Will 'strong momentum' come from the rate freeze? | Park Jun-woo, Research Fellow at Hana Securities Research Center

Summary

Park Jun-woo of Hana Securities Research Center discusses the September FOMC outlook and argues the Fed will likely freeze, then hike about twice, with market rates rising through year-end. He says oil, not rates, is the main source of recent market pressure, driven by supply disruptions and refining shortages. He distinguishes good rate rises from bad ones and prefers risk assets over government bonds if tightening remains gradual, while also naming stocks and gold as top assets.

• Fed is expected to freeze in September and then deliver roughly two hikes.
• Market interest rates are forecast to rise through year-end, with Treasury yields leading policy rates.
• Oil is presented as the key recent driver of inflation and market weakness, not rates themselves.
• Supply disruptions, OPEC fragmentation, and refining capacity shortages support higher energy prices.
• A September hike would be more negative for stocks than a freeze because it would compound oil-driven tightening fears.
• Risk assets, including equities and corporate credit, are favored over government bonds if tightening stays gradual.
• Gold is named as one of the best current assets, though without a detailed standalone thesis.