Jari Stehn 5.0 1 idea

The speaker laid out specific oil price scenarios based on disruption length: 21-day disruption -> $110/bbl; 30-day -> $130/bbl; 60-day -> $150/bbl. The price trajectory is directly tied to the duration of the conflict and its disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The longer it lasts, the higher prices go. The extreme uncertainty and wide range of potential outcomes (from quick resolution to prolonged crisis) make the asset critical to monitor. Direction is unclear but the risk is heavily skewed to the upside. A swift diplomatic resolution and rapid normalization of flows could see prices revert lower.