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13:00
Apr 11
Apr 11
GOLD
SILVER
ITB
CVX
WMB
▾
Gold and silver are asymmetric bull trades.
Gold is a monetary play with global central banks accumulating and supply constraints. Silver has commercial applications and also faces insufficient deliverable supply. Asia has become the dominant price setter for precious metals. He is actively buying gold ETFs and accumulating, viewing both gold and silver as asymmetric bull trades.
GOLD LONG
SILVER LONG
US home prices have peaked and will be flat.
Home prices in the US have peaked for this cycle, with Q1 2026 likely being the statistical peak. He expects flat to slightly lower prices for the year and potentially years of sideways action, citing affordability issues and specific market weaknesses in Houston and Clearwater. He advises sellers to consider taking offers now.
ITB AVOID
Avoid oil stocks after their run-up.
He liquidated positions in Chevron and Williams after significant gains and is not a buyer of oil stocks at current elevated levels. He would consider re-entering at lower prices but is currently avoiding the sector.
CVX AVOID
WMB AVOID
Focus on income assets like mortgage REITs.
His portfolio is defensive and focused on income-generating assets. He mentions Annaly and AGNC as examples of mortgage REITs that are good for income, not for price appreciation (alpha).
NLY LONG
AGNC LONG
Avoid bank stocks.
He is not a buyer of bank stocks. He mentions this in the context of a defensive portfolio and his broader caution on the market.
KBE AVOID
14:00
Apr 09
Apr 09
GM
XLF
▾
General Motors reported falling Q1 sales, with Escalade sales down by double digits. The aspirational/high-end consumer is typically the last to weaken; a decline here signals broadening consumer stress and reduced discretionary spending. Avoid GM as a leading indicator of deteriorating consumer health, particularly in durable goods. A sudden Fed policy pivot or fiscal stimulus could temporarily revive consumer spending.
GM AVOID
Private credit contagion risk is rising, evidenced by Fed loan reclassifications and Morgan Stanley reporting negative investment grade bond flows. Stress in private credit and shadow banking can lead to a broader credit seizure, tightening liquidity for all financial institutions and impacting their balance sheets. Watch the finance sector closely for signs of spreading credit stress and systemic risk. Swift regulatory intervention or a surge in Fed liquidity could contain the contagion.
XLF WATCH
14:01
Apr 08
Apr 08
QQQ
GOLD
SILVER
▾
Henrik Zeberg
Head Macroeconomist at SwissBlock, Author of The Monetary House of Cards
short-term to medium-term
Speaker explicitly states "we have not seen the top yet," identifies the current ~10% pullback as a "buy the dip opportunity," and forecasts a "30%+ rally" in the Nasdaq to above 30,000. The economic deterioration (labor market, credit) is real but has not reached the critical "waterfall moment." Market technicals (bullish engulfing candle after >4 weeks of decline) and historical parallels (2000, 2007) show major indices can surge dramatically just before a crash. LONG because the set-up favors a powerful, final risk-on rally before the cycle truly turns. The speaker is personally "full risk on" in anticipation. The coincident indicators in the business cycle model cross into recession territory sooner than expected, aborting the rally.
QQQ LONG
Speaker is long-term bullish on gold but explicitly states "we are going to see another decline in gold" and expects "at least 50%" correction from recent highs. The recent spike exceeded expectations. Based on the business cycle phase (comparable to mid-2007), a period of liquidity shortage is still ahead, which historically pressures gold before its major bull run. WATCH for a significant pullback as a better entry point. The view is tactical (expecting a decline) within a strategic long-term bullish stance. A systemic crisis erupts sooner than modeled, triggering immediate flight to safety and bypassing the anticipated correction.
GOLD WATCH
Speaker states silver has shown multiple bearish weekly technical patterns and expects a correction of "60 even more percent" from recent highs. Similar to gold, silver's rally is seen as premature relative to the business cycle stage. Technical analysis points to a substantial mean-reversion. WATCH for a deep correction. The expected decline is even more severe than for gold. Industrial demand for silver surges independently, providing support that offsets macro and technical headwinds.
SILVER WATCH
13:01
Apr 04
Apr 04
GLD,SLV
APO
ARES
OWL
▾
Whalen states he is "buying some [physical metals] in the last couple of weeks" and is "more confident about staying long metals" due to supply constraints in Asia. The sell-off in gold and silver is driven by liquidity needs of Gulf states (e.g., selling for cash), but fundamental supply-demand imbalances persist, especially in Asia. The dip presents a buying opportunity for long positions, as prices may not return to these levels. Continued liquidity pressures from Gulf states or a resolution to supply constraints could dampen prices.
GLD,SLV LONG
Whalen describes private credit as a "slow-motion trainwreck" with redemptions, reputation damage, and a potential "Lehman moment" for firms like Apollo, Ares, and Blue Owl. These firms face liquidity issues due to illiquid strategies, public scrutiny, and reliance on bank credit lines; Washington regulators are ignoring the problem, exacerbating risks. Avoid due to high redemption pressures, liquidity risks, and regulatory neglect, which could lead to defaults or severe losses. If regulators intervene or market conditions stabilize, the situation might improve.
APO AVOID
ARES AVOID
OWL AVOID
14:00
Apr 01
Apr 01
GOLD
VTI
USD
▾
Brent Johnson
Founder & CEO, Santiago Capital
Short-to-medium term for the tactical addition; long-term for the strategic holding.
States they own gold as a strategic allocation for long-term safety/security and that it will likely "go down and touch its 200-day moving average," presenting a buying opportunity. Gold is viewed as a barometer and a hedge against global uncertainty and currency debasement. A dip to a key technical level (~$4500) would offer a favorable tactical entry point to add to the core strategic position. WATCH for a potential dip to the 200-day MA to add exposure. The strategic long-term holding remains intact. The dip does not materialize, or a major crisis causes gold to gap higher before the target is reached.
GOLD WATCH
States "95% of our equity exposure is US equity" and outlines four global scenarios: global collapse, global growth, US outperformance, or US recession with world doing well. He believes the US is preferable in three scenarios and the fourth is very low probability. US markets have the deepest liquidity, are best prepared to handle negative shocks, and have comparable/good growth potential. The US dollar's relative strength (Milkshake Theory) supports capital inflows. LONG US equities as the highest-probability, most robust exposure for a capital preservation and growth mandate, accepting potential underperformance in a low-probability scenario. The low-probability scenario (US recession while rest of world thrives) occurs.
VTI LONG
Reiterates the Dollar Milkshake Theory, noting the DXY is ~10% higher since 2018/19, and believes "the United States will outperform the rest of the world" and capital flows will continue. A global sovereign debt crisis (or fear thereof) and relative economic/military stability will drive capital toward the safety and liquidity of the US dollar, strengthening it. This is a multi-year structural trend. LONG the US dollar as the primary beneficiary of global capital flight and relative strength, which underpins the attractiveness of US financial assets. A loss of confidence in US fiscal/monetary policy that disrupts the capital inflow dynamic.
