CM CMCSA Comcast Corporation Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

The author argues the market is pricing a full collapse in Comcast, since a reverse DCF shows the ~$21 share price requires total cable earnings to fall about 5-8% every year forever. He contends that math needs roughly 10 straight years of price cuts, while today's drop is a one-time step (skipped 2026 price increase, free mobile lines that convert to paid in H2 2026) and customer losses have a floor near ~47% penetration, with business internet and mobile growing. His base case of -5% easing to -2% is worth about $140B vs $108B implied, or $30 vs $21 a share, with a $26-30 range and a spun-off NBCUniversal + Sky valued at ~$51B in 2027 plus a 6.2% dividend. The stated risk is that prices are still falling in 2027 after these one-time effects have passed.

SpaceX's nationwide spectrum acquisition and Starlink Mobile plan threaten to disintermediate incumbent telecom carriers, whose network infrastructure Andrew compared to railroads that lose value when SpaceX goes 'over the tracks.' He also said SpaceX could become a massive global telecom company whose market cap could rival or absorb incumbent telecom market caps if they cannot compete effectively, making the relative stance negative on AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Comcast while treating SpaceX as a developing positive watch.

The author has been buying Comcast aggressively because it looks extremely cheap relative to the cash it generates, citing $4.6B of Q2 2026 free cash flow against $2.1B returned to shareholders. The bull case rests on diversification beyond cable (broadband, business services, wireless, Peacock, NBCUniversal, theme parks, film/TV, sports) plus the planned separation of NBCUniversal and Sky from the connectivity business. Supporting catalysts cited are Peacock's first-ever quarterly profit with 48M paid subscribers and 5% Business Services EBITDA growth. Main risks the author acknowledges are ~$90.4B of debt, fiber/5G broadband competition, and structural decline with 167,000 residential broadband customers lost in Q2.