UKGILT UK Gilt Index Загрузка... : Бычьи и медвежьи мнения аналитиков
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Лучшие сигналы
Лента
11:26
02 сен
02 сен
UK gilts face fiscal-driven pressure.
UK and global growth are better than expected and inflation will stay higher for longer because food inflation will accelerate next year; this means the Bank of England will hike rather than cut, contradicting market pricing.
Сред.
07:25
02 сен
02 сен
UK gilts are in firing line.
UK gilts are definitely in the firing line because the UK has acute energy exposure and there is real evidence of costs being passed on to consumers, which challenges the Bank of England's downplaying of the inflation threat. With fiscal risk and the budget ahead, markets may begin to price a policy mistake.
Выс.
11:26
01 сен
01 сен
UK gilts pressured by energy sensitivity
UK gilts face extra pressure from higher oil prices because the UK is energy-sensitive, inflation-linked debt automatically raises interest payments, and data reliability concerns compound the risk.
Сред.
10:22
31 авг
31 авг
UK second-round inflation is subdued.
The UK is so far seeing quite subdued second-round inflation effects, which allows the Bank of England to watch the situation rather than rush to hike; this supports a patient UK rate stance.
Сред.
10:42
28 авг
28 авг
UK gilts supported by fiscal discipline.
Paul believes UK gilts are supported because the market is too pessimistic on the UK, data and the labor market are stabilizing, the government is likely to stick to fiscal rules without a big borrowing impulse, and the Bank of England is expected to start cutting rates toward neutral next year.
Выс.
10:11
25 авг
25 авг
UK bonds benefit from recognized fiscal constraints.
The UK fixed income market is more attractive than France or the US because the UK government at least recognizes its deficit problem and acknowledges constraints, whereas other nations are making almost no effort to address their deficits.
Сред.
06:48
19 авг
19 авг
UK labor slack means lower BOE rates
The UK CPI jump is a lagged energy effect from the British energy price cap, but UK labor market slack means second-round effects should be smaller, so inflation is likely to fall quickly; the Bank of England is unlikely to hike this year and the terminal rate can be significantly lower than now, supporting gilts.
Сред.
12:18
18 авг
18 авг
Japan and UK bonds face vigilante pressure.
Bond vigilantes are clearly active in Japan and the United Kingdom because both countries have a lot of debt relative to GDP; Japanese bond yields have increased dramatically and the same is happening in the UK, making those sovereign bond markets vulnerable to fiscal-debt-driven yield pressure.
Сред.
11:06
18 авг
18 авг
Persistent inflation will force central bank tightening.
Inflation will be higher over the next year due to rising core goods prices, higher fertilizer prices, and climate factors like a super El Nino pushing up grain prices. The Fed will not dial back tightening and will hike this year, while the Bank of England will be forced to tighten next year due to fiscal stimulus in a capacity-constrained economy.
Выс.
17:21
17 авг
17 авг
Fiscal rules support German, Swiss, UK bonds.
Germany, Switzerland and to some extent the UK have fiscal plans or debt brakes that give bond investors more confidence, while unconstrained spending scares investors; this supports those countries' government bonds relative to issuers without such constraints.
Сред.
16:21
17 авг
17 авг
UK fiscal and bond backdrop looks supportive
The UK fiscal picture is less concerning relative to global peers. UK government debt-to-GDP of about 96% compares favorably with China, France, the US, and Italy, and the UK is the only one among these countries where the deficit is expected to be materially smaller in 2027 than in 2025. Year-to-date, UK 10-year bond yields have also risen less than US or Japanese yields, supporting the relative value of UK government bonds.
Сред.
12:15
31 июл
31 июл
UK gilts undervalued, risk premium excessive.
UK gilts carry an excessive risk premium relative to countries like France, driven by inflation and fiscal worries, but UK potential growth is higher, supported by services and AI, and the risk premium is too high; gilts should look more attractive over the next year.
Сред.
11:50
30 июл
30 июл
Gilts will sell off if BOE disappoints.
The Bank of England, like the Fed, is behind the curve on inflation; unless the BOE sends a resolute hawkish message at today's meeting, gilt markets will sell off as investors price in higher inflation risks.
Сред.
06:00
25 июл
25 июл
UK gilts and pound safe amid fiscal discipline.
The UK's fiscal position is significantly stronger than the US, with a deficit half the size, strong governmental commitment to fiscal discipline, and no risk of a repeat of the Truss crisis. The market is calm, the pound has gradually risen and remained stable, and the UK is not in a crisis. This contrasts with the US where the administration believes it can get away with anything fiscally. Consequently, UK gilts and the British pound are relatively attractive.
Выс.
12:28
23 июл
23 июл
Short gilts as fiscal clarity worsens.
The UK gilt market has rallied on fiscal reassurances, but as details of the new government's spending plans are specified, the situation may become murkier, leading Barclays to recommend shorting gilts.
Выс.
12:06
23 июл
23 июл
UK gilts safe, no risk of spike.
UK gilts look attractive; the new Chancellor committed to fiscal discipline with a buffer, the market has already priced in a political risk premium, and the commitment to rules avoids a Liz Truss-style crisis, supporting a long position.