USD LONG
14:00
Mar 31
Mar 31
XLF
FCG
TER
GDX
SLV
▾
Recommended a short on financials (XLF) due to exposure to private credit and disruption from AI/software companies, a "double whammy." Private credit is a brewing crisis with bad marks and liquidity gates. Financials hold this risk and are simultaneously facing disruptive tech pressures. Financials are underperforming the S&P by the most since the financial crisis, indicating the thesis is playing out. The sector is currently oversold, suggesting a potential tactical bounce.
XLF SHORT
Bullish on natural gas equities like FCG and TER due to "trapped gas" in Canada/Texas and the need to power/relocate data centers. High energy and memory costs are forcing a reevaluation of data center locations. Natural gas in areas with trapped supply is a cheap, strategic solution for this multi-year buildout. Natural gas equities are breaking out versus the S&P, have great valuations, and are poised for a "real great bull market" over the next five years. A severe economic slowdown reduces energy demand broadly.
FCG LONG
TER LONG
Sold gold/silver miner ETFs (GDX, SLV, SIL) in January and is now buying them back after a significant drawdown. The pullback flushed out "tourists" and weak hands. In a new bull market, buying near the 100-day moving average is a sound strategy, especially when ownership is still low historically. Miners have been hit by diesel costs, but underlying metal prices (gold/silver) remain profitable. The secular migration into hard assets supports higher prices. A sharp rise in real interest rates or a deflationary shock could pressure precious metals.
GDX LONG
SLV LONG
SIL LONG
Made a first-ever Bitcoin purchase, citing a Bitcoin-to-gold ratio in the mid-to-low teens (from high 30s). The ratio suggests relative value. ETFs have democratized ownership, reducing concentration risk. The long-term thesis aligns with currency debasement and hard asset scarcity. Recommends taking advantage of the Bitcoin drawdown as part of the broader portfolio migration into scarce, non-sovereign assets. A major credit event could force liquidations from large holders, crushing the price despite improved ETF liquidity.
BTC LONG
Cites these companies as examples of those that own "lots of assets" and will benefit from the "Great Migration." In a stagflationary world, companies controlling hard assets (industrial, material, energy) historically outperform financial assets. Portfolio construction is shifting from the Mag 7 to these groups. These are direct plays on the multi-year rotation into hard assets, which is still in its early innings. A deep global recession crushes commodity demand despite sticky inflation.
BHP LONG
FCX LONG
Points to coal names being up 20-30% this year. Notes Dave Einhorn's Greenlight Capital has a top position in coal (e.g., Core Natural Resources). Demand is boosted by data center power needs and Middle East disruptions to LNG supply, making coal a more attractive global power source. The fundamental demand shift, combined with existing supply constraints, is driving outperformance. Accelerated global policy shifts away from fossil fuels, or a rapid resolution in the Middle East restoring LNG flow.
KOL LONG
States insurers (e.g., Met Life) are the "ultimate bag holders" of private credit, having been hoodwinked by rating agencies and sell-side research. Mentions clients have been shorting them. Insurers reached for yield in opaque private credit, which is now revealing significant credit risk. This mirrors the 2008 dynamic where insurers held toxic rated securities. As private credit marks worsen and gates trap capital, insurers holding these assets will face severe losses and balance sheet stress. A government-backed bailout or facility stabilizes the private credit market before widespread insurer insolvency.
KIE SHORT
13:01
Mar 28
Mar 28
GOLD
SILVER
▾
Chris Whalen
Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors
Medium-term, as he is adding on dips in response to ongoing geopolitical and economic shifts.
Chris Whalen explicitly stated, "I'm probably going to be adding to my gold and silver holdings" and referred to himself as a "gold hoarder," indicating accumulation on price dips. Stagflation is the base case due to war-induced inflation from supply disruptions, creating a risk-off environment where commodities like gold and silver serve as safe havens. LONG because these precious metals are expected to appreciate or preserve value amid economic uncertainty, inflation, and market volatility. If the Iran war ends swiftly or inflation is controlled through other means, demand for safe-haven assets could decline, reducing upward pressure on prices.
GOLD LONG
SILVER LONG
14:00
Mar 27
Mar 27
UST
BIZD
GOLD
MUB
EEM
▾
States we are in a secular shift where long-term Treasury yields will rise, especially in the next recession, breaking the 40-year pattern. Calls the fiscal path "completely untenable" and says higher yields are the "path of least resistance." $2 trillion annual deficits are compounding, and bonds rolling off at ~3.8% will be refinanced at higher rates (4-5%), exploding interest expense. This will force a market-imposed stop, leading to higher yields. Higher yields mean lower prices for long-duration Treasury bonds. He holds near-zero exposure and has swapped to the lowest-coupon bonds to mitigate restructuring risk. A severe economic downturn could trigger a flight-to-quality bid for Treasuries, temporarily lowering yields against his thesis.
UST SHORT
Calls private credit an "unmitigated disaster" and "only going to get worse," drawing a direct parallel to subprime mortgages in 2006. The market is opaque, marks are not real (citing an example of the same position marked at 95 vs. 8), and has a fundamental mismatch between private assets and offered liquidity. There is no incremental buyer, only sellers, and redemption requests will surge. A major shakeup is inevitable. Defaults will lead to significant repricing and highlight the incestuous, unhealthy relationship with private equity. A stronger-than-expected economy could delay defaults and allow for a more orderly unwind, mitigating systemic damage.
BIZD SHORT
States "gold is real money" and is "very attractive right now." Believes it will continue to be a strong performer and sees no reason to sell it. Central banks are a huge source of structural demand, potentially increasing their reserve allocation to gold from ~30% to 50%. It is being reintroduced as a legitimate reserve asset class. The combination of fiscal debasement fears, its status as a real asset, and sustained central bank buying provides a strong bullish backdrop. A significant, sustained period of disinflation and fiscal discipline could reduce gold's appeal as a hedge.
GOLD LONG
Explicitly says "avoid all general obligation munis in California, Illinois, and New York." Cites "absurd spending and tax policies and accelerating revenue erosion." Warns that rules can be changed (e.g., coupons cut, tax status altered) given political trends and wealth inequality, creating unacceptable risk. The risk of legislative or credit impairment is too high. He prefers revenue-backed municipal bonds with a secure income stream. Federal bailouts or a rapid improvement in state finances could stabilize these markets.
MUB AVOID
Recommends American investors have 100% of their equity exposure outside the US, with his "number one recommendation" being emerging market equities in local currencies. US equities are extraordinarily overvalued (price-to-book more than double ex-US), while foreign investments have started to outperform in real time. He believes we are in the early innings of a multi-year period of foreign outperformance. Significant valuation divergence and the regime shift (falling dollar, rising US yields) favor non-US equities, particularly EM in local currencies. A severe global recession could hit emerging markets harder than the US, reversing relative performance.
