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Next edition in 545 min Oct 16, 23:00 - Oct 18, 23:00 Lisbon
Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Post-Market Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What matters now

Microsoft reportedly exited Nscale's UK data center deal after grid delays; smartphone shipments fell a record 22% as memory costs surged; Jim Bianco turned constructive on bonds; and Trump waived new Russia energy sanctions to ease diesel imports.

Main narratives

day change
01

Microsoft reportedly pulled out of Nscale's UK data center deal after grid delays

Microsoft has pulled out of a UK data center deal with neocloud Nscale, the Telegraph reported, per @business. Microsoft had planned a supercomputer with more than 23,000 GPUs at Nscale's Loughton site, which reportedly faced power grid delays. @TheBigBerbowski says the exit complicates Nscale's planned $3 billion IPO, with Microsoft and Anthropic about 85% of its contracts; @rjccapital says investors are pressing Nscale to cut its IPO valuation from $30 billion to $19 billion.

MSFT -0.5% · NBIS +6.4% · IREN +1.0%
02

Smartphone shipments fell a record 22% in Q3 as memory costs surged, while BofA and UBS call the memory selloff overdone

Worldwide smartphone shipments fell 22% year on year in Q3 to 255.3 million, the largest quarterly decline on record, per The Kobeissi Letter, which ties it to memory costs up 350% since last year; IDC warns the worst is yet to come, per Beth Kindig. BofA calls the memory-stock correction disconnected from fundamentals, per Paradis, and UBS calls the 19% memory selloff an opportunity, per a post relayed by Daniel Newman.

MU +1.8% · AAPL -1.2%
03

Jim Bianco turned constructive on bonds for the first time in six years as Joseph Wang called bonds a good hedge

Jim Bianco describes becoming constructive on bonds for the first time in six years, arguing yields near 5% are no longer expensive against expected nominal growth of roughly 5-6%, while expecting inflation to stay sticky near 3%. Joseph Wang views bonds as a good hedge into a dicey period of geopolitical and election risk. PIMCO's Tony Crescenzi calls higher yields a good fixed-income entry point while US net interest costs reach about 3.2% of GDP.

04

Trump waived new Russia energy sanctions to ease diesel imports as December 2027 WTI hit a contract high

President Trump suspended implementation of newly legislated sanctions tied to Russian energy exports and is encouraging Russian diesel to return to global markets, Bloomberg reports, with diesel prices a vulnerability roughly two weeks before the midterms; Russian officials indicate a few weeks before fuel reaches US buyers. Separately, @TheValueist notes December 2027 WTI settled at $80.54 on October 16, a contract high, and argues refining cracks are capped at peak product prices.

