Calls
12
#262
Alpha Score 79.5
Francisco Blanch
Head of Global Commodities and Derivatives Research, Bank of America
Win Rate
91.7%
return
+9.1%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
May 18
$150.80
-6.4%
The global oil market is running a significant deficit of 14-15 million barrels per day, which is 15% below the level needed for prices to stabilize at $60-70/bbl. This deficit is expected to widen as peak summer demand approaches, leading to higher gas prices and potential availability issues in the US. The supply-demand imbalance supports higher oil prices.
Commodities
Long
Jul 21
$121.25
+6.2%
U.S. refiners are earning enormous margins because they benefit from cheap domestic crude inputs and record-high crack spreads on gasoline and diesel.
Commodities
Long
Aug 13
$86.39
+4.2%
Copper is super tight: Codelco has rebased its supply growth expectations lower, electricity demand is growing faster than GDP due to electrification, there is talk of a potential US copper tariff on January 1, and buyers are pulling copper into the US while global inventories deplete. Record US copper prices reflect these pressures.
Commodities
Long
Aug 13
$57.58
+8.5%
The world does not have a crude oil problem, but fuel and refined products are critically tight because three of the four main global refining centers are curtailed: Russia's ban on gasoline and diesel exports, the Strait of Hormuz product disruption, and China's fuel export restrictions. Bottlenecks are everywhere, and the tightness is showing up in product prices.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Aug 13
$29.70
+6.9%
The whole commodity complex is coming back to the fore over the next few months, with pressure in energy, industrial metals, agriculture, and gold. Policy is also supportive because the Fed is not pushing up the front end, fiscal policy remains lax, real rates are zero or negative, and the AI race is adding demand.
Commodities
Long
Aug 13
$10.01
+8.1%
Natural gas is a global problem: Europe is dealing with its fifth heat wave, nuclear power is running low, river water levels are low and warming, and the solar eclipse has reduced generation. Inventories are uncomfortably tight heading into September, October, and winter, leaving the market dependent on another warm winter.
Commodities
Long
Aug 13
$27.71
+5.8%
Agricultural commodities are ripping higher because weather effects and geopolitics are hitting supply at the same time, adding to the commodity complex pressures.
Commodities
Long
Aug 13
$401.30
+0.2%
Gold is finally showing signs of life as part of a broad commodity complex recovery, supported by lax monetary and fiscal policy, zero or negative real rates, and geopolitical and weather-driven supply pressures across commodities.
Commodities
Long
Aug 10
$40.25
+22.7%
European natural gas prices are likely to rise further as a potential energy crisis looms if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, compounded by a fifth heat wave reducing hydropower output, lower nuclear generation due to cooling water shortages, and already elevated gas prices near $20/MMBtu. The impact will hit Europe harder than the US given Europe's heavy exposure to gas imports.
Commodities
Long
Mar 10
$114.86
+19.6%
"The US is now a net energy exporter, so any uplift in energy prices is money moving for the most part from New York and California to Texas and Oklahoma and Louisiana." Elevated global energy prices caused by Middle East supply disruptions act as a direct wealth transfer to US energy-producing regions. Domestic exploration and production companies will see significant free cash flow generation without bearing the geopolitical risks of holding physical assets in the Middle East. LONG US energy producers as they capitalize on elevated global oil and gas prices driven by geopolitical premiums. The US government could aggressively release strategic petroleum reserves or waive the Jones Act, artificially suppressing domestic crude prices.
"The US is now a net energy exporter, so any uplift in energy prices is money moving for the most part from New York and California to Texas and Oklahoma and Louisiana." Elevated global energy prices caused by Middle East supply disruptions act as a direct wealth transfer to US energy-producing regions. Domestic exploration and production companies will see significant free cash flow generation without bearing the geopolitical risks of holding physical assets in the Middle East. LONG US energy producers as they capitalize on elevated global oil and gas prices driven by geopolitical premiums. The US government could aggressively release strategic petroleum reserves or waive the Jones Act, artificially suppressing domestic crude prices.
Oil & Gas
Long
Mar 10
$128.83
+16.0%
"The US is now a net energy exporter, so any uplift in energy prices is money moving for the most part from New York and California to Texas and Oklahoma and Louisiana." Elevated global energy prices caused by Middle East supply disruptions act as a direct wealth transfer to US energy-producing regions. Domestic exploration and production companies will see significant free cash flow generation without bearing the geopolitical risks of holding physical assets in the Middle East. LONG US energy producers as they capitalize on elevated global oil and gas prices driven by geopolitical premiums. The US government could aggressively release strategic petroleum reserves or waive the Jones Act, artificially suppressing domestic crude prices.
"The US is now a net energy exporter, so any uplift in energy prices is money moving for the most part from New York and California to Texas and Oklahoma and Louisiana." Elevated global energy prices caused by Middle East supply disruptions act as a direct wealth transfer to US energy-producing regions. Domestic exploration and production companies will see significant free cash flow generation without bearing the geopolitical risks of holding physical assets in the Middle East. LONG US energy producers as they capitalize on elevated global oil and gas prices driven by geopolitical premiums. The US government could aggressively release strategic petroleum reserves or waive the Jones Act, artificially suppressing domestic crude prices.
Oil & Gas
Long
Mar 10
$55.59
+17.1%
"The US is now a net energy exporter, so any uplift in energy prices is money moving for the most part from New York and California to Texas and Oklahoma and Louisiana." Elevated global energy prices caused by Middle East supply disruptions act as a direct wealth transfer to US energy-producing regions. Domestic exploration and production companies will see significant free cash flow generation without bearing the geopolitical risks of holding physical assets in the Middle East. LONG US energy producers as they capitalize on elevated global oil and gas prices driven by geopolitical premiums. The US government could aggressively release strategic petroleum reserves or waive the Jones Act, artificially suppressing domestic crude prices.
"The US is now a net energy exporter, so any uplift in energy prices is money moving for the most part from New York and California to Texas and Oklahoma and Louisiana." Elevated global energy prices caused by Middle East supply disruptions act as a direct wealth transfer to US energy-producing regions. Domestic exploration and production companies will see significant free cash flow generation without bearing the geopolitical risks of holding physical assets in the Middle East. LONG US energy producers as they capitalize on elevated global oil and gas prices driven by geopolitical premiums. The US government could aggressively release strategic petroleum reserves or waive the Jones Act, artificially suppressing domestic crude prices.
Thematic ETFs
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Francisco Blanch has 12 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 12 tickers since March 2026. Ranked #262 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: BNO, UGA, COPPER.