EEM LONG
14:00
Mar 24
Mar 24
COPX
ILF
DBC
EEM
SMH
▾
Speaker explicitly names COPX (copper miners ETF) as "really attractive," noting it is down 30-40% in a pullback. EVs use a ton of copper and are poised for increased adoption, especially post-Iran conflict. Exploration for new mineral sources is limited, constraining future supply. Direct bullish call on the asset. Copper is a critical physical input for the AI, defense, and renewable energy build-out, creating structural demand. A major global recession derailing commodity demand and the capex cycle.
COPX LONG
Speaker explicitly names ILF (Latin America ETF) as a focus, noting it is ~70% Brazil and ~1/3 energy & materials. Latin America is a source for the physical goods (metals, energy, materials) needed for the global growth long cycle. It offers exposure to the "pick and shovel" theme at a time when U.S. energy/material weightings are low. Direct bullish call. The region is a direct play on the commodity and physical infrastructure needed for global spending themes. Regional political instability or a collapse in commodity prices.
ILF LONG
Speaker states they are "significantly overweight commodities" (20% vs. benchmark 10%), with exposure across precious/industrial metals, miners, energy, and renewables. The global growth long cycle, driven by spending on AI, defense, and climate, requires massive amounts of physical goods (copper, aluminum, etc.). Supply exploration is constrained. Direct, high-conviction overweight position. Commodities are a direct expression of the core macro thesis that physical infrastructure build-out is essential and under-supplied. A sharp global growth slowdown halting the capex cycle.
DBC LONG
Speaker explicitly states, "we're bullish EM," and that the "baton of global equity leadership is being passed... to the emerging markets." EM trades at a discount to the US, is forecast for higher earnings growth, and is directly benefiting from regional integration and spending on renewables/defense/AI. The "EMification of America" theme accelerates capital rotation toward genuine EM. Clear, overarching bullish call on the asset class as the primary beneficiary of a secular leadership change. A systemic financial crisis or a major US market crash that triggers broad risk-off sentiment.
EEM LONG
Speaker names SMH (semiconductor ETF) as a focus within the AI theme: "we're focused on the semiconductor space. So, things like SMH." Semiconductors are the "pick and shovel" for AI development and build-out, which is a core pillar of the global growth long cycle. Explicit mention as a way to gain exposure to a critical enabling technology for the dominant investment theme. A sharp downturn in the semiconductor cycle or excessive capex leading to oversupply.
SMH LONG
Speaker argues "the US doesn't deserve that premium valuation" and that a "secular change in global equity leadership away from the US" is underway. The US exhibits "EMification" traits (volatile policy, institutional erosion) but trades at a premium P/E (~21x) while its earnings growth advantage has eroded relative to EM and other regions. The explicit view is that US equity leadership is ending and its premium will erode. The actionable implication is to underweight or avoid relying on US outperformance. A dramatic surge in US productivity or geopolitical reversal that restores its growth premium and policy credibility.
UST AVOID
Speaker states, "We have not had a treasury position in three or four years... no sovereign long duration debt at all outside of... in the DM developed markets." In a global growth long cycle with rising commodity prices and fiscal spending, the environment is hostile for long-duration sovereign bonds. The "EMification" theme also suggests higher term premium for US debt. Explicit, multi-year avoidance of an entire asset class (DM sovereign bonds) based on the core macro framework. A severe, deflationary global recession causing a flight to quality into government bonds.
BWX AVOID
Speaker states they are "bullish" on China equities, focusing on China within EM. Cites China's ~12x P/E vs. US 21x, leadership in renewables and automation, and potential to defeat deflation. China has cheaper valuations, superior positioning in key growth themes (renewables, embodied AI), and potential for a diplomatic rapprochement with the US that could unlock institutional buying. Explicitly bullish on Chinese equities as a primary destination for capital rotating away from expensive U.S. assets. Escalation of U.S.-China tensions (trade, Taiwan) or a failure to stimulate the domestic economy and defeat deflation.
FXI LONG
13:01
Mar 21
Mar 21
GLD,SLV
▾
Chris Whalen explicitly states he is adding to his gold and silver positions as they sell off, citing fundamental supply constraints and a growing pricing gap between Western and Asian markets due to delivery issues. Supply constraints, particularly in Asia where physical delivery is prioritized over paper pricing, create structural support for prices; current price drops are viewed as profit-taking or macro noise, not fundamental weakness, making dips buying opportunities. Long-term bullish on gold and silver; the asset class is a great trade due to enduring supply-demand imbalances, and lower prices offer an attractive entry point. Macroeconomic shifts, such as a strengthening dollar, rising Treasury yields, or a resolution to Middle East tensions, could reduce safe-haven demand and pressure prices downward.
GLD,SLV LONG
14:00
Mar 19
Mar 19
GOLD
SILVER
XLB
XLE
BTC
▾
Peter Schiff
Chief Economist & Global Strategist, Europacific Asset Management; CEO, SchiffGold
Long-term (5-10 years)
Schiff states gold at ~$4,800 is "cheap," predicts it will go to $10,000-$20,000 as the dollar debases, and recommends buying on dips. Accelerating inflation that the Fed cannot stop, coupled with an eventual dollar crisis, will drive real asset demand. Gold historically preserves purchasing power when fiat currency loses value. LONG because gold is the primary hedge against the coming "inflationary depression" and dollar collapse; its nominal price must rise to reflect the dollar's loss of purchasing power. The Fed executes Volcker-style aggressive rate hikes, triggering deflationary collapse and a short-term rush to cash.
GOLD LONG
Peter Schiff
Chief Economist & Global Strategist, Europacific Asset Management; CEO, SchiffGold
Long-term
Schiff states silver is at ~$75, had a "massive breakout" above its 1980/2011 double top near $50, and is in a "brand new huge bull market." Similar macro drivers as gold (inflation, dollar crisis). The breakout from a multi-decade resistance level signals a new structural bull phase. LONG because silver offers leveraged exposure to the precious metals thesis and is early in a new bull cycle; pullbacks are buying opportunities. A severe global recession crushes industrial demand, outweighing monetary hedge demand.
SILVER LONG
Peter Schiff
Chief Economist & Global Strategist, Europacific Asset Management; CEO, SchiffGold
Medium-term
Schiff calls gold mining stocks "ridiculously cheap" with "the most upside potential," expecting their 2026 earnings to "blow away estimates." Higher gold and silver prices will flow directly to miner profitability. Current valuations do not factor in higher future metal prices or earnings. LONG because miners provide leveraged upside to rising metal prices and are severely undervalued relative to the coming earnings power. Operational issues (e.g., cost inflation, labor strikes, permitting) prevent miners from capturing full metal price upside.
