US Yields Surge, Calling Bessent's Bluff | Real Yield 9/10/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 10, 2026 at 19:11  |  41:20  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Michael McKee — International Economics & Policy Correspondent, Bloomberg
Michael Contopoulos — Director of Fixed Income, Richard Bernstein Advisors
Kay Herr — CIO of US GFICC, JPMorgan Asset Management
Glenn — CEO
Margaret Steinbach — Capital Group Fixed Income Asset Class Lead
Zachary Griffiths — Head of U.S. Investment Grade & Macro Strategy, CreditSights
Alex Vasquez — Reporter, Bloomberg
Josh Wingrove — White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Martin Ron — Reporter, Bloomberg
Michelle — Reporter, Bloomberg

Summary

Bloomberg Real Yield focuses on the surge in US yields and oil prices ahead of CPI and the Fed meeting, with traders pricing a 70% chance of a rate hike. Guests debate whether the market has called Treasury Secretary Bessent's bluff, with most seeing growth, inflation and issuance as dominant forces. The credit roundtable covers tight investment-grade spreads, high-yield dispersion, hyperscaler debt and Oracle's relative value, while muni segments cover MTA luxury real estate bonds and Connecticut pension funding.

  • US yields spike with the 10-year near 4.91% and 30-year at 5.33%, while Brent crude trades around $107.
  • CPI, PPI and the Fed meeting are key catalysts, with traders pricing a 70% probability of a rate hike.
  • Panelists argue Treasury Secretary Bessent cannot control the Treasury market and that growth, inflation and issuance matter more.
  • Fixed income guests favor lower-rate-risk areas such as floating-rate debt, CLOs, securitized credit, corporate credit and high yield.
  • Credit markets show dispersion: single B/double B high yield is tight, triple C is wide, and IG spreads are historically tight and vulnerable to widening.
  • Oracle debt is viewed as attractive relative value with low downgrade risk.
  • Muni segments highlight MTA luxury real estate-backed debt and improved Connecticut pension funding.
Ideas
Michael McKee International Economics & Policy Correspondent, Bloomberg 5:07
Treasury supply/demand deteriorating; yields rising.
Treasury issuance is skyrocketing while the Fed has stopped supporting the market and foreign buyers have pulled back; the Treasury must sell bonds into spiking yields and is losing big buyers, a bearish supply/demand setup for US Treasuries.
TLT MED
Michael Contopoulos Director of Fixed Income, Richard Bernstein Advisors 8:47
Long-end Treasuries risk Liz Truss selloff.
Long-end Treasuries could suffer a Liz Truss-style bond vigilante selloff if the Fed is not aggressive enough, inflation stays too strong, and growth remains phenomenal; not the base case yet, but the big risk.
US long-end Treasuries MED
Michael Contopoulos Director of Fixed Income, Richard Bernstein Advisors 11:12
Prefer floating-rate, CLOs, securitized fixed income.
With rate risk penalizing Treasuries, fixed income investors should use ETFs to access lower-rate-risk segments such as floating-rate debt, CLOs, and securitized products rather than traditional duration-heavy benchmarks.
FLOT Securitized products JAAA MED
Kay Herr CIO of US GFICC, JPMorgan Asset Management 11:51
High-yield bonds still offer positive returns.
Treasury losses are only one part of the bond market; high-yield bonds are still posting positive returns with 6-7% yields, and active management can find income opportunities rather than a simple yes/no on bonds.
HYG MED
Kay Herr CIO of US GFICC, JPMorgan Asset Management 12:38
Long corporate and securitized credit, neutral duration.
She is hedging by staying neutral on duration and finding opportunities in higher-yielding parts of the corporate bond market and securitized credit market, which are more attractive than rate-sensitive Treasuries.
LQD Securitized Credit HIGH
Glenn CEO 22:31
High yield dispersion favors quality over triple C.
Credit markets are dominated by dispersion: single B/double B high-yield spreads are at 20-year lows while triple C spreads are at the 98th percentile, and investors are discarding names that fall to triple C; this favors higher-quality high yield over triple C.
Single B / double B high yield MED
Glenn CEO 22:31
High yield dispersion favors quality over triple C.
Credit markets are dominated by dispersion: single B/double B high-yield spreads are at 20-year lows while triple C spreads are at the 98th percentile, and investors are discarding names that fall to triple C; this favors higher-quality high yield over triple C.
Triple C high yield MED
Margaret Steinbach Capital Group Fixed Income Asset Class Lead 25:58
Hyperscaler debt diverges from broad IG.
Within investment grade, hyperscaler bonds are trading about 40 basis points behind the broad IG index, while the rest of the IG market is being issued with very little concession; this creates a relative-value divergence worth monitoring between hyperscaler debt and broad IG.
Hyperscaler investment-grade debt LOW
Zachary Griffiths Head of U.S. Investment Grade & Macro Strategy, CreditSights 27:48
Tight credit spreads vulnerable to widening.
Credit spreads have been extremely well behaved and historically tight despite the rise in rates, but if volatility increases they would widen, and he expects higher rate highs and higher lows; that makes investment-grade credit vulnerable.
US Investment Grade Credit MED
Zachary Griffiths Head of U.S. Investment Grade & Macro Strategy, CreditSights 30:46
Oracle debt attractive; downgrade risk low.
Oracle has a large but attention-grabbing debt load and concentration risk around OpenAI, but the odds of downgrade to junk are low and the debt is attractive from a relative value perspective; he is not calling for Oracle to become a fallen angel.
Oracle debt MED
Michael McKee International Economics & Policy Correspondent, Bloomberg 38:24
Oil prices expected higher for longer.
Oil curves have moved up tremendously and the market is now expecting higher-for-longer oil prices; this keeps energy prices elevated, feeds into diesel, jet fuel, heating oil and chemicals, and pressures inflation.
BNO WTI MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 10, 2026, features Michael McKee, Michael Contopoulos, Kay Herr, Glenn, Margaret Steinbach, Zachary Griffiths discussing TLT, US long-end Treasuries, FLOT, Securitized products, JAAA, HYG, LQD, Securitized Credit, Single B / double B high yield, Triple C high yield, Hyperscaler investment-grade debt, US Investment Grade Credit, Oracle debt, BNO, WTI. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Michael McKee, Michael Contopoulos, Kay Herr, Glenn, Margaret Steinbach, Zachary Griffiths  · Tickers: TLT, US long-end Treasuries, FLOT, Securitized products, JAAA, HYG, LQD, Securitized Credit, Single B / double B high yield, Triple C high yield, Hyperscaler investment-grade debt, US Investment Grade Credit, Oracle debt, BNO, WTI