u/OilAny787

Author argues SNOW is a great business but wrong price after Q2: at ~$337 it trades near 20x forward product revenue, remains GAAP unprofitable, missed FCF ($83.8M vs $104M expected), and guided product gross margin down to 74% because AI workloads are more compute intensive. Despite a beat-and-raise, full-year product revenue guidance raised to $6.07B, NRR at 126%, and analyst target hikes, the post-earnings breakout to ~$384 failed and the stock closed around $337, which the author reads as the marginal buyer being tapped out. The catalyst is the December 2 print: a fourth straight quarter of acceleration would invalidate the bearish view, while flattening growth or continued margin mix compression could make the 20x multiple fall fast. The author is positioned bearish short term via a 380/300 bear spread expiring Jan 17 on underlying proxy SNOW.

The author argues CAT has been repriced as an AI infrastructure play rather than a cyclical machinery company, leaving it at about 49x trailing and 39x forward earnings versus Cummins near 24x forward, with the sell-side average target below the current price and Burry's disclosed short at $1,060.98 as supporting evidence. The specific catalyst is Q2 earnings on Aug 4, where management's guided $2.2-2.4B tariff costs could again squeeze power and energy margins and make the AI narrative harder to defend. The author expresses this as a January bear put spread on CAT as the underlying proxy rather than a naked position to avoid earnings IV, and flags the main risk that AI power capex and record backlog are structural enough for CAT to keep re-rating in a strong uptrend.

Author says Nebius is a full-stack AI cloud with $50B contracted revenue, including Meta and Microsoft contracts, plus Nvidia backing, and he has held it since October as a decent position. The catalyst is upcoming Q1 2026 results, specifically ARR trajectory, Microsoft tranche delivery/full run-rate timing, and Eigen AI integration into Token Factory. The main risks are $16-20B 2026 capex, negative EBIT all year, ugly EPS, and execution slippage across 9 new data centres; he is not adding at $180 but sees below $140 as attractive long term.