Why Trend Following Feels Wrong (But Could Boost Your Portfolio)

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 25, 2026 at 15:00  |  46:10  |  Meb Faber Show
Speakers
Jerry Parker — Founder & CEO, Chesapeake Capital
Meb Faber — Co-Founder & CIO, Cambria Investment Management

Summary

Jerry Parker and Meb Faber discuss why pure trend following is not the same as managed futures and how MFUT applies trend following across many markets, including individual stocks. They cover crisis alpha misconceptions, portfolio construction, volatility targeting, and the need to stick with strategies through drawdowns. Jerry also highlights recent energy and yen trends, while Meb argues investors materially underallocate to trend following.

  • Jerry Parker explains pure trend following versus managed futures and how MFUT fits.
  • He argues individual stock trend following captures outlier moves better than broad stock indices.
  • They discuss why chasing crisis alpha can reduce overall trend following performance.
  • Jerry defends letting winning trades run and avoiding overly smooth volatility-targeted returns.
  • He highlights current energy/crude and heating oil positions as having more upside potential.
  • He describes the Japanese yen as a persistent downtrend trade.
  • Meb Faber makes the case that optimal trend following allocations may be 25-50%, not the typical low single digits.
Ideas
Jerry Parker Founder & CEO, Chesapeake Capital 1:31
Pure trend following captures rare outliers.
Jerry says applying trend following to individual stocks rather than only indices matters because an index averages and mutes big trends. Individual stocks can produce outlier moves, and with thousands of stocks you can build a more diverse trend portfolio. He argues no CTA would limit itself to only the dollar index or Goldman Sachs commodity index, so limiting stocks to indices makes little sense.
MFUT HIGH
Jerry Parker Founder & CEO, Chesapeake Capital 40:48
Energy could go much higher.
Jerry says they handled energy well and still have good positions. He argues crazy things happening in energy now could push prices a lot higher, and they keep loose trailing stops while remaining long crude oil and heating oil futures.
HO_F CL1! MED
Jerry Parker Founder & CEO, Chesapeake Capital 41:07
Yen downtrend keeps giving.
Jerry says the yen has been a fun trend trade that keeps giving and keeps going down. He notes trend distance can be underestimated, comparing it to a prior Swiss franc versus yen trend that lasted years, and says yen is a good example of a slow and steady downtrend.
FXY MED
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This Meb Faber Show video, published August 25, 2026, features Jerry Parker discussing MFUT, HO_F, CL1!, FXY. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jerry Parker  · Tickers: MFUT, HO_F, CL1!, FXY