XLB LONG
Peter Schiff
Chief Economist & Global Strategist, Europacific Asset Management; CEO, SchiffGold
Medium-term
Schiff bought energy stocks when oil was below $60/barrel and believes oil could reach $150-$200 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and war persists. War-driven supply constraints, ongoing inflation, and historical real price comparisons (oil was $140+ in 2008) support much higher prices. Energy stocks were cheap pre-war. LONG because energy equities offer exposure to a rising oil price in an inflationary environment and remain undervalued relative to the potential price spike. A rapid, deep global recession collapses oil demand, or the Iran conflict resolves quickly, reopening supply routes.
XLE LONG
Peter Schiff
Chief Economist & Global Strategist, Europacific Asset Management; CEO, SchiffGold
Long-term
Schiff states crypto investors are "betting on the wrong horse," that crypto is a wealth transfer mechanism where buyers lose to sellers, and notes Bitcoin has been "cut in half." He contrasts money flowing into crypto versus gold, arguing gold is the correct hedge for the coming monetary crisis. Crypto creates no real wealth and will fail as a safe haven. SHORT (implied: avoid) because crypto will not protect against inflation/dollar crisis and will underperform real assets like gold as the macro scenario unfolds. Widespread adoption as an alternative monetary asset in a dollar crisis, creating a short-term bubble.
BTC SHORT
13:00
Mar 14
Mar 14
FLG
BIZD
SCHW
AXP
CVX
▾
"The only common I own is Flagstar because I bought it very very deep discount. They're slowly clawing their way out of New York multifamily real estate. I know the team. I know the CFO very well, Lee Smith." Flagstar was heavily discounted due to systemic fears surrounding commercial real estate and its specific New York multifamily exposure. However, strong new management is actively executing a turnaround strategy to clean up the balance sheet, presenting a deep-value recovery play. LONG. It is a high-risk, high-reward turnaround play trading at a steep discount to its intrinsic value. The turnaround fails, or further macroeconomic deterioration in the New York multifamily real estate market overwhelms the new management's restructuring efforts.
FLG LONG
"There's a lot of BDC's, both public and private, that have been playing fast and loose with the rules about leverage... when they get to the end of the quarter, they push the leverage off using a derivative. And this is fraud." Business Development Companies are artificially hiding their true leverage ratios to appear compliant with regulatory limits (e.g., hiding 5x-6x leverage when limited to 2x). When these hidden risks are exposed or the underlying private credit loans default, the sector will face severe write-downs, liquidity crises, and litigation. AVOID. The sector is masking systemic accounting fraud and holds subordinated risk that will eventually be wiped out. Regulatory inaction (SEC focusing elsewhere) allows these accounting practices to continue indefinitely, keeping dividend yields artificially high and attracting passive bid support.
BIZD AVOID
"I bought some Schwab. I bought some American Express, rode those up for a, you know, nice 30 plus% gain and then got out because these, you know, they were expensive." Large-cap financials experienced a massive run-up following the summer/fall sell-offs. Their valuations are now stretched, meaning the risk/reward ratio is no longer favorable for new capital deployment. NEUTRAL. The easy money has been made; it is prudent to take profits and step to the sidelines. Financials continue to rally if the Federal Reserve cuts rates more aggressively than expected, stimulating a new wave of consumer borrowing and market activity.
SCHW NEUTRAL
AXP NEUTRAL
"One of my best trades was Chevron... I just took some profits there. I had also done very well with Williams the pipeline company... technology is a very important component... making it possible to consume less energy." While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could keep oil near $100/barrel, technological efficiencies (like EV adoption and new industrial methodologies) are structurally reducing overall energy consumption. This caps the long-term upside for traditional energy and pipeline stocks. NEUTRAL. It is a strategic time to take profits on recent energy winners rather than initiating new long positions. A major escalation in the Middle East (e.g., closure of the Strait of Hormuz) causes a massive, prolonged oil supply shock, driving these equities significantly higher regardless of consumption efficiencies.
CVX NEUTRAL
WMB NEUTRAL
"My guess is they're going to kind of go sideways and then slowly back up, especially gold... it's pretty clear that the Asian markets are now the price setters for silver." Precious metals serve as a necessary long-term portfolio hedge against fiat currency debasement and US deficit spending. Strong, sustained physical demand from Asian markets provides a structural floor and future upside for both metals. LONG. They are a core portfolio holding for capital preservation, poised to resume their uptrend after a brief consolidation period. A persistently strong US dollar, a lack of expected Fed rate cuts, or a sudden drop in Asian commercial demand could suppress precious metal prices.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
"Annaly's dividends almost 13% on the common. The reason a bare steepener doesn't worry me with an agency read like Annalie is that steep is good... It has more spread between short-term and long-term." Agency REITs fund themselves in short-term repo markets and purchase long-term mortgage-backed securities. A steepening yield curve directly expands their net interest margin, securing their high dividend yield and providing robust fiat income to balance a portfolio holding non-yielding assets like gold. LONG. It is an ideal income-generating vehicle (surrogate for T-bills but with 3x-4x the yield) that actively benefits from the current macroeconomic interest rate environment. A flattening or inverted yield curve, or sudden liquidity spikes in short-term repo rates, could squeeze their net interest margins and force dividend cuts.
NLY LONG
14:00
Mar 12
Mar 12
USO
XLE
TLT
UUP
GLD
▾
"We now live in a structurally inflationary world... What you need to do is you move to a portfolio that's still 60% equities, but you forget the 40% bonds. You buy 20% precious metals and 20% energy because the risk is always that you get an energy price spike." In a structurally inflationary environment, bonds fail to protect portfolios during geopolitical or supply-driven shocks. Broad energy exposure acts as the only reliable shock absorber when inflation spikes and growth stalls (stagflation). LONG. Energy commodities and equities are mandatory portfolio hedges against the primary risk of the current macro regime: exogenous energy shocks. A severe global recession that causes massive demand destruction for oil, dragging prices down despite supply constraints.
USO LONG
XLE LONG
"I've been a massive US treasury bear for 5 years... Wars are fundamentally inflationary events." The bond market faces a lose-lose scenario. If Middle East conflicts escalate, supply chains break and inflation surges (bad for bonds). If regime change occurs and peace breaks out, a massive Middle Eastern rebuilding boom will drain global capital and spike real interest rates (also bad for bonds). SHORT. Long-duration US Treasuries have asymmetric downside risk due to structural inflation, massive deficit spending, and foreign central banks halting their purchases. A sudden, severe deflationary bust or a deep US recession that forces the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut rates and restart quantitative easing.
