Oil Rises As US and Iran Exchange Attacks | The Opening Trade 8/31/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 31, 2026 at 10:22  |  1:35:16  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Haig Bathgate — CEO, Kalanick Capital
Mark Cudmore — Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist
Michael Nizard — Multi-Asset and Overlay Head, Edmond de Rothschild
Andrew Bailey — Governor, Bank of England
Neil Campling — Tech/TMT Analyst
Arnaud Robert — President, Hexagon Robotics
Min Min Low — China Correspondent, Bloomberg
Alan Crawford — Senior Editor, Bloomberg

Summary

The episode focuses on rising oil prices after US-Iran strikes reignited Middle East risk, and on the market fallout from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech. Guests also discuss Fed rate hike odds, yen intervention, US and European equities, AI earnings durability, UK inflation, Apple's AI transition, and European robotics. Markets are lightly traded due to the UK bank holiday, with Europe modestly lower and energy names outperforming.

  • Brent crude rises toward $90 after US-Iran strikes and Strait of Hormuz disruption risks.
  • Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is viewed as restoring Fed credibility and raising September hike odds to about 60%.
  • Mark Cudmore argues the Fed message is ultimately good for stocks and sees no yen intervention risk.
  • Michael Nizard is constructive on US equities, US energy, and European equities while hedging with cheap Treasury-market instruments.
  • Andrew Bailey signals subdued UK second-round inflation and patience on rate hikes.
  • Apple's new CEO faces an AI test around the Siri AI release and new products.
  • Hexagon Robotics sees Europe well-positioned in industrial humanoid robotics, with scale deployments expected from 2027.
  • Shein's Hong Kong debut and Germany's Saxony-Anhalt AfD election are among other market-relevant stories.
Ideas
Haig Bathgate CEO, Kalanick Capital 17:56
Oil rises if Middle East escalates.
If Middle East hostilities escalate, oil prices definitely move higher; the longer the conflict goes on, the more second-order supply-chain effects feed through because China and others are dependent on Iranian oil, affecting consumer goods and manufacturing.
BNO HIGH
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 41:14
Fed credibility repair ultimately supports stocks.
Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech repaired Fed credibility after the July FOMC and sent a strong message; this is ultimately good for stocks because higher yields are for a good reason: restoration of credibility and a hot economy, even though higher yields disrupted stocks short term.
SPY HIGH
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 42:24
Higher Treasury yields likely eventually.
He pushes back on the disinflation camp; after years above target the US will eventually need higher yields, though there is probably no rush because inflation is demand-led and Warsh got the balance well.
TLT MED
Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 42:47
No yen intervention risk; stronger dollar.
Dollar-yen is not showing disorderly moves and is not at intervention risk; the dollar is strengthening in a slower, more consistent way after Warsh's message, and the 160 level is arbitrary rather than a meaningful intervention trigger.
USD/JPY HIGH
Michael Nizard Multi-Asset and Overlay Head, Edmond de Rothschild 50:04
Stay fully invested in US stocks, energy.
He is constructive but not complacent: he wants to stay fully invested especially in US equities and the US energy market, while buying cheap hedging instruments on the Treasury market because implied volatility is not expensive.
US energy stocks MED
Michael Nizard Multi-Asset and Overlay Head, Edmond de Rothschild 54:03
AI earnings cycle durability is underestimated.
The market underestimates the duration of the AI earnings cycle; earnings growth of 15-30% is broadening beyond hardware and semiconductors, and falling AI intelligence costs support margin resilience.
SMH MED
Michael Nizard Multi-Asset and Overlay Head, Edmond de Rothschild 55:33
European earnings durability underestimated.
Europe is undergoing a quiet infrastructure and industrial revolution; German and European equities should benefit from 5-10 year infrastructure plans and earnings durability that investors underestimate.
EZU VGK MED
Andrew Bailey Governor, Bank of England 61:33
UK second-round inflation is subdued.
The UK is so far seeing quite subdued second-round inflation effects, which allows the Bank of England to watch the situation rather than rush to hike; this supports a patient UK rate stance.
UKGILT MED
Neil Campling Tech/TMT Analyst 75:18
Apple faces pivotal AI product test.
Apple's new CEO faces an AI test with the upcoming Siri AI release and product updates; Apple is behind rivals in AI, with high expectations, memory pricing challenges and possible new partnerships making the September launch a big catalyst.
AAPL MED
Arnaud Robert President, Hexagon Robotics 78:28
Europe well-positioned in industrial robotics.
Europe is well-positioned in industrial humanoid robotics because industrial deployment requires reliability and perception rather than China's race-style demo focus; first real production deployments with BMW and Schaeffler start early 2027 and scale later in 2027 and into 2028.
European robotics/automation MED
Up Next
14:35
아마 추석 전후로 주식을 채울 예정입니다ㅣ체슬리투자자문 박세익 전무 [워매신박 / 26.08.31.월]
Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) · Aug 31
1:00:17
Beezie & Collector Crypt CEOs on Why Onchain Collectibles Are Exploding
Empire · Aug 31
22:30
[#EmergencyInterview] Don't rush! Gradual rebound with sharply reduced trading volume… The real reason it's fortunate but unsettling (Korean Stock Market) Hwang Yuhyun Team Leader
815 Money Talk (815머니톡) · Aug 31
37:14
"마지막 금리인상"이 진짜 경고 신호…증시는 오직 '실적'만 보세요ㅣ홍선애, 박승영 한화투자증권 PLUS자산전략팀장 [여의도 인사이트]
3PRO TV (삼프로TV) · Aug 31
1:10:01
KOSPI is Severely Undervalued, How to Overcome Extreme Volatility? | Chesley Investment Advisory Executive Director Park Se-ik [Womae Shinbak / 26.08.31.Mon]
Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) · Aug 31

This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 31, 2026, features Haig Bathgate, Mark Cudmore, Michael Nizard, Andrew Bailey, Neil Campling, Arnaud Robert discussing BNO, SPY, TLT, USD/JPY, US energy stocks, SMH, EZU, VGK, UKGILT, AAPL, European robotics/automation. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Haig Bathgate, Mark Cudmore, Michael Nizard, Andrew Bailey, Neil Campling, Arnaud Robert  · Tickers: BNO, SPY, TLT, USD/JPY, US energy stocks, SMH, EZU, VGK, UKGILT, AAPL, European robotics/automation