Bloomberg Surveillance 7/21/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | July 21, 2026 at 15:29 | 2:24:13 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Julian Emanuel — Evercore ISI

Francisco Blanch — Head of Global Commodities and Derivatives Research, Bank of America

Jane Foley — Rabobank Head of FX Strategy

Emily Roland — Co-Chief Investment Strategist, John Hancock

Ted Mortonson — Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Abby Yoder — JPMorgan

Robert Sockin — Citi

Darrell Cronk — Chief Investment Officer, Wells Fargo

Ariana Salvatore — US Policy & Political Strategist, Morgan Stanley

Joe Davis — Vanguard, Global Chief Economist

Summary

The episode covers elevated oil prices and product shortages from U.S.-Iran strikes, with Brent potentially above $100. The Trump administration announces a 50% tariff on some Canadian goods, while TSMC plans 10% chip price hikes. Tech earnings season kicks off with AI capex in focus. Fed hawks debate rate hikes amid sticky inflation, and analysts favor stocks over bonds, highlighting banks, value, and AI beneficiaries like Korea, semiconductors, and refiners.

Oil prices surge as U.S.-Iran strikes continue; Brent could exceed $100/barrel if tensions persist.
Product markets are critically tight; U.S. refiners benefit from record crack spreads.
Trump proposes 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods, seen as a negotiating tactic.
TSMC plans to raise chip prices by up to 10% next year, signaling strong demand.
Tech earnings season begins with Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel; AI capex ROI is a key question.
Fed hawks push for rate hikes; three hikes are priced in by year-end, but divergent views exist.
UK gilt markets face fiscal risks under new PM Burnham's spending plans.
Analysts favor equities over bonds; banks, industrials, health care, and Korea are highlighted.

Ideas

Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 6:37

Semiconductors will rebound on AI capex.

The semiconductor sector is needed for the S&P 500 to reach upside targets; the midcycle correction offers a stabilizing entry, and confidence in AI capex will revive the chip trade.

Julian Emanuel Evercore ISI 7:21

Korea equities are an AI proxy buy.

South Korean equities are a tail that wags global markets; buyers emerged last night, and Korea's dominance in the AI trade makes it a key long.

Francisco Blanch Head of Global Commodities and Derivatives Research, Bank of America 30:39

Brent crude likely above $100.

Global oil inventories are thinning rapidly, product shortages are severe, and if tensions do not abate for weeks, Brent crude could again trade above $100 a barrel.

Francisco Blanch Head of Global Commodities and Derivatives Research, Bank of America 35:45

U.S. refiners profit from wide crack spreads.

U.S. refiners are earning enormous margins because they benefit from cheap domestic crude inputs and record-high crack spreads on gasoline and diesel.

Jane Foley Rabobank Head of FX Strategy 43:16

Short UK gilts on fiscal risks.

The UK's high tax burden, squeezed fiscal position, and a leftward shift under Burnham risk pushing up gilt yields; market optimism could run dry by autumn.

Emily Roland Co-Chief Investment Strategist, John Hancock 55:29

Industrials offer lower-bar earnings growth.

Industrials face a lower earnings bar (less than 10% expected growth) and offer diversification away from stretched tech valuations.

Emily Roland Co-Chief Investment Strategist, John Hancock 55:37

Financials offer low-bar earnings upside.

Financials have only 5% expected earnings growth, making them a lower-bar opportunity that benefits from higher rates and loan growth.

Emily Roland Co-Chief Investment Strategist, John Hancock 55:42

Health care diversifies from stretched tech.

Health care has a very reasonable earnings bar and serves as a diversifier away from elevated technology expectations.

Emily Roland Co-Chief Investment Strategist, John Hancock 56:27

Mid-cap value outperforms in sticky inflation.

In a 3%–4% inflation regime, mid-cap and value stocks historically outperform because companies retain pricing power and benefit from higher nominal growth.

Ted Mortonson Senior Research Analyst, Baird 88:18

Palantir is a defense AI winner.

Palantir is a defense-oriented AI play that benefits from rising defense spending and is called a great trade amid sector rotation.

Ted Mortonson Senior Research Analyst, Baird 88:28

Semi cap equipment sees multiyear 30% growth.

Semiconductor capital equipment is set for 30% annual growth over the next three to four years as memory players spend at historical levels on capacity.

Ted Mortonson Senior Research Analyst, Baird 89:13

TSMC has pricing power in advanced chips.

TSMC is the gem among foundries; it has pricing power in advanced nodes and derives 32% of revenue from leading-edge 3nm/2nm chips.

Ted Mortonson Senior Research Analyst, Baird 89:24

Global Foundries offers pricing leverage upside.

Global Foundries is a laggard foundry name that is overlooked; it also possesses pricing leverage as the world moves to more silicon.

Abby Yoder JPMorgan 115:10

Hyperscalers monetize AI better than others.

Hyperscalers are becoming a consensus long because they have scale, vast data, and multiple business lines that will monetize AI spending with high ROI.

Robert Sockin Citi 129:08

Three Fed hikes will lift Treasury yields.

The U.S. economy is running above trend with sticky inflation and a tight labor market, requiring three Fed rate hikes later this year that will raise Treasury yields.

Darrell Cronk Chief Investment Officer, Wells Fargo 137:33

Stocks over bonds on strong earnings.

Earnings growth is driving equities while bond returns erode with rising yields; stocks are favored over bonds, and the S&P 500 target is 7900.

Darrell Cronk Chief Investment Officer, Wells Fargo 137:33

Stocks over bonds on strong earnings.

Earnings growth is driving equities while bond returns erode with rising yields; stocks are favored over bonds, and the S&P 500 target is 7900.

Darrell Cronk Chief Investment Officer, Wells Fargo 139:51

Banks benefit from record issuance and loan growth.

Banks are seeing the biggest quarter in history for issuance, loan growth, margin expansion, and have outperformed the S&P 500 by 600bps in 30 days.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 21, 2026, features Julian Emanuel, Francisco Blanch, Jane Foley, Emily Roland, Ted Mortonson, Abby Yoder, Robert Sockin, Darrell Cronk discussing SMH, EWY, BNO, UGA, UKGILT, XLI, XLF, XLV, IVE, PLTR, SOXX, TSM, GFS, QQQ, US 2-Year Treasury, SPY, TLT, KBE. 18 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Julian Emanuel, Francisco Blanch, Jane Foley, Emily Roland, Ted Mortonson, Abby Yoder, Robert Sockin, Darrell Cronk · Tickers: SMH, EWY, BNO, UGA, UKGILT, XLI, XLF, XLV, IVE, PLTR, SOXX, TSM, GFS, QQQ, US 2-Year Treasury, SPY, TLT, KBE