TLT SHORT
"I have been a US dollar bear and I acknowledge that right now the US dollar is going up of course, but I don't think this lasts." While geopolitical panic causes knee-jerk flights to the USD, the long-term costs of funding foreign conflicts without domestic political backing will ultimately erode confidence in the currency and exacerbate US fiscal deficits. SHORT. The structural trend for the US Dollar is lower as the US fiscal situation deteriorates and global trade slowly de-dollarizes. A global liquidity crisis where foreign entities are forced to aggressively bid for dollars to service USD-denominated debt (a "dollar milkshake" scenario).
UUP SHORT
"Central banks that had been net sellers of gold up until that point became net buyers of gold. And if you look at the past 3 years, central banks have bought 25% of the outstanding gold mine production every year." Gold is not an inflation hedge; it is a hedge against bad monetary policy and the weaponization of fiat reserves. Because the US froze Russian Treasury assets, non-Western central banks are structurally forced to accumulate gold to protect their sovereign wealth. LONG. A permanent shift in central bank reserve management provides a massive, price-insensitive floor and structural tailwind for gold. The US restores absolute global trust in the Treasury market, or real interest rates rise so high that holding zero-yield gold becomes prohibitively expensive for retail and institutional investors.
GLD LONG
"Fundamentals are good but momentum is no good. Investor positioning is no good and then valuations are more stretched in the US equity market than they are in any other market." The US market is priced for perfection. With extreme retail and institutional crowding, breaking momentum, and a disproportionate share of global market cap relative to GDP, the US indices offer a poor risk/reward ratio compared to international alternatives. AVOID. Capital should be rotated away from expensive, crowded US mega-caps. US exceptionalism continues indefinitely, driven by AI productivity miracles that justify current extreme valuation multiples.
SPY AVOID
QQQ AVOID
"The Chinese exchange rate is just stupidly, stupidly undervalued... China has now won the trade war... they no longer need to mobilize all their savings to push industry. They can now allow the stock market to go up... and allow the currency to come back up." China intentionally suppressed its currency and markets to funnel domestic savings into building a sanction-proof, de-westernized supply chain. Having achieved self-sufficiency, Beijing is now releasing the brakes, which will drive a massive mean-reversion rally in Chinese equities and Emerging Markets broadly. LONG. Chinese and broader EM equities offer the best global mix of cheap valuations, ignored positioning, improving momentum, and strong fundamentals. The Chinese government reverses course and implements new draconian crackdowns on private enterprise, or a hot war breaks out over Taiwan.
FXI LONG
KWEB LONG
EEM LONG
"Taiwan has about 10 days left of natural gas stored... How do you bridge the gap? You're going to burn a ton of coal. And so if you're a coal producer in Indonesia, South Africa, Australia, all of a sudden you're getting tons of orders from Europe, from Japan, from Korea, from Taiwan." If Middle Eastern oil and Qatari natural gas shipments are disrupted by conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, energy-starved Asian and European allies will be forced to aggressively bid up the price of coal to keep their power grids online. Global coal exporters will capture massive windfall profits. LONG. Coal equities act as a high-beta call option on global natural gas and oil supply chain disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz remains fully open, and a mild winter globally crushes demand for thermal coal.
AMR LONG
CEIX LONG
14:00
Mar 07
Mar 07
JPM
BLK
APO
KKR
BX
▾
"I don't like financials because they're still overvalued... JP Morgan at 2.3, 2.4 times book. That's still kind of expensive." Despite the potential for a crisis, bank stocks have not priced in the risk of contagion from the non-bank sector. The risk/reward profile is unfavorable at current high valuations (Price-to-Book) until a correction occurs. Avoid major financials until valuations reset or the Fed cuts rates significantly. A "soft landing" scenario where credit quality remains pristine would justify current bank multiples.
JPM AVOID
XLF AVOID
"This thing called private credit which everybody and anybody was trying to sell to retail investors last year... smells like 2008 due to the hidden leverage." Whalen notes BlackRock (BLK) marked a loan from "100 cents to zero in just 3 months" and Apollo (APO) got "stuffed" on UK insolvencies. The private credit and private equity sectors are facing a reckoning due to valuation lags and "fraud." Unlike banks, these non-bank entities (Alternative Asset Managers) do not have government backstops. As defaults rise and "fake" equity valuations (PIK structures) are exposed, these stocks face significant reputational and financial risk. Avoid or Short these asset managers as the "private credit bubble" deflates. The Fed could cut rates aggressively, bailing out the floating-rate borrowers in these private credit portfolios.
BLK AVOID
APO AVOID
KKR AVOID
BX AVOID
"I bought some more gold this week. I bought some physical silver... The Western exchanges in London and Chicago are losing it... they don't have enough metal to deliver." There is a structural dislocation between Western paper markets (COMEX) and Asian physical markets (Shanghai). The shortage of physical metal in Asia will force prices higher, rendering paper shorts in the West untenable. Long precious metals as a hedge against financial instability and physical supply shortages. A strengthening US Dollar or high real interest rates could temporarily suppress metal prices.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
"I bought some more income the other day. You know, I I've been growing my position in Annaly... things like that that throw off cash flow and don't have very high betas." In a volatile, "risk-off" environment, investors should seek low-beta assets that generate high current income. Mortgage REITs (mREITs) like Annaly provide cash flow while the investor waits for the broader market correction to settle. Long for income and defensive positioning. Interest rate volatility or a spike in mortgage spreads could negatively impact book value.
NLY LONG
"I think the Fed's got to cut rates ultimately... when they pause long enough, they're going to meet and they're going to cut interest rates." The catalyst for rate cuts will be financial contagion (bank losses on private credit) or geopolitical stress. Rate cuts will drive Treasury yields down and bond prices up. Long duration (Treasuries) to capture capital appreciation from the inevitable Fed pivot. Inflation re-accelerating could force the Fed to keep rates "higher for longer."
TLT LONG
IEF LONG
14:01
Feb 28
Feb 28
OWL
APO
ARES
SYF
COF
▾
Whalen states that the world of private credit is "unraveling" because retail investors are fleeing these illiquid investments. He explicitly notes that companies like Blue Owl (OWL) "have been selling off dramatically" and that putting retail investors into these trades was "always wrong." Retail investors demand liquidity. When they realize they cannot exit private credit positions easily, they panic. This forces a migration out of private credit/equity vehicles. Even though firms like Apollo (APO) and Ares (ARES) have insurance arms for funding, the broader sentiment and retail exodus create significant headwinds for their stock prices. SHORT/AVOID these asset managers as the "liquidity premium" returns to the market. These firms collect management fees regardless of performance, which provides a floor to their revenue; institutional capital may step in where retail flees.
