Oil To 'Break' Everything; Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold Crashing 'Back Down' | Mike McGlone

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 10, 2026 at 20:15  |  33:42  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
Mike McGlone — Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence

Summary

Mike McGlone discusses a late-cycle setup where the oil spike above $100 is expected to reverse and risk assets are vulnerable. He argues gold, copper, all metals, Bitcoin and equities are highly correlated stock puppets that look expensive and downside-prone, while US Treasuries are his preferred next trade. Key signals include record diesel, weak natural gas, grain/oil linkages, and Fed tightening expectations.

  • Crude oil WTI and Brent are above $100 due to Iran war and are expected to collapse once supply and demand destruction dominate.
  • Gold is highly correlated to stocks, extremely volatile versus Treasuries, and vulnerable to a pullback toward $3,000.
  • Copper is flagged as an accident waiting to happen with record inventories and stretched hedge fund positioning.
  • McGlone sees equities as historically expensive and warns oil, copper and yields could trigger a stock market correction.
  • He favors US Treasury bonds and TLT as a positive-carry hedge and next big trade.
  • Bitcoin is viewed as a bearish leading indicator after failing below $80 resistance.
  • Natural gas weakness is signaling lower energy prices.
  • Deflation is delayed but expected to become more extreme after temporary oil inflation.
Ideas
Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence 0:09
Gold overextended, vulnerable to drop.
Gold is now a stock puppet with 100-day correlation to the S&P 500 near 0.52, volatility twice the S&P at the highest in 20 years, and a 40-year high versus Treasuries; with the Fed tightening and 10-year yields near 5%, gold is overextended about 60% above its 60-month average, similar to the 2011 peak, and could fall back toward $3,000 before sustaining above $5,000.
GLD HIGH
Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence 0:26
Copper overdistorted, accident waiting.
Copper is an accident waiting to happen: hedge funds are heavily net long CME copper, global inventories are at record highs in LME/CME warehouses, copper trades at two to three times S&P volatility but has underperformed for years before this year, and its 100-day correlation with the S&P 500 is about 0.62, the highest ever, making it a stock puppet vulnerable to a downside trigger.
COPPER HIGH
Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence 4:49
Stocks expensive, vulnerable to correction.
Stocks are extremely expensive by the Warren Buffett model versus GDP, the highest since 1928, with stock market capitalization around 2.1 times total debt; combined with Fed tightening being priced and oil/energy at demand-destruction levels, McGlone is very worried about touching equities and expects a normal reversion or correction that could trigger deflation.
SPY HIGH
Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence 5:01
All metals stock-puppet vulnerable.
The entire metals complex has become a stock puppet, with the Bloomberg all metals index showing the highest 100-day correlation with the S&P 500 in 30 years; facing ECB and global central bank tightening, metals are set up bearishly and vulnerable to reversal.
Bloomberg All Metals Index MED
Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence 6:06
Grains tied to oil, reversal risk.
Corn, soybeans and wheat have rallied on unusual supply shocks: excess rain cutting corn yields, drought and geopolitics for wheat, and soybean oil tracking crude oil. But the grains complex is a crude oil stock puppet, so if crude oil drops, grains will drop too.
SOYB CORN WEAT MED
Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence 10:53
Oil spike reverses sharply lower.
Crude oil's surge above $100 WTI/Brent is driven by the Iran war and one man's decision rather than durable fundamentals; record Western Hemisphere production, massive surpluses, weak US natural gas and fuel demand destruction point to a sharp reversal lower, with $100 WTI a decent peak.
WTI BNO HIGH
Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence 17:07
Natural gas leading energy prices lower.
US natural gas's January contract is around $3.80, the lowest since late 2021 before Russia invaded Ukraine, and it is leading energy prices down as the number-one measure of heat, electricity and fertilizer; even with hedge funds short, it has not bounced, signaling further energy downside.
UNG MED
Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence 23:53
Buy US Treasuries as next trade.
With equities and gold expensive, Treasury bonds around 5.34% are the next big trade; TLT or bonds act as a put on the S&P 500 with positive carry and no time decay, and should benefit when stock market reversion triggers deflation or Fed easing.
TLT HIGH
Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence 28:20
Bitcoin heading lower from resistance.
Bitcoin broke up to a decent resistance level around 80 and is heading back downward; as a leading indicator for risk assets, if it stays below 80 and falls back to trend, it will lead everything that it led up back down.
BTC MED
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This The David Lin Report video, published September 10, 2026, features Mike McGlone discussing GLD, COPPER, SPY, Bloomberg All Metals Index, SOYB, CORN, WEAT, WTI, BNO, UNG, TLT, BTC. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mike McGlone  · Tickers: GLD, COPPER, SPY, Bloomberg All Metals Index, SOYB, CORN, WEAT, WTI, BNO, UNG, TLT, BTC