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Next edition in 544 min Oct 9, 23:00 - Oct 11, 23:00 Lisbon
Post-Market Alpha
Daily Alpha Post-Market Alpha by Buzzberg Research

What matters now

Trump's announced Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire has no Kremlin confirmation; Nvidia is reportedly in talks for Reflection AI and Amazon for Decart; Mizuho calls indium phosphide substrate the tightest optical bottleneck; and Citigroup expects smaller long-dated Treasury auctions.

Main narratives

day change
01

Trump's announced Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire has no Kremlin confirmation

Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday, effective immediately. Zelensky said it was news to him, a Russian Duma energy official said Moscow has no record of any agreement, and Zelensky reported a strike on Kharkiv's CHP-5 power plant hours later, per TheValueist. A Bloomberg analyst says the November Russian diesel volume equals roughly one day of US consumption. TheValueist calls refiners a bullish trade for six months.

VLO -0.1% · MPC -1.2% · PSX +0.2%
02

Nvidia is reportedly in talks to buy open-weight lab Reflection AI, and Amazon to buy Decart for about $7 billion

Nvidia is in early talks to acquire or invest further in Reflection AI, an open-weight model developer, per the FT. @the_ai_investor notes Nvidia already holds $800 million and the last round priced at a $25 billion pre-money valuation. Jukan doubts Nvidia means to compete with OpenAI or Anthropic and argues building its own AI would speed their shift away from Nvidia. Amazon is in talks to buy Decart for about $7 billion, per the WSJ.

NVDA +1.7% · AMZN +0.2%
03

Mizuho calls indium phosphide substrate the tightest optical bottleneck, with Sumitomo Electric and AXT holding about 85%

Mizuho, per @pequityresearch, says InP substrate is the tightest bottleneck in the optical supply chain, with Sumitomo Electric and AXT controlling about 85% of the market, and sees possible tightness through 2028; Mizuho projects global substrate capacity to grow 81% in 2026. @aleabitoreddit says AXT has stated $130 million a quarter of InP revenue capacity exiting 2027 and asks how far AXT can raise prices. The OCP Global Summit runs October 12-15.

AXTI +5.9% · LITE +4.0% · COHR +2.5%
04

Citigroup expects Bessent to cut long-dated Treasury auction sizes and possibly cancel 20-year sales

Citigroup expects Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to reduce long-dated auction sizes and possibly cancel 20-year sales, per Bloomberg. Joseph Wang attributes yield stabilization to strong demand at a 10-year auction and sees Fed expectations shifting toward no October move and possible December hikes. @ckcapitalxx notes the 10-year yield is at its highest since 2002 while stocks sit at all-time highs. The Russell 2000 fell for a fifth straight week, per a report @BarbarianCap shared.