OWL SHORT
APO SHORT
ARES SHORT
Whalen warns that consumer credit is starting to deteriorate, specifically in the subprime stack. He advises to "Watch Synchrony, watch Capital One, watch Citigroup because all of them have relatively subprime portfolios and they will turn first." These banks are the leading indicators for consumer health. If their loss rates and delinquencies rise in Q1 (as Whalen anticipates), it signals a broader credit event. Unlike JPMorgan or Bank of America, these specific tickers have higher exposure to lower-credit-score borrowers. WATCH (with a bias toward SHORT if delinquency data confirms the thesis). The US consumer remains resilient longer than expected; employment data remains strong, keeping default rates low.
SYF WATCH
COF WATCH
C WATCH
Whalen observes that despite Nvidia (NVDA) beating estimates and having a "fine quarter," the stock sold off. He notes that "people don't care anymore" about the beat and that big tech companies like Microsoft (MSFT) have "given up a lot of the gains from last year." This price action signals "investor fatigue" and a valuation reset. The narrative that drove these stocks in the previous year is breaking. When good news results in selling, the market structure has shifted from accumulation to distribution. SHORT/AVOID as the sector continues to give back gains from the previous year. A new AI narrative or product breakthrough could reignite the "fear of missing out" (FOMO) trade.
NVDA SHORT
MSFT SHORT
Whalen states, "Metals are a long-term buy." He is increasing exposure to gold and silver and owns vehicles that invest in junior miners. He notes a "secular change" where pricing power is moving to Shanghai and India because Western markets (Comex) lack deliverable metal. The disconnect between paper markets (Comex) and physical demand in Asia is widening. As central banks and Asian markets accumulate physical metal, the floor price rises. Junior miners (represented here by GDXJ proxy) are undervalued because there is a dearth of productive capacity and it takes years to bring new mines online. LONG physical metals and miners. A strong US Dollar or high real interest rates typically act as headwinds for non-yielding assets like gold.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
GDXJ LONG
Whalen highlights that Rocket Companies (RKT) had "really good, great volumes" and a very good earnings report. He also mentions Annaly (NLY) as a "favorite portfolio holding" that has done very well. Despite high rates, these companies are managing to maintain volumes or leverage their servicing assets effectively. Lenders are getting aggressive to keep servicing assets, which supports the business models of market leaders like Rocket and Annaly. LONG based on strong earnings execution in a difficult environment. If the 10-year Treasury yield spikes back above 4.1%, mortgage activity could freeze entirely, hurting volumes.
RKT LONG
NLY LONG
15:00
Feb 26
Feb 26
GLD
GDX
AGI
XLE
XOP
▾
Gold has rallied significantly, but the buying is driven almost entirely by non-G7 central banks (China, India). US retail investors and generalist funds have not yet participated meaningfully (ETF shares outstanding are down/flat). Bull markets typically end with public mania. The absence of Western retail participation suggests we are still in the middle innings. Furthermore, the inevitable "Yield Curve Control" (to cap rising bond yields) acts as rocket fuel for hard assets because it requires unlimited money printing. LONG. Fleckenstein explicitly names Alamos Gold (AGI) as a holding he likes, alongside the general miner thesis. A deflationary bust or a temporary resolution to geopolitical tensions could cause a pullback.
GLD LONG
GDX LONG
AGI LONG
The Energy sector is "bombed out" and acting well technically despite oil price volatility. Fleckenstein notes a rotation from "Artificial Imagination" (Tech) to "Old Economy" stocks. As the "Passive Bid" supports the headline indices, capital rotating *out* of broken tech names needs a home. Energy offers value and protection against the inflation/debasement thesis. It is the only sector where Fleckenstein is currently looking to deploy his cash reserves. LONG (Accumulate). He is looking to buy energy stocks specifically to reduce his high cash position. Global recession crushing oil demand; peace in the Middle East reducing the geopolitical premium.
XLE LONG
XOP LONG
Fleckenstein states he is "not comfortable" owning Silver at current levels compared to Gold. He notes the "Silver crowd" gets carried away and the volatility is harder to manage. While Silver often tracks Gold, Fleckenstein views Gold as the primary monetary asset ("no one else's liability") and Silver as a more speculative, volatile play that has run up too fast for his comfort relative to its history. AVOID. He prefers the stability of Gold over the "wild" nature of Silver right now. Silver often outperforms Gold in the late stages of a precious metals bull market (the "catch-up" trade).
SLV AVOID
The "Passive Bid" (automatic 401k flows into market-cap-weighted indices) creates a floor under the market. Even as individual AI/Software companies "blow up," the indices remain near all-time highs. Traditional short-selling logic is broken. In the past, bad fundamentals led to selling that fed on itself. Now, passive flows absorb the selling, preventing price discovery. Shorting the indices or high-valuation tech based on fundamentals is a "widow-maker" trade in this structure. WATCH / NEUTRAL. Fleckenstein explicitly states he closed his short fund because this dynamic makes managing risk impossible. Do not short the indices despite the "AI bubble" thesis. If unemployment spikes, passive 401k inflows would stop, potentially removing the floor and causing a rapid crash.
SPY WATCH
QQQ WATCH
Fleckenstein is maintaining a 30-40% cash position, which is historically high for him. The macro environment is "confused" due to the tug-of-war between deteriorating fundamentals (AI ROI issues, debt) and the supportive Passive Bid. High cash reserves provide optionality to buy distressed assets (specifically Energy or Gold miners) during volatility. LONG. Stay defensive until specific idiosyncratic opportunities (like Energy) present themselves. Cash drag during a melt-up; inflation eroding purchasing power (though short-term yields currently offset this).
BIL LONG
SGOV LONG
14:00
Feb 21
Feb 21
OWL
APO
ARES
KKR
TPG
▾
Whalen states "The Wharf Rats Are Coming Out." He notes Blue Owl (OWL) sold loans at 99.7% of value and restricted redemptions. He explicitly mentions Apollo (APO), Aries (ARES), KKR, and TPG "took lumps" and that the sector is facing liquidity problems. Whalen argues that private markets are inferior to public markets due to lack of price discovery and liquidity. He predicts a "ticking time bomb" where retail investors will lose money and regulators (insurance commissioners) will eventually have to crack down on the "fox in the hen house" dynamic where PE firms own insurers. SHORT or AVOID these asset managers as liquidity crunches and regulatory scrutiny increase. Regulators remain passive (as Whalen notes Paul Atkins/SEC are ignoring it); these firms successfully offload bad assets to annuity holders without consequence.
OWL SHORT
APO SHORT
ARES SHORT
KKR SHORT
TPG SHORT
Whalen says, "I'm still long. I'm adding to my positions." He notes a "squeeze" in silver, citing that producers are short and scrambling for metal, and Chinese markets (Shanghai) are driving price discovery higher than the US Comex. The physical shortage of deliverable silver, combined with industrial (commercial) demand, creates a floor for the price. Unlike gold (monetary), silver is driven by commercial necessity, making the short squeeze more acute. LONG Silver via ETFs or physical exposure. High volatility (20-30% swings) inherent to commodities; potential for margin hikes on exchanges to dampen speculation.
