagging formation above its 50-day moving average and has already broken out of a 15-month trading range. Consolidation above that range is technically bullish. A decisive break above 101.50 would confirm a new bull advance, supported by broad-based strength against cross currencies.
US Dollar Index (DXY) LONG
Watch EUR/USD breakdown below 1.14
The euro remains decisively weak against the US dollar. A sustained breakdown below 1.14 on EUR/USD could lead to a rapid move toward the 1.12 or 1.11 level in the next few weeks, aligning with the broader USD strength theme.
EUR/USD WATCH
Long USD/JPY on strong breakout
USD/JPY has broken out of a multi-week trading range to the upside, hitting the 163 handle. The move is described as 'shockingly strong' and signals continued bullish momentum for the pair.
USD/JPY LONG
Long copper on positioning reset
Copper speculative positioning has reset from an extreme through time (sideways price action), not a price breakdown, while physical fundamentals remained strong (falling Chinese inventories, rising import premiums). With the COT signal score back to 75 and room to rebuild positions, copper is entering a breakout attempt with healthy underlying support.
COPPER LONG
HIGH
16:02
Jul 23
Jul 23
Macro Voices
10h
PAVE
COPPER
SPY
Japanese industrial equities
TLT
▾
HIGH
Power grid investment cycle supports PAVE.
The US has barely added electrical capacity in 20 years, creating a bottleneck. Companies in electrical infrastructure are seeing years of open-field demand with lead times stretching, but public companies understate the outlook. He likes the sector and notes PAVE ETF as an example.
PAVE LONG
Copper positioning reset, watch for breakout.
Copper's speculative positioning has reset from extreme highs to normal through time rather than a price crash, while physical fundamentals remain strong with falling Chinese inventories and rising import premiums. If speculators return gradually while price holds, it signals a healthy breakout.
COPPER WATCH
S&P 7400 break could trigger sharp selloff.
Equity markets are vulnerable with large and small speculators crowded long. Systematic CTAs have rising flip points; a 150-200 point drop in the S&P 500 could trigger forced selling. The key level to watch is 7,400; a sustained break could lead to a correction toward 7,000.
SPY WATCH
Japan industrials benefit from reshoring needs.
The US cannot reshore without Japan. Japan's industrial sector is still early in benefiting from this shift, with less hype than AI, and will perform well as the West builds out defense and infrastructure.
Japanese industrial equities LONG
Sell bonds as war drives yields higher.
War is inflationary and will force Western governments to borrow heavily for defense while creditors turn into borrowers. This will push yields higher until some form of yield curve control becomes necessary. Therefore, sell bonds.
TLT SHORT
Bitcoin will rally amid currency debasement.
In a scenario where global currencies weaken together under yield curve control, gold and Bitcoin will do really well. Bitcoin would rally alongside gold as a monetary debasement hedge.
BTC LONG
Buy gold as war and inflation persist.
Gold has corrected 30% over six months, clearing excess. Renewed geopolitical escalation and fiscal spending are bullish, but the short-term trend hasn't turned up yet. He proposes buying GLD shares while using a risk-collar options structure to protect against a possible final leg lower while capping upside at $415.
GLD LONG
HIGH
15:49
Jul 23
Jul 23
CNBC
10h
TSLA 1ST
▾
LOW
Presidential support favors Tesla's self-driving prospects.
President Trump is a supporter of self-driving cars, as shown by his red Tesla at the White House and his purchase of self-driving cars for his family, implying a favorable stance that could benefit Tesla through supportive regulatory environment and potential restrictions on Chinese self-driving technology.
TSLA LONG
LOW
15:05
Jul 23
Jul 23
BNO
▾
HIGH
Oil supply disruptions push prices higher.
The Houthi attack on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea is a significant escalation, putting 4 million barrels/day of redirected Saudi crude exports at risk. With the Strait of Hormuz already effectively closed, simultaneous disruptions in the Black Sea (CPC pipeline halted, ~1.5 mb/d), depleted global stockpiles that cannot be drawn down indefinitely, and demand proving more elastic than expected, oil prices will face sustained upward pressure. Brent has already broken above $100 and bank forecasts point to $120.
BNO LONG
HIGH
14:51
Jul 23
Jul 23
XLE
TLT 1ST
SMH
Hyperscaler Stocks
TSLA
▾
HIGH
Energy stocks are best equity hedge.
With equities under pressure from higher oil and rates, the only hedge with conviction is energy stocks. Bonds are not working as a hedge because the stock-bond correlation is the most positive in years. A modest overweight in the energy sector provides protection against equity drawdowns, while the economy remains solid and oil supply risks persist.
XLE LONG
Avoid bonds; they fail as hedge.
Bonds are not acting as a hedge against equities; the correlation between stocks and bonds is the most positive in years. Until clear signs of economic softening emerge, buying bonds for protection or income is unattractive. The portfolio holds a significant bond position but is not adding to it now.
TLT AVOID
Semis gain from hyperscaler capex boom.
