Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit posts weighed ASML's Q4 guidance bar, the split between telecom carriers and tower stocks after SpaceX's spectrum deal, and a $1.32 billion Nebius contract at AIB.
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AI lab valuations
Posts questioned whether Anthropic's reported ~$2T IPO target can be justified after ~$145B raised, and one author claims leaked figures show its revenue run rate peaked in July.
Russian diesel deal
An r/energy post argues the confirmed 300,000-ton Russian diesel deal leaves European energy buyers most exposed into winter.
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by score · day changeAmerican Express faces an alleged $13 billion trade-based laundering case against a $350 million fine
The author details allegations that American Express processed $13 billion of illicit trade-based transactions against a $350 million fine, arguing the AML control-failure finding is the larger cost.
American Express is now tied to an alleged $13 billion of trade-based money laundering, set against a $350 million fine.
The author expects more scrutiny of Amex's expansion plans and a higher bar for its Q4 operating-leverage targets.
Source →ASML's own guidance sets a steep Q4 bar before back-to-back ASML and TSMC reports
The post argues ASML's H2 guidance implies a steep Q4 revenue bar, and that a Q4 guide below €13.4 billion or a TSMC 2026 capex trim would signal AI capex peaking.
ASML and TSMC report back to back this week, and I think ASML’s own guidance has set a harder bar
It frames the two reports as a read on whether AI capex is peaking.
Watch ASML's Q4 revenue guide versus €13.4 billion.
Source →SpaceX's spectrum deal hit carriers while tower REITs rallied
The post notes T-Mobile fell 13% and AT&T and Verizon sold off on SpaceX's spectrum deal, while American Tower and Crown Castle rallied.
SpaceX sent T-Mobile down 13%. But tower stocks went UP. Here’s the weird part.
It asks whether the market overreacted to SpaceX's mobile ambitions.
Source →AIB bull case cites a $1.32 billion Nebius contract and its power portfolio
The author argues the market underappreciates AIB's $1.32 billion Nebius contract, its power portfolio and its potential to finance CLT1 without crushing dilution.
$AIB — A Small-Cap AI Data Center Play With a $1.32B Nebius Contract Disclaimer:
The author argues the market underappreciates the contract, the power portfolio and AIB's financing path for CLT1.
Watch How AIB finances CLT1.
Source →Ex-Adobe engineer calls Adobe a value trap
A former Adobe software engineer argues Adobe is a value trap, citing chaotic product management and a commercially safe but uncompetitive Firefly model that users largely ignore in favor of Gemini and GPT.
My take on ADBE as ex SWE at Adobe I see a lot of people posting here about how Adobe
It is an insider-perspective bear case on Adobe's AI product.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteD'Ieteren trades at about a 25% discount to a €226 NAV, per one valuation
The author argues the market implies only about 10-11x EBITDA for D'Ieteren's 50.3% Belron stake versus a fair 14-15x, leaving shares at roughly a 25% discount to a €226 base-case NAV.
D'Ieteren: the market values Belron at ~11x EBITDA, but the €32bn number everyone quotes is weaker evidence than it looks
The author expects the holding discount to persist and modest compounding of about 10% a year.
Source →Constellation Brands' beer shipments are running ahead of depletions
LineVest argues Constellation Brands' beer shipment recovery is running ahead of downstream depletions, making the demand recovery unconvincing until depletions improve.
Constellation Brand Q2 Fy2027: Is beer growth reaching retailers?
The author sees the demand recovery as unconvincing until depletions improve after inventories normalize.
Watch Constellation Brands' beer depletions.
Source →Kioxia pitched as undervalued ahead of Q2 earnings and TOPIX rebalancing
The author, who calls Kioxia Japan's most profitable company, argues it is undervalued ahead of Q2 earnings and a TOPIX rebalancing with $18.9 billion of inflows, and states the position is not being sold.
🇯🇵 Kioxia Is Now Japan’s Most Profitable Company. Q2 Earnings Align With TOPIX Rebalancing ($18.9B Inflows and Ongoing Passive Investments).
The author ties the stock to index-rebalancing inflows.
Watch Kioxia's Q2 earnings.
Source →