SLV LONG
Whalen highlights a speech by Fed Governor Mickey Bowman suggesting a rollback of punitive Basel III capital rules regarding mortgage servicing assets. If these rules are relaxed, the cost of holding mortgage assets decreases. Whalen explicitly states the "big beneficiaries... are going to be community banks and regional banks" (KRE). He also notes that non-banks like Rocket (RKT) and PennyMac (PFSI) remain operationally superior and efficient in this space. LONG Regional Banks and efficient Non-Bank Mortgage Servicers. The rule change is only a proposal and may not be enacted; the housing market freezes further if rates rise.
KRE LONG
RKT LONG
PFSI LONG
Whalen states he is waiting until May 1st to price his own mortgage because he believes "rates are going to come lower." He advises watching the 10-Year Treasury; if it stays at 4.0-4.1% or lower, the trend is down. Bond prices move inversely to yields. If Whalen is correct that yields on the 10-Year are heading lower, long-duration Treasury ETFs will appreciate in value. LONG Duration Treasuries. Inflation data surprises to the upside, forcing yields back up; heavy Treasury issuance supply overwhelms demand.
TLT LONG
IEF LONG
Whalen discusses political pressure from both the Trump camp (Vance) and Democrats to restrict institutional investors from buying single-family homes. While Whalen believes the narrative is factually wrong (institutions own a small %), he admits the "politics of this are very clear" and expects legislation this year. This creates headline risk for Single-Family Rental (SFR) REITs. WATCH or AVOID SFR REITs due to legislative headwinds. The legislation ends up being toothless (which Whalen suspects), meaning the dip would be a buying opportunity.
INVH WATCH
AMH WATCH
15:13
Feb 19
Feb 19
TLT
ZROZ
KRE
CBRE
XLI
▾
"Trueflation... it's at I think 0.7%ish right now... We're in a recession that won't be acknowledged for years." The Federal Reserve is currently keeping rates high based on lagging data, while real-time inflation is near zero and the labor market is deteriorating. Eventually, the Fed will be forced to aggressively cut rates to align with the economic reality of 0.7% inflation and a recession, which will drive bond yields down and prices up. Long duration US Treasuries to capture capital appreciation from inevitable rate cuts. The Fed remains "higher for longer" despite the data, causing short-term pain for bondholders.
TLT LONG
ZROZ LONG
"Office delinquencies just hit the highest level on record and distressed office sales are clearly putting some regional banks under pressure in their loan books." Record office vacancies and delinquencies directly impair the balance sheets of regional banks (who hold the loans) and commercial real estate services firms (like CBRE, which she notes "crashed" on news of AI reducing need for junior staff/office space). As distress cycles through the system, equity values in this sector face further compression. Short Regional Banks and Commercial Real Estate Services. A massive Fed pivot or government bailout of the CRE sector.
KRE SHORT
CBRE SHORT
"There were 5,000 jobs created in manufacturing. We can talk about the good news there if you want because there actually is a restocking cycle going on." While the broader service/consumer economy is weakening, the manufacturing sector is entering a specific inventory restocking phase. This divergence creates a pocket of strength in industrial stocks even amidst a general recession. Long Industrials/Manufacturing to play the restocking cycle. The broader recession eventually drags down manufacturing demand, ending the restocking cycle prematurely.
XLI LONG
VIS LONG
"The fastest area of adoption for buy now pay later... is medical and dental bills... Delinquencies for... credit card and auto loans remained above pre-pandemic levels." Consumers are using high-interest or installment debt (BNPL) to pay for basic survival needs (utilities, medical), not just discretionary items. With delinquencies already rising to record levels, lenders exposed to subprime or unsecured consumer credit face a wave of defaults. Short Consumer Lenders and BNPL providers. Wage growth accelerates or government stimulus provides a lifeline to the consumer.
AFRM SHORT
COF SHORT
SYF SHORT
15:00
Feb 17
Feb 17
SLV
GDX
CPB
UNP
XLE
▾
He explicitly stated he sold/trimmed Silver positions at $100 and Gold recently, expecting a consolidation period of 3-4 months. He targets re-entry at Silver $50-60 and Gold in the low $4,000s. While long-term bullish on hard assets due to fiscal dominance, he views the recent parabolic move as unsustainable in the short term. The trade is to wait for the specific pullback levels to re-deploy capital. WATCH for the pullback to buy (do not chase current highs). Prices continue to go parabolic without a pullback, leaving the investor on the sidelines.
SLV WATCH
GDX WATCH
GLD WATCH
He names Gildan (t-shirts), Campbell Soup (6.5% dividend), and Union Pacific (merger synergies) as recent buys. As the "Mag 7" trade unwinds, capital is rotating into "bread and butter" companies with high free cash flow, dividends, and industrial utility. These stocks offer defensive characteristics in a volatile "Year 2" election cycle. LONG defensive value and industrial stocks. A "melt-up" in growth stocks would cause these defensive names to underperform significantly.
CPB LONG
UNP LONG
GIL LONG
He states they own oil and oil service stocks because they are "underowned" (2.3% of S&P vs historical 30%) and pay high dividends. He believes global oil supply is lower than the IEA estimates and that prices will be much higher in 2-3 years. The sector provides a hedge against the structural inflation he predicts. LONG Energy producers and services. Global recession crushing energy demand; geopolitical resolution increasing supply.
XLE LONG
OIH LONG
He says "you really can't own the long paper" (10-30 year bonds) because inflation will average 4-5% over the next decade. With US debt at $40T, the government must inflate away the debt (financial repression). Holding long-duration bonds with fixed yields below the real inflation rate guarantees a loss of purchasing power. AVOID long-duration Treasuries. A deflationary crash would make long bonds the best performing asset.
TLT AVOID
Oakley states his firm keeps about 50% of assets in short-term Treasuries and recently moved duration out to three years to "lock" rates. He anticipates a mid-year market decline typical of the second year of a presidential term. Moving to 3-year duration secures yield before potential rate cuts while avoiding the inflation risk inherent in 10-30 year bonds. LONG short-to-intermediate duration Treasuries as a cash proxy and volatility buffer. Inflation spikes significantly above the locked yield; missed upside if equities rally continuously.
SHY LONG
IEI LONG
He explicitly says "we don't own Nvidia" and notes that the "Big 10 stocks" are not doing well relative to the broader market. He views the valuations of AI and tech high-flyers as "too expensive" and disconnected from the reality of their ability to generate profits matching those valuations. He compares this to the 2000-2002 tech unwind. AVOID overvalued large-cap tech. AI productivity gains justify the valuations; momentum continues despite fundamentals.
