Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Gavin Baker argued open-weight models are positive for AI infrastructure, bubbleboi called $7 billion for Decart a steal, and TheValueist tracked the unconfirmed energy ceasefire.
Themes on this desk
Nvidia and Reflection AI
Bloomberg relayed the FT report that Nvidia is in talks to buy or invest further in Reflection AI; @daniel_koss notes Reflection already has a $1B+ compute deal with Nebius.
OCP optics week
PhotonCap lists confirmed OCP sessions, including Lumentum's October 14 CPO external-laser session and a Lumentum-Oracle OCS presentation on October 15.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Open-weight models that decrease margins at the model layer are positive for AI infra, exhibit 1001.2 Since the @Silicon_Data “token…
…index,” which captures both price and mix, peaked on May 31: B300 prices are up 38% B200 prices are up 10% Other GPU indices are up *much* more. https://t.co/PdudhD5skr
Open-weight models that decrease margins at the model layer are positive for AI infra, exhibit 1001.2 Since the @Silicon_Data “tokenSource →
Jukan: Apple raised iPhone Duo orders 30% and shifted Pro orders to the Pro Max
Citing Apple supply-chain sources, Jukan reports iPhone Duo orders up 30% but below 10 million units, iPhone 18 Pro orders cut 10-15% and Pro Max orders up 10-15%, with total Pro series orders unchanged.
[Exclusive] Apple Increases iPhone Duo Orders by 30%;
Supply-chain sources read the shift to higher-value models as positive for earnings across Apple's supply chain.
Source →@aleabitoreddit: AXT stated $130 million a quarter of InP revenue capacity exiting 2027
@aleabitoreddit thinks almost everything about the 2025 AXT thesis on the InP substrate bottleneck was validated, citing AXT's stated $130 million a quarter of InP revenue capacity exiting 2027, about $520 million annualized.
I think almost everything about my $AXTI thesis from 2025 was validated? From AXT's position in the InP substrate bottleneck...
The open question raised is how much AXT can raise prices: substrates are a tiny part of the bill of materials but can threaten hyperscaler buildouts.
Watch AXT price increases on InP substrates.
Source →bubbleboi: $7 billion for Decart is a steal because Decart engineers made Trainium work
bubbleboi says $7 billion for Decart is a steal, arguing the only reason Trainium works is the Decart engineers and that the Trainium software stack was, and still somewhat is, bad.
$7 billion for Decart is a steal considering the only reason Trainium works is because of the Decart engineers in
bubbleboi says customers who are not big AWS clients are left to figure out how to get tokens out of Trainium on their own.
Watch Adoption of Trainium outside AWS's biggest clients.
Source →TheValueist: Kharkiv's CHP-5 struck hours after Trump's energy ceasefire announcement
TheValueist reports that Zelensky said the ceasefire announcement was news to him, a Russian Duma energy official says Moscow has no record of any agreement, and Zelensky reported a strike on Kharkiv's CHP-5 plant hours later.
KHARKIV CHP-5 STRUCK HOURS AFTER TRUMP'S ENERGY CEASEFIRE ANNOUNCEMENT • Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine on
The ceasefire is unconfirmed by the Kremlin, and the FT reports the US is threatening Ukraine's weapons-procurement pipeline over refinery strikes.
Watch Kremlin confirmation of the energy ceasefire.
Source →