VLO -0.1% · MPC -1.2% · PSX +0.2%

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
Volatility +11.3σ
VIX -1.8% · VIXY -1.8% · VOLATILITY —
+1 more VXX —
12 posts 8 voices base 0.8
Equity Indexes +6.6σ
SPY +0.7% · QQQ +0.8% · EWY +0.8%
+21 more SCHD — · IWM +1.8% · SPX — · SP500 — · RSP — · DIA — · ^KS11 — · ES — · NASDAQ — · NQ — · NDX — · AVUV — · AVES — · VTI — · VXUS — · SPHD — · KRX:KOSPI — · KRX:KOSDAQ — · VT — · EWJ — · VOO —
145 posts 83 voices base 44.9
Autos & EV +6.4σ
TSLA +3.1% · STLA +0.9% · 1211.HK -0.1%
+10 more GELYF — · RIVN — · F — · MBG.DE — · 005380.KS — · AUR — · DTG.DE — · GM — · BMW — · RACE —
56 posts 30 voices base 19.0
Hyperscalers +4.3σ
MSFT -0.5% · META -1.4% · AMZN +0.2%
+3 more GOOGL — · ORCL — · GOOG —
115 posts 58 voices base 44.9
NeoCloud +4.1σ
NBIS +6.4% · CRWV +6.6% · IREN +1.0%
+3 more APLD — · BRUN — · SHAZ —
164 posts 75 voices base 59.6
Thematic ETFs +3.5σ
SOXX +2.2% · DRAM — · SMH +1.9%
+21 more SOXL — · XLP — · XLV — · ITA — · XLK — · XBI — · DTCR — · CRAK — · BIZD — · SQQQ — · RAM — · ARKG — · VNQ — · XLRE — · AMDL — · IGV — · KMLM — · DBMF — · MGC — · 069500.KS — · DRIP —
84 posts 57 voices base 42.0
AI Memory +3.0σ
MU +1.8% · SNDK +2.7% · 005930.KS -3.0%
+6 more SKHY — · 000660.KS -4.2% · WDC — · 285A.T — · MXIC — · 2337.TW —
94 posts 56 voices base 59.5
Staples Retail +2.9σ
COST -0.5% · WMT -1.2% · TGT +0.4%
8 posts 8 voices base 2.2
Foundry Equipment +2.8σ
TSM +3.1% · INTC +3.2% · ASML +1.6%
+21 more LRCX -0.3% · AMAT — · KLAC — · AEHR — · TER — · FORM — · AMKR — · 131970.KQ — · ASX — · 101490.KQ — · GFS — · TSEM — · 2330.TW — · 3105.TW — · 688012.SS — · NXPI — · COHU — · ENTG — · 3443.TW — · Q — · UMC —
70 posts 31 voices base 35.2
AI Compute +2.3σ
NVDA +1.7% · AMD +1.7% · CBRS +1.4%
113 posts 54 voices base 61.5
Technology +1.8σ
AI-SECTOR —
12 posts 10 voices base 4.9
Streaming +1.8σ
NFLX -7.2% · CMCSA +1.7% · DIS +1.7%
9 posts 7 voices base 4.5
Packaged Foods +1.7σ
CELH +0.5% · PEP -0.2% · BUD +0.6%
+6 more KO — · MDLZ — · DEO — · 600887.SS — · NSRGY — · HNHPF —
9 posts 7 voices base 4.0
Capital Markets +1.3σ
OWL +3.4% · BX +3.5% · GS +1.4%
+13 more NDA-FI — · BOKF — · ECC — · CME — · ASST — · SFTBY — · EVR — · LADR — · 402340.KS — · ABCA.PA — · APO — · SATA — · BRK.B —
18 posts 15 voices base 9.6
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

2 positions · 2 voices

Selective / waiting

2 positions · 2 voices

AI infrastructure via calendar spreads

TheValueist says long-dated implied volatilities are still low and that 18-month 35-delta calendar spreads with a roughly 6-month short leg on AI infrastructure names look interesting.

@thevalueist Alpha #2 44 smart
$NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE: Long-dated IVs are still low.
NVDA
7d before-6.6%
since call +3.1%
MU
7d before-14.6%
since call +4.9%
SNDK
7d before-17.9%
since call +8.3%
LITE
7d before-25.3%
since call +5.3%

Fading / not buying

3 positions · 3 voices
YouTube
71 videos · 48h 53m Jim Bianco turned constructive on bonds for the first time in six years and Joseph Wang called bonds a good hedge, while All-In framed the GPU-cloud selloff as a credit and rate event and PIMCO's Tony Crescenzi said CoreWeave's junk-debt selloff shows bond investors imposing discipline. Open the desk →
X
4356 posts TheValueist flagged December 2027 WTI at a contract high and capped refining cracks, Jukan relayed Samsung's plan to build the NVHBM base die on TSMC 3nm, and Jim Liu detailed a Microsoft spec miss that delays IREN's H2 by 45 days. Open the desk →
Reddit
1171 threads Reddit argued over neocloud debt and whether a 5.1% 10-year Treasury beats SCHD, while posts flagged ASML demand outrunning planned 30% output increases and AWS compute reportedly sold out beyond 2028. Open the desk →
Substack
12 letters Gaetano trimmed AI exposure and is gradually adding back, including to hyperscalers, while Outlier Capital argues the AI infrastructure trade is being repriced rather than broken. Open the desk →