DI DIE.BR D'Ieteren Group SA Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

The author estimates D'Ieteren's base-case NAV at ~€226/share, implying a ~25% holding-company discount at €169, and argues Belron is worth 14–15x EBITDA rather than the 10–11x implied by the current price. They see a potential Belron IPO at €28bn+ EV as a catalyst that could put a higher public value on Belron, while the main risks are a persistent holding discount and Belron's pricing power fading. They hold DIE shares, are not adding, and would buy again below ~€140.

The author argues D'Ieteren's €169 share price implies only ~10–11x EV/EBITDA for its 50.3% stake in Belron (Carglass/Safelite), while the business deserves closer to 14–15x given 23% margins and pricing-driven growth from ADAS recalibration (job volumes are flat at +0.4%). The author discounts the headline €32.2bn Belron valuation because it came from minority holders buying just an extra 1.4%, but notes a seller-driven IPO priced at 14–15x would still put a public value far above the current implied price, alongside a €100m buyback executed at ~€172. Base case NAV of ~€226/share implies a ~25% discount, and even with the discount persisting that is roughly 10% annual compounding over ten years. The main stated risk is Belron's pricing power fading (and a listing discount staying at or above 25% six months post-IPO); the author holds, is not adding, and would buy again below ~€140.