Semiconductor stocks are the primary beneficiaries of massive hyperscaler capex. As long as capex keeps rising, semis will outperform. With oil back at $90, the AI trade returns to semis as a safe haven. The team remains bullish on semis and sees hyperscalers lagging due to cash flow pressure.
SMH LONG
Hyperscalers pressured by cash burn, yields.
Hyperscalers are being pressured as their free cash flow drops to zero and they turn into long-duration assets. As yields rise, these stocks underperform. Wells Fargo has been bearish on hyperscalers all year and expects them to continue to lag the broader market.
Hyperscaler Stocks AVOID
Tesla merger premium not priced in.
Tesla shares are undervalued because they do not reflect a potential merger premium with SpaceX. If the two entities are combined, Tesla shareholders could receive a significant premium. Even without a merger, the company is building physical AI and has many positive catalysts.
TSLA LONG
Dollar strengthens, euro under pressure.
The ingredients are in place for the US dollar to strengthen. If the ECB hikes rates in response to energy prices, it will be a 'bad hike' that hurts the euro due to stagflation risk. If the Fed hikes, it directly supports the dollar. Either way, the dollar wins against the euro.
EUR/USD SHORT
Oil supply at risk, prices stay elevated.
The Red Sea is becoming an increasingly critical chokepoint as Houthi attacks disrupt Saudi oil shipments. Iran is using the Houthis to pressure oil prices higher. With two chokepoints now at risk and inventories low, oil prices are under sustained upward pressure and the conflict shows no sign of ending.
BNO LONG
HIGH
14:39
Jul 23
Jul 23
BX
▾
HIGH
Blackstone undervalued, cheap AI exposure
Blackstone is undervalued, trading at a discounted market multiple with a 4% dividend yield, strong earnings growth, and is one of the cheapest ways to play AI through its data center and AI infrastructure investments; the market will eventually recognize the earnings power and re-rate the stock higher.
BX LONG
HIGH
14:38
Jul 23
Jul 23
14:00
Jul 23
Jul 23
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
12h
GOOGL 1ST
KOSDAQ Index
005380.KS
005930.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Alphabet's CapEx confirms sustained AI investment.
Alphabet's strong cloud growth and large CapEx plans signal confidence in AI demand and alleviate market fears of a spending pullback. Despite negative free cash flow, the borrowing to invest is justified by growth prospects and supports a bullish view on the stock.
GOOGL LONG
Avoid KOSDAQ for now.
KOSDAQ lacks earnings momentum and foreign investor interest compared to KOSPI large caps like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The market will not recover until KOSPI leads, and current conditions make KOSDAQ unattractive for new investment.
KOSDAQ Index AVOID
Hyundai Motor is becoming a robotics play.
Hyundai Motor's stock held the 400,000 won level despite a 20% drop in operating profit and weak auto sales, indicating that the market is pricing it as a robotics play rather than just an automaker. The rating is upgraded from neutral to positive as investors are willing to wait for the robotics era.
005380.KS LONG
Buy Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix now.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will surpass previous highs driven by improving quarterly earnings through year-end, low PBR valuation, and foreign buying after the 120-day moving average bounce. Current price weakness is an opportunity despite short-term volatility, and aggressive partial accumulation is recommended now.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jul 23
Jul 23
RSP 1ST
GLD 1ST
GDX 1ST
SIL 1ST
CMPS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Equal-weight S&P will outperform cap-weighted.
The market-cap-weighted S&P 500 is dangerously concentrated in overvalued mega-cap names. An equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF (RSP) reduces that concentration risk and should outperform as market breadth improves or when the market corrects.
RSP LONG
Gold to $7,500 after Fed prints.
Gold is a long-term bull due to monetary debasement, relentless Fed printing, and a weakening dollar. After a sharp deleveraging event that initially sells off gold, the Fed will intervene with massive stimulus, sending gold to $7,500 or higher within 12-18 months.
GLD LONG
Gold miners undervalued, ready to surge.
Gold miners have pulled back sharply while gold remains elevated. The GDX has fallen from ~120 to ~75, P/E multiples contracted significantly, and miners still extract gold at low cost. This divergence creates an attractive entry for a sector that will surge when gold rallies again.
GDX LONG
SIL LONG
Psychedelic stocks poised for asymmetric gains.
The psychedelic drug sector is an asymmetric upside opportunity. It is underfollowed, clinical trial data is positive, regulatory tailwinds are emerging (RFK Jr., FDA fast-tracking), and big pharma validation arrived with Eli Lilly's acquisition of Atai. Stocks like Compass Pathways, Definium/MindMed, and the PSI ETF stand to benefit significantly.
CMPS LONG
MNMD LONG
PSIL LONG
Emerging markets will outperform US stocks.
The valuation gap between the US market and the rest of the world is extreme. The US P/E multiple must contract while the rest-of-world multiple expands, driving outperformance of emerging markets (EEM) over US equities.
EEM LONG
Avoid regional banks, CRE exposure risk.
Regional banks are heavily exposed to commercial real estate bubbles, unmarked books, subprime auto, and a struggling consumer. These risks make the sector fragile and unattractive as rates stay elevated.
KRE AVOID
HIGH
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