Hugh Gimber

Beneficiaries of the $700 billion AI capex spend have more stable earnings visibility than the spenders whose ROI remains uncertain; the next step for the semi story requires hyperscaler commitments to rise, but recipients are better positioned.

UK equities serve as a hedge against further Middle East escalation and offer diversification from AI-heavy markets; a new prime minister providing more clarity could be a catalyst for international flows to return.

Emerging markets remain underappreciated and are the prime recipients of massive US tech spending, with Korea and Taiwan, in particular, benefiting. Despite strong performance, forward valuations have actually compressed, creating an opportunity.

Emerging markets remain underappreciated and are the prime recipients of massive US tech spending, with Korea and Taiwan, in particular, benefiting. Despite strong performance, forward valuations have actually compressed, creating an opportunity.

The Supreme Court struck down the reciprocal tariff mechanism, leading Trump to haphazardly boost tariffs to 15%. Ven Ram notes the US trade deficit is at multi-decade highs, while the Eurozone has a current account surplus. Typically, tariffs strengthen the domestic currency (import compression). However, the *uncertainty* of the policy (150-day windows, legal challenges, refund chaos) is acting as a risk premium on US assets. The market is punishing the chaos rather than rewarding the protectionism. Bearish USD / Bullish EUR. If EURUSD hits 1.20, the ECB may be forced to cut rates aggressively to protect European exporters, reversing the trend.