FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust Загрузка... : Бычьи и медвежьи мнения аналитиков
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Лента
12:16
02 сен
02 сен
BOJ hawkishness supports yen strength.
A hawkish BOJ board member indicated he favors faster rate hikes, supporting Japanese yen strength as markets price more tightening.
Сред.
05:23
02 сен
02 сен
BOJ rate hikes support yen.
Julia Wang cautions that market expectations for the BOJ are already very aggressive: Japan's terminal rate is priced well above 2%, requiring the BOJ to hike and signal two or three more hikes. Because monetary policy alone has limits and Japan's fiscal backdrop is loose, the bar is high for further yen strength from the BOJ.
Выс.
23:10
01 сен
01 сен
LDP majority meant long Japan assets
Na eleição japonesa, Maurício antecipou que Takaichi mobilizaria eleitores jovens e mulheres e daria maioria absoluta ao LDP; montou posição comprada em bolsa e moeda japonesas, que gerou ganhos até ser atingida pelo ataque de Trump ao Irã.
Сред.
11:26
01 сен
01 сен
BOJ hike won't floor yen
A BOJ hike will not put a floor under the yen because rates are rising elsewhere and the yield gap versus the U.S. is significant; dollar-yen near 160 needs a lot more to support the currency.
Выс.
07:33
01 сен
01 сен
BOJ aggressive hikes support yen
Mahjabeen says the U.S. and Japan are coordinating on the yen, and ANZ expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates aggressively; that path would offer relative support to the yen.
Сред.
21:51
31 авг
31 авг
Yen intervention lacks market credibility
The yen intervention has not restored market confidence because USD/JPY has already returned to the 160 level that triggered intervention in the first place. Markets have not really bought into the intervention, suggesting the yen remains vulnerable.
Сред.
15:05
31 авг
31 авг
Yen and euro can outperform dollar
Erik Nelson sees the Bank of Japan delivering and sounding hawkish while the Fed does not hike, with FX markets under-pricing that relative shift. He also sees European growth surprises improving and foreign investors under-hedged on U.S. assets, so he prefers the euro and Japanese yen as alternatives to the dollar.
Сред.
07:44
31 авг
31 авг
BOJ hike should support Japanese yen.
Intervention risk around 160 is not a serious short-term threat; the more likely support for the yen is a BOJ hike this month, which is nearly fully priced already, and dollar-yen would need a sharp jump for intervention to be considered.
Выс.
15:38
30 авг
30 авг
Watch yen for intervention-driven unwind risk.
The U.S. intervention in the yen was very rare, including selling euros and buying yen and opening a FIMA facility for Japan. Alan reads it as acute U.S. sensitivity to rising Treasury yields and reluctance to let a large Treasury holder sell, but warns the 1998 episode shows intervention can produce a violent carry unwind, so USD/JPY is worth monitoring.
Сред.
02:09
30 авг
30 авг
Yen strengthens as BoJ tightens.
The Japanese yen has been driving global trading as Japan moves rates higher and is expected to hike again, pulling money back to Japan and reducing buying of US Treasuries, German bunds, and French OATs. That flow dynamic supports yen strength and adds pressure on the Fed to keep rate spreads from collapsing.
Сред.
16:38
28 авг
28 авг
Sharp yen rally may force carry unwind.
The biggest risk for traders is a sharp yen rally if the Bank of Japan hikes or signals hawkishly in September, forcing further unwinding of the yen carry trade; markets already price roughly an 80% chance of a 25bp hike.
Выс.
21:45
25 авг
25 авг
Yen intervention fails; yen likely under pressure.
The U.S. Treasury and Bank of Japan yen intervention is unlikely to work and signals a return to discredited currency policies; because interventions cannot reliably reverse currency moves, the yen is likely to remain under pressure and the intervention is not a positive for the yen or Japanese economy.
Сред.
15:00
25 авг
25 авг
Yen downtrend keeps giving.
Jerry says the yen has been a fun trend trade that keeps giving and keeps going down. He notes trend distance can be underestimated, comparing it to a prior Swiss franc versus yen trend that lasted years, and says yen is a good example of a slow and steady downtrend.
Сред.
15:30
23 авг
23 авг
Yen carry unwind remains unresolved imbalance.
Mark sees the yen carry trade unwind and official yen intervention as evidence of a macro imbalance in currency markets that has not been fully played out, creating more volatility and trend opportunities in the yen.
Сред.
13:00
22 авг
22 авг
Yen to keep weakening
Whalen personally expects the yen to continue weakening because the US-Japan interest rate differential is extremely important, Japan has very low rates and little economic growth, and the yen carry trade is gradually unraveling; he says Washington cannot really prevent this process, only manage it.
Выс.
15:56
21 авг
21 авг
Long Korea, Taiwan dollar, yen.
Carry trades can outperform, but FX should be selective; APAC currencies with heavy current-account surpluses such as Korea, the Taiwan dollar and the yen can perform.
