US-Iran War Expands To Red Sea: What It Means For Markets | The Pulse 7/23/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 23, 2026 at 12:28  |  48:17  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Themos Fiotakis — Barclays, Global Head of FX Strategy and EM Macro Strategy
Matthew — Technology Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Rachel Ellehuus — Director-General, RUSI

Summary

The episode covers escalating US-Iran conflict with Houthis opening a Red Sea front, Alphabet's massive AI capex hike raising spending concerns, UK Chancellor John Healey pledging fiscal discipline, and ECB holding rates amid geopolitical uncertainty. Barclays strategist recommends shorting UK gilts and sees dollar-yen rallying, while oil prices rise on supply disruptions.

  • Houthis claim first Red Sea commercial ship attack in months, expanding US-Iran war front.
  • Alphabet raises AI capex forecast to as much as $205bn, reigniting fiscal discipline worries.
  • STMicro shares sink as Q2 outlook misses estimates, profitability far below expectations.
  • UK Chancellor John Healey commits to fiscal rules and makes pro-business pitch to City of London.
  • Barclays' Themos Fiotakis recommends short UK gilts as fiscal clarity may worsen.
  • Fiotakis is bullish on USD/JPY, expecting dollar to strengthen on higher yields.
  • Oil prices extend rally on Red Sea flashpoint and ongoing Middle East supply disruption fears.
  • ECB holds rates unchanged, weighing geopolitical risks and new economic projections in September.
Ideas
Themos Fiotakis Barclays, Global Head of FX Strategy and EM Macro Strategy 4:18
Oil prices stay high amid conflict.
Oil prices are moving higher due to escalating Middle East conflict (Houthi attacks in Red Sea) and solid US growth with AI capex spending, keeping prices elevated and volatile.
WTI MED
Themos Fiotakis Barclays, Global Head of FX Strategy and EM Macro Strategy 8:13
Short gilts as fiscal clarity worsens.
The UK gilt market has rallied on fiscal reassurances, but as details of the new government's spending plans are specified, the situation may become murkier, leading Barclays to recommend shorting gilts.
UKGILT HIGH
Themos Fiotakis Barclays, Global Head of FX Strategy and EM Macro Strategy 12:19
Long dollar-yen on higher yields.
Yields are going higher, which supports the dollar, especially against Asia. Dollar-yen is likely to continue rising as the dollar does best when yields increase.
USD/JPY HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 23, 2026, features Themos Fiotakis discussing WTI, UKGILT, USD/JPY. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Themos Fiotakis  · Tickers: WTI, UKGILT, USD/JPY