Ideas
Buy cheap NVDA long-dated call options.
Nvidia options are preferred over shares because January 2027 implied volatility has collapsed toward the lowest levels of the past year, making defined-risk upside convexity cheap. The call gives flexibility if NVDA corrects into midterms, with downside delta compression and positive vega cushioning a drawdown, while preserving capital to reposition. If NVDA breaks to new highs and the semiconductor bull market reaccelerates, the long-dated optionality offers open-ended upside participation.
Oil squeeze amid tight physical supply.
Crude oil is squeezing higher as WTI prints $100 and Brent clears $100. The move is driven by a physical supply disruption rather than just fear, with the EIA estimating global oil inventories have fallen roughly 400 million barrels and the global inventory buffer dangerously thin. Large speculators have not rebuilt positioning and shorts remain stubbornly held, so short-covering flows can continue to fuel the rip.
Rising yields bearish for Treasury bonds.
Rising oil prices are reviving inflation fears and forcing markets to reprice more hawkish central bank action. The long end also faces heavy Treasury supply, fiscal concerns, rising term premium, and enormous corporate borrowing competing for capital. The 10-year yield is at 4.85% and the 30-year is back above 5.30%, so Treasuries are under pressure.
Watch S&P breakdown near CTA triggers.
Equities are absorbing oil and rate pressure, but under the hood there is structural deterioration. S&P 500 breadth collapsed from about 70% of stocks bull trending above their 50-day moving average to near 35%, while mega-cap and semiconductor strength masked the damage. CTA sell triggers are clustered around 7500-7550, just 50-100 points below the current S&P level, and triggering systematic selling could pivot over $100 billion in flows. The Russell has already rolled over, so the S&P is fragile.
Gold correction likely over; buy dips.
Gold completed a two-year bull market that ended in January 2026 near $5600, then corrected about 25% over six months. It broke out in August and is now backfilling. Real rates are a headwind but the weaker dollar is a tailwind, and speculative positioning is not crowded. Patrick leans toward the correction being over and thinks gold should be bought on dips, possibly after several more months of consolidation into the midterms.
Uranium uptrend and miners breaking out.
U3O8 is near $90 and continuing to trend higher, with general accumulation in uranium. Uranium miners have broken out and are correlating with gold miners. Patrick is watching whether uranium has also turned the corner and started a more bullish trend.
Yen breakout may start new uptrend.
The yen has substantially pivoted over the past month and a half, starting with intervention and then a breakout above the 50-week moving average. That is significant because the yen had been in a decisive downtrend for almost a year and a half, and key breakouts like this tend to follow through. The generally weakening US dollar further supports the yen becoming the strongest currency. Patrick is watching whether dips are bought and a new trend is established.
Grains rally on genuine supply risks.
Corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar, bean oil, and bean meal have reached the 100th percentile on one-year and three-year positioning. Corn shorts have been squeezed, and gross longs are at a five-year high, so the trade is crowded. However, Patrick is not ready to short it because the agricultural complex is repricing genuine supply risk from Ukraine logistics and weather issues such as El Nino, and dips are still being bought.
This Macro Voices video, published September 10, 2026,
features Patrick Ceresna
discussing NVDA, WTI, BNO, 10-Year Treasury Note, 30-year Treasury bond, SPY, GLD, URANIUM, URA, FXY, WEAT, SOYB, CANE, DBA, CORN.
8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Patrick Ceresna
· Tickers:
NVDA,
WTI,
BNO,
10-Year Treasury Note,
30-year Treasury bond,
SPY,
GLD,
URANIUM,
URA,
FXY,
WEAT,
SOYB,
CANE,
DBA,
CORN
