Name: Treasury Markets not as “Safe” as You Think | Systematic Investor | Ep.414
Uploaded: 2026-08-23T15:30:22+00:00
Duration: 4446 s

Speakers

Mark Raspinski — Guest

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen — Founder & Host, Top Traders Unplugged

Summary

Mark Rzepczynski and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen review warning signs beneath seemingly calm markets, including a Korean equity bubble, single-stock blowups, yen intervention and inventory squeezes in copper and oil. The conversation focuses on U.S. Treasury market plumbing, the new buyback program, hedge fund basis-trade leverage, and whether Treasuries remain a safe asset. They also compare trend-following styles, diversification across models, and structural limits in short-term trend strategies, closing with a tribute to Victor Niederhoffer.

Korean equities are described as a bubble after a sharp decline.
Copper and oil buffer-stock depletion are flagged for extreme price risk.
The Treasury buyback program is seen as liquidity support but also a signal of stress.
Hedge fund basis trades and repo leverage are seen as sources of Treasury fragility.
The Japanese yen carry unwind is viewed as an unresolved macro imbalance.
Trend-following style classification and tick-size effects are discussed.

Ideas

Mark Raspinski Guest 2:34

Korean equities showed bubble; avoid.

Mark flags the Korean stock market as a bubble that had a huge run-up followed by a horrific decline, treating it as a warning sign of overvaluation and fragile risk appetite.

Mark Raspinski Guest 10:09

Low copper inventories enable extreme moves.

Mark argues that commodity markets get extreme moves when inventories and buffer stocks are very low. He ties the recent LME copper spread squeeze to low warehouse buffer stocks and says if users need copper and cannot pull supply, copper can experience extreme price spikes and backwardation.

Mark Raspinski Guest 13:08

Dwindling oil buffers risk price blowoff.

Mark says China and the US have been drawing down oil inventories and buffer stocks to smooth prices, but once those buffers are gone there is no cushion and oil or refined products could see a real blowoff price. He frames this as a key risk to monitor.

Mark Raspinski Guest 16:44

Yen carry unwind remains unresolved imbalance.

Mark sees the yen carry trade unwind and official yen intervention as evidence of a macro imbalance in currency markets that has not been fully played out, creating more volatility and trend opportunities in the yen.

Mark Raspinski Guest 20:37

Treasury buybacks stabilize long-end liquidity.

Mark explains that the Treasury buyback program, increased from about $2bn to $4bn a month, buys back off-the-run issues and reissues on-the-run paper, adding liquidity and stabilization to the long end but also signaling a dealer capacity problem.

Mark Raspinski Guest 41:40

Treasuries no longer reliably safe liquidity.

Mark argues that Treasury market plumbing is fragile: there is no cash exchange, primary dealers are capital-constrained by regulation, hedge funds are marginal buyers using highly leveraged basis trades financed in repo, and Treasuries failed to act as a safe asset in March 2020. He says investors may need to avoid them if liquidity discounts reappear.

This Top Traders Unplugged video, published August 23, 2026, features Mark Raspinski discussing Korean equities, COPPER, WTI, FXY, Long-Term U.S. Treasury Bonds, TLT. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mark Raspinski · Tickers: Korean equities, COPPER, WTI, FXY, Long-Term U.S. Treasury Bonds, TLT

Treasury Markets not as “Safe” as You Think | Systematic Investor | Ep.414

Summary

Ideas

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