Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit argued over neocloud debt and whether a 5.1% 10-year Treasury beats SCHD, while posts flagged ASML demand outrunning planned 30% output increases and AWS compute reportedly sold out beyond 2028.
Themes on this desk
Neocloud debt
Posts compared neoclouds to debt-financed shipping lessors and called CoreWeave a leveraged bet on AI demand that could gap down, with one author considering puts.
Treasuries versus SCHD
A r/dividends thread weighed a 5.1% 10-year Treasury yield against SCHD's 3.2% payout, with a commenter arguing SCHD's yield can grow while existing bond yields are fixed.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeASML's planned 30% output increases in 2027 and 2028 reportedly won't meet demand
The post cites ASML's planned 30% production increases in 2027 and 2028 still falling short of demand, with customers ordering machines for delivery as late as 2030.
ASML's planned 30% production increases in both 2027 and 2028 won't meet demand, with customers already ordering machines for delivery
It implies a supply-constrained demand backdrop for ASML.
Source →AWS AI compute is sold out beyond 2028, per Ben Horowitz quoting Andy Jassy
The post relays Ben Horowitz quoting Andy Jassy that AWS AI compute is sold out beyond 2028.
Andy Jassy: AWS is sold out beyond 2028. Different from dotcom.
The post, relaying Horowitz, argues the shortage makes AI different from the dot-com bubble.
Source →US tech equipment and software investment reached 5.05% of GDP, above the 2000 peak
The author cites BEA data showing tech equipment and software investment at 5.05% of GDP, above its 2000 level, with a mix shift toward software.
Tech equipment and software investment is 5.1% of GDP, above its 2000 level BEA has private fixed investment in informationSource →
Centrus Energy pitched as the sole US licensed HALEU fuel supplier for reactors
The author is long Centrus Energy as the sole US licensed HALEU fuel supplier to the nuclear reactor buildout, citing a HALEU supply deal, backlog growth and a Guggenheim Buy initiation.
Everyone's chasing the reactor stocks. Nobody's asking who sells them the fuel. That's LEU. Quick thought experiment.Source →
Embecta trades at about 4x earnings after a guidance cut and 58% one-day drop
The bull case calls Embecta a cash-generative insulin pen needle supplier trading at about 4x earnings after a May guidance cut and 58% one-day drop, with GLP-1 fears overdone.
EMBC makes the needles people with diabetes use every single day, yet Wall Street is pricing it like it's about
The author sees deleveraging and the Owen Mumford deal as re-rating drivers.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteNifty IT rose 11.72% in a week, its best weekly gain in 18 years
The author analyzes the Nifty IT recovery, its best weekly gain since October 2008, citing positive macro and fundamental factors.
Nifty IT surged 11.72% in a week, its best weekly gain in 18 years (last time in Oct 2008) https://i.redd.it/xua62v3dl9wh1.png
The rebound comes despite ongoing concerns about AI disruption and FII selling.
Source →A reverse DCF says Netflix at about $70 needs roughly 9% yearly FCF growth for a decade
The walkthrough argues Netflix at about $70 requires roughly 9% annual free cash flow growth for a decade, below recent growth, implying a margin of safety, though the author stops short of a buy call.
Netflix reports Tuesday. Reverse DCF walkthrough At about $70, Netflix’s price needs roughly 9% yearly free cash flow growth for
Watch Netflix reports Tuesday.
Source →