Сред.
08:14
22 июл
22 июл
Fade overdone BoE rate hike expectations.
Markets are pricing 40 basis points of additional Bank of England rate hikes, but that looks stretched. UK inflation has delivered three consecutive downside surprises, and even with energy prices rising, the BoE was historically reticent to deliver rate hikes even at the peak of the crisis.
Сред.
15:29
21 июл
21 июл
Short UK gilts on fiscal risks.
The UK's high tax burden, squeezed fiscal position, and a leftward shift under Burnham risk pushing up gilt yields; market optimism could run dry by autumn.
Сред.
11:57
21 июл
21 июл
UK gilts attractive if fiscal rules upheld.
If the new Chancellor continues to demonstrate he is taking fiscal rules seriously, there are opportunities in UK gilts, as the bond market has already priced in fiscal constraints and the relative yield looks attractive.
Сред.
10:08
21 июл
21 июл
Short-term bearish UK gilts
Short-term UK gilts face headwinds from fiscal angst. The new UK government is signaling higher defense spending and energy bill tax cuts, which may be funded in ways that raise yields. Elevated energy prices add to the negative backdrop.
Сред.
08:05
21 июл
21 июл
Gilts underperform on renewed fiscal uncertainty
Renewed UK fiscal uncertainty from a new chancellor expected to favor higher defense spending, looser fiscal rules, and unfunded energy bill tax cuts is negative for gilts, especially against a backdrop of already high yields near 5% and a soft US CPI report, making UK paper likely to underperform US Treasuries in the short term.
Выс.
13:11
17 июл
17 июл
UK gilts rally as political risk fades
UK political uncertainty has been priced into gilts with yields near 5%. If the new prime minister removes that uncertainty premium, gilts could have a reasonable repricing rally.
Сред.
07:50
17 июл
17 июл
UK gilts have scope to rally
UK gilts have underperformed due to energy-price sensitivity, but with oil retreating and UK economic data weak relative to the US, the Bank of England has more scope to ease policy. This creates potential for gilt yields to move lower, making gilts attractive relative to US Treasuries.
Сред.
10:25
14 июл
14 июл
BOE won't deliver priced hikes, gilts rally
The market is pricing two further Bank of England rate hikes this year due to war-driven UK inflation fears, but underlying inflationary pressures are actually subsiding. The BOE's scenario framework from February suggests patience; as energy inflation data evolves, the Bank is likely to stay on hold rather than deliver the hikes priced, implying UK gilt yields will fall and prices rise.
Сред.
10:31
10 июл
10 июл
UK gilts attractive amid low hikes.
We are underweight bonds overall but like UK gilts. With less pressure for rate hikes after the change of prime minister and a more left-leaning government not signaling major policy shifts, gilts offer relative value and upside potential.
Сред.
11:20
02 июл
02 июл
UK Gilts and EM bonds offer attractive yields.
UK Gilts and emerging-market hard currency bonds offer attractive high yields for long-term investors, as the UK economy is not conducive to a big hiking cycle.
Сред.
10:17
30 июн
30 июн
UK gilts to rally on policy credibility
Andy Burnham's plans for economic devolution, transparent long-term infrastructure planning, and credible fiscal policy will improve UK growth and reduce debt, benefiting UK government bonds. The gilt market has already outperformed other markets since the by-election, reflecting returning credibility.
Сред.
10:05
29 июн
29 июн
BOE won't hike, gilts bullish
With oil prices coming down and a weak economic background, there is no reason for the Bank of England to hike rates, contrary to market pricing. ING does not expect a hike; the UK political situation is being ignored by markets, which is different from Europe.
Сред.
07:40
25 июн
25 июн
BOE less hawkish, buy gilts
Markets are pricing too many UK rate hikes, but the Bank of England will remain on hold and is biased towards cutting; the monetary policy outlook is more benign, favoring a rally in UK government bonds.
Сред.
15:31
22 июн
22 июн
Государственные облигации Великобритании сталкиваются с фискальными рисками, следите за развитием событий
Политический сдвиг в Великобритании в сторону Энди Бернема повышает вероятность смягчения фискальной политики, что может оказать давление на государственные облигации (гилты). Тем не менее, кандидаты, скорее всего, пообещают соблюдать фискальные правила, что ограничит вероятность распродажи в стиле Лиз Трасс. Рынок уже отреагировал на прошлой неделе; ключевой риск заключается в том, что если Эд Милибэнд станет канцлером, это спровоцирует более масштабную распродажу. На данный момент гилты сталкиваются с фискальными препятствиями, но не с крахом.
Сред.
Об аналитическом покрытии UKGILT
Buzzberg отслеживает UKGILT (UK Gilt Index) в 8 источниках. Бычьих сигналов: 31, медвежьих: 10, от 49 аналитиков. Сентимент преимущественно бычий (36%). Всего отслеживается 59 торговых идей. За последние 7 дней: бычьих: 2, медвежьих: 2, наблюдение: 1. Последние спикеры: Adam Linton, Skyler, Andrew Bailey.