Intervenção histórica pra segurar os juros

Summary

Fernando Ulrich analyzes the US Treasury's August 19 announcement that it will double longer-dated Treasury buyback operations, interpreting it as de facto yield curve control and a regime shift toward financial repression. He explains the fiscal backdrop: US debt near $40 trillion, deficits near $2 trillion, rising interest expense, and resumed Fed QE. He argues the policy is designed to weaken the dollar and cap long yields, with market reactions including lower Treasury yields, a falling DXY, stronger BRL/CNY/JPY, and sharp rallies in gold, silver, and Bitcoin. He concludes that scarce real assets should benefit from secular fiat debasement.

• US Treasury doubles long-dated buyback operations from $2bn to at least $4bn per operation.
• Ulrich sees this as de facto yield curve control, not debt reduction or QE.
• US debt near $40tn, deficit around $1.95tn, interest expense above $1.2tn.
• The Fed has resumed balance-sheet expansion of at least $40bn per month.
• DXY fell below 98.8; USD/BRL reversed to 5.17; USD/CNY strengthened to 6.729.
• Gold, silver, and Bitcoin rallied sharply on the announcement.
• The policy fits a Trump/Bessent plan to weaken the dollar and cap long rates.
• Conclusion: financial repression favors scarce real assets over fiat currency.