Сред.
14:01
21 авг
21 авг
APAC currencies favored for current account surpluses.
Geoffrey still likes APAC currencies as selective FX trades, favoring those with heavier current account surpluses. Korea is already performing, and he is looking at the Taiwan dollar and yen as other trades.
Выс.
06:46
21 авг
21 авг
BOJ rate hike case strengthens.
Japan's July core CPI is accelerating again, with high oil prices and a weak yen pushing import costs higher, putting the Bank of Japan on track to raise rates further.
Сред.
15:37
20 авг
20 авг
Yen intervention signal worth monitoring.
Bessent suggests investors should question why the U.S. joined Japan's yen intervention and says he has asymmetric information; this flags the yen intervention as an important, possibly underappreciated setup to monitor.
Низ.
20:55
19 авг
19 авг
Yen strengthens with policy-backed dollar weakness
The Japanese yen is strengthening as part of the broad dollar selloff after the Treasury announcement, and Ulrich also points to the recent joint US Treasury/Bank of Japan intervention to defend the yen as evidence of the same policy alignment. USD/JPY was down about 0.9% on the day.
Сред.
23:02
18 авг
18 авг
Carry trade unwind risk remains amplifier.
The yen carry trade remains a key risk, but it usually amplifies selloffs rather than causing them. Current volatility in the yen and Japanese rates is still below the 2024 liquidation episode, so immediate mass unwinding is not evident, yet any abrupt yen strength would increase leveraged portfolio pain and should be monitored.
Выс.
20:00
18 авг
18 авг
Short yen, intervention won't save it.
He has been short the Japanese yen over the last two weeks, selling into Japanese intervention, and believes the yen is doomed. He sees Japanese intervention as a selling opportunity.
Сред.
19:34
18 авг
18 авг
Author says Treasury is telegraphing yen-buying intervention to prop up JPY. Official yen purchases would tend to strengthen JPY vs USD, lifting FXY. Long FXY as a short-term play on intervention-driven yen strength. Intervention could be temporary, poorly executed, or overwhelmed by carry-trade flows.
Сред.
01:44
18 авг
18 авг
Yen intervention failed; yen keeps weakening.
The July 31 joint US-BOJ yen intervention caused only a dead-cat bounce and did not change the fundamentals: Japan's M2 money supply growth is very slow, nominal GDP growth is weak, and a rising fiscal deficit plus the highest advanced-economy debt/GDP ratio add further pressure. Short sellers remain, and unless fundamentals change the yen will keep depreciating and authorities may have to intervene again.
Выс.
23:00
17 авг
17 авг
Monitor yen carry trade unwind risk.
The yen-funded carry trade is massive, and an abrupt unwind could trigger forced selling of long-term US Treasuries. The Yen weakened to 162-173, Japan became very cheap, and US Treasury officials are already intervening to signal that speculation will not be one-way. This is a key global risk to monitor.
Сред.
16:30
17 авг
17 авг
Yen downtrend contributed with intervention risk.
The yen had a strong downward trend that contributed nicely to CTA P&L, and the intervention-driven reversal caused only limited damage because risk management contained it, leaving intervention risk as a key setup to monitor.
Сред.
11:57
17 авг
17 авг
Yen likely strengthens over coming months.
The Bank of Japan will eventually move from its timid stance, and even without outpacing market pricing the yen is likely to trade stronger over the next few months as uncontrolled dollar-yen upside is no longer tolerated.
Выс.
07:17
17 авг
17 авг
Yen undervalued, poised to rise.
Beijing is likely to limit yuan appreciation to preserve export competitiveness, while the yen has more room to appreciate versus the yuan. This supports a relative yen-vs-yuan appreciation trade even if the yuan only strengthens marginally against the dollar.
Выс.
07:02
17 авг
17 авг
Yen rally likely fades; JGBs pressured.
Japanese GDP came in below forecast but is still likely enough to get the Bank of Japan over the line for a September hike. However, the GDP deflator above 2% shows Japan is not taming medium-term inflation, which hurts long-term bonds, and today's data do not justify a path to 2% neutral rates; without that, any yen rally after a BOJ hike is likely to be a knee-jerk move that is not sustained.
Сред.
06:06
17 авг
17 авг
The yen could weaken significantly against the dollar.
Option prices suggest the yen could weaken further to 170 or even 180 against the dollar by next year, driven by rate differentials and Japanese investors continuing to buy foreign assets.
Сред.
Об аналитическом покрытии FXY
Buzzberg отслеживает FXY (Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust) в 45 источниках. Бычьих сигналов: 78, медвежьих: 49, от 140 аналитиков. Сентимент преимущественно бычий (14%). Всего отслеживается 206 торговых идей. За последние 7 дней: бычьих: 7, медвежьих: 2, наблюдение: 2. Последние спикеры: Winnie Hsu, David Savage, Maurício Moura.