TLT +0.5% · IWM +1.8%

Themes of the session

?
Z-score shows how far this edition's mention count is above or below the theme's own average across 20 comparable earlier editions. +2.7σ means mentions are 2.7 standard deviations above that average — simply, the theme is being mentioned much more often than usual. It measures attention, not bullishness or expected return. Themes need at least 8 posts; gold begins at +2σ, and σ is hidden when history is too thin.
Telecom Operators +6.9σ
VZ +0.3% · T +1.7% · TMUS +0.6%
+2 more SKM — · CABO —
16 posts 11 voices base 2.1
REITs +5.4σ
VICI +1.7% · O +1.5% · PLD +2.5%
+5 more CCI — · AMT — · SVC — · EPR — · DOC —
9 posts 4 voices base 1.3
AI Software +3.7σ
PLTR -0.1% · ADBE +3.3% · VEEV -0.9%
+21 more ACN — · CRM — · CCC — · SOUN — · APP — · 036540.KQ — · WDAY — · INOD — · AISP — · PTC — · TTD — · TYL — · CSU.TO — · TOI.V — · LMN.V — · IBM — · BOX — · GWRE — · ZM — · ZETA — · NOW —
50 posts 37 voices base 20.1
Banks +2.1σ
JPM +0.7% · C +0.9% · BAC +0.6%
+5 more RY — · BPE.MI — · BK — · WFC — · BMDPY —
13 posts 11 voices base 4.6
Satellite Communications +1.8σ
ASTS +0.6%
14 posts 13 voices base 6.5
Technology +1.7σ
AI-SECTOR —
10 posts 11 voices base 3.1
Equity Indexes +1.4σ
SPY +0.7% · QQQ +0.8% · EWY +0.8%
+21 more VOO — · EEM — · IWM +1.8% · SP500 — · EWZ — · VTI — · VXUS — · NIFTY50 — · BTP — · EWZS — · VT — · EWC +1.0% · VGK +0.7% · EFA — · SPMO — · AVUV — · AVNM — · SCHD — · EWJ — · FEZ — · RSP —
64 posts 47 voices base 43.0
Oil & Gas +1.4σ
DK +3.0% · CLMT +0.9% · MPC -1.2%
+14 more PSX +0.2% · VLO -0.1% · 2222.SR — · CVX — · SHEL — · PAA — · PETR4.SA — · XOM — · WMB — · TTE — · ET — · TNZ.TO — · ERII — · SLDP —
23 posts 11 voices base 11.8
Retail & Mobility +1.3σ
GME +0.1% · UBER -1.4% · NKE +1.4%
+7 more EBAY — · DIE.BR +0.8% · HD — · DECK — · GRAB — · DASH — · BABA —
24 posts 20 voices base 15.4
Construction & Infrastructure +1.3σ
ECG -2.7% · OTIS +1.5% · TOYO +0.6%
+10 more GALP.LS — · 4004.T — · WM — · AF.PA — · NWG — · J — · DE — · STRL — · EME — · FBIN —
13 posts 10 voices base 8.1
Thematic ETFs +1.0σ
SMH +1.9% · KBE +1.9% · XLRE +1.8%
+21 more DRAM — · AIQ — · BWET -8.2% · XBI — · SIL — · CRAK -1.2% · SOXX +2.2% · KIE — · IBIT — · IGV +1.5% · XLK — · XLC — · XLP — · XLF — · XLB — · XLI — · KCE — · XLE — · XLV — · IYZ — · PEJ —
52 posts 49 voices base 39.5
Metals & Mining +1.0σ
ANTO.L -2.0% · AUE.AX +2.1% · CLF -3.2%
+5 more 005490.KS — · OR — · ATI — · SCCO — · MMY.V —
9 posts 8 voices base 5.8
GLP-1 / Obesity +1.0σ
HIMS +4.5% · 02565.HK — · LLY +3.5%
9 posts 4 voices base 5.5
Foundry Equipment +0.8σ
TSM +3.1% · INTC +3.2% · ASML +1.6%
+21 more AEHR — · AMAT — · FORM — · TER — · ASX — · GFS — · LRCX — · COHU — · 131970.KQ — · 6223.TWO -6.4% · 036930.KQ — · VECO — · ASMI — · KLAC — · UMC — · 6857.T — · ONTO — · 403870.KQ — · 039030.KQ — · 031980.KQ — · SOI —
55 posts 35 voices base 37.2
Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

3 positions · 3 voices

Selective / waiting

3 positions · 3 voices

Fading / not buying

2 positions · 2 voices
YouTube
75 videos · 49h 29m Joseph Wang sees bond-market stabilization after a strong 10-year auction, while a Bloomberg analyst says the November Russian diesel volume equals about one day of US consumption. Open the desk →
X
3723 posts Gavin Baker argued open-weight models are positive for AI infrastructure, bubbleboi called $7 billion for Decart a steal, and TheValueist tracked the unconfirmed energy ceasefire. Open the desk →
Reddit
1480 threads Reddit posts weighed ASML's Q4 guidance bar, the split between telecom carriers and tower stocks after SpaceX's spectrum deal, and a $1.32 billion Nebius contract at AIB. Open the desk →
Substack
16 letters Capital Flows argues devaluation is not bullish, and Gaetano is launching weekly updates with Optics, Hyperscalers and Physical AI baskets. Open the desk →