NVDA AVOID
QQQ AVOID
He criticizes Private Equity for paying multiples higher than public markets for small companies and using excessive leverage. He argues that the illiquidity of PE is masking losses ("they can't sell it") and that secondary funds are a "gimmick." When the credit cycle turns, the leverage in these portfolios will cause significant impairments. AVOID Private Equity and Private Credit exposure. Private markets continue to attract capital flows, keeping valuations artificially supported.
PSP AVOID
14:01
Feb 14
Feb 14
AMD
NLY
JPM
PFSI
BTC
▾
"I have a position in AMD... That stock's now down at the 52-week low. I have been slowly buying more because I do like the company." While the broader AI narrative is cracking, Whalen distinguishes between "hype" and fundamental utility. He views AMD's low-power chip capabilities as a long-term value play that has been unfairly punished ("painted with the roller") alongside the broader tech sell-off. Contrarian accumulation at 52-week lows. Continued sector-wide rotation out of semiconductors; failure of AI profitability to materialize.
AMD LONG
"It's not a stock I own for capital appreciation. It's a stock I own for income... That stock's doing very well." In a market rotating toward safety and income, Annaly (investing in government-guaranteed MBS) offers high yield (low-to-mid teens) with lower credit risk than private credit. It acts as a bond-proxy defensive hold. Pure income/safety play. Interest rate volatility; spread widening between Treasuries and MBS.
NLY LONG
"Is there a case to be made to go out and buy JP Morgan at 2 and a half times book? I think there is because that bank is so much more efficient than everybody else." Although JPM has underperformed small-cap banks recently (ranking 87th in returns), its operational efficiency and "fortress" balance sheet make it the default safety play if credit conditions worsen in 2026. Quality/Safety accumulation despite high valuation. Valuation compression (trading at 2.5x book is historically expensive); continued rotation into smaller regional banks.
JPM LONG
"When I saw Pennymac announce this acquisition [of Cenlar], I kind of rocked back in my chair... I think they could lose money on to be frank." Whalen previously viewed PFSI as cheap, but the acquisition of Cenlar introduces "recapture risk" (clients leaving because PennyMac competes with them). This fundamental strategic error turns a value stock into a potential value trap. Avoid due to acquisition integration and client retention risks. The acquisition could arguably provide scale if successfully integrated, proving the skepticism wrong.
PFSI AVOID
"Crypto is suffering because the AI narrative has broken down... I think it could go lower because the market for Bitcoin is so weak." Whalen links Crypto and AI as "aspirational" narratives driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals. As the AI hype cycle breaks, the bid for Crypto evaporates. The market lacks depth ("thin"), meaning selling pressure causes outsized drops. Sell/Short on narrative collapse and liquidity drying up. A resurgence in speculative liquidity or central bank intervention boosting risk assets.
BTC SHORT
"I'm still long gold. I haven't really changed any of my silver positions... The ETFs I own for silver exposure are still up 40 50%." In a "manic" market where investors are fleeing momentum tech stocks, precious metals serve as the ultimate safety and inflation hedge. Whalen is holding through volatility. Hold/Long for safety and inflation protection. Deflationary crash where all assets, including metals, are sold for cash liquidity.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
"Apollo sold that mortgage portfolio... to an affiliate called Athene... it's a way for them to kind of mask some of the volatility that's flowing through the commercial mortgage sector." The transaction is financial engineering designed to move troubled assets from a public REIT (ARI) to an insurance balance sheet (Athene) that doesn't mark-to-market. This signals underlying distress in the commercial mortgage book that the REIT wants to offload. Avoid the commercial mortgage REIT sector. If rates drop significantly, commercial real estate values could stabilize, making the exit look premature.
ARI AVOID
15:01
Feb 10
Feb 10
SLV
CPER
NVDA
AMD
FCX
▾
Pies argues that the ideal portfolio hedge has shifted from bonds to commodities. He states, "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted." AI threatens intellectual property and code (Software), but it cannot replicate physical atoms. Furthermore, the data center buildout requires massive amounts of energy (Oil/Gas) and industrial metals (Copper). Simultaneously, the "debasement regime" (high deficits) supports precious metals (Gold/Silver). LONG. Commodities act as both an inflation hedge and a "technological disruption" hedge. A sharp economic recession would crush demand for industrial commodities (Oil/Copper) regardless of the AI thesis.
SLV LONG
CPER LONG
FCX LONG
GLD LONG
USO LONG
Pies notes that Hyperscalers are ramping capex to nearly $700 billion in 2026. He states, "Hardware semis needs to be bid... compute is the thing that everyone is scrambling for." While software (SaaS) faces an existential threat from AI coding capabilities, the physical infrastructure required to run that AI (chips/hardware) is seeing unprecedented demand. The massive capex spend must flow directly into the revenues of semiconductor and hardware manufacturers. LONG. The "industrial revolution" of AI requires physical compute, making hardware the primary beneficiary of the capex boom. If hyperscalers suddenly cut capex due to lack of ROI, the hardware sector would collapse.
NVDA LONG
AMD LONG
SMH LONG
Pies criticizes the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, stating it "hurts independence" and that investors should expect to "see term premium expand." "Term premium" is the extra yield investors demand for holding long-term bonds. If the market perceives the Fed as political or less committed to fighting inflation, long-end rates will rise (prices fall) even if the Fed cuts short-term rates. This causes the yield curve to steepen, hurting long-duration treasuries. SHORT/AVOID. The macro backdrop of 6% deficits combined with a politically pressured Fed is toxic for long-duration government paper. A sudden financial crisis or banking collapse would trigger a "flight to safety," causing yields to plummet and TLT to spike.
TLT SHORT
Pies notes that the software industry has derated significantly (from 15x sales to 10x sales) and lost market cap share, stating, "Barriers to entry are potentially leveled." While he believes the immediate "froth" has been removed and valuations have normalized, the long-term risk is "existential." If AI reduces the moat of SaaS companies, margins could collapse. However, since the sector has already corrected while the S&P is at highs, the immediate downside may be limited. NEUTRAL. The easy money in SaaS is gone; the sector is now a "show me" story regarding AI survival. If AI agents replace enterprise software seats faster than expected, a second leg down in valuation could occur.
IGV NEUTRAL
14:00
Feb 07
Feb 07
PFSI
MS
STLA
GLD
NLY
▾
PennyMac (PFSI) missed earnings badly and the stock dropped from ~$150 to ~$90 because political announcements distorted the bond market, breaking their hedging models. The market reaction is an emotional over-correction to a one-time hedging dislocation caused by DC noise. Whalen views the underlying business as a "leader" and the sell-off as a buying opportunity for a cheap asset. LONG (Value/Contrarian Play). Continued volatility in the Treasury market could lead to further hedging losses; political interference in housing policy.
PFSI LONG
Whalen notes that Morgan Stanley paid 45% to raise cash in the repo market in Q3, highlighting stress in the plumbing of the financial system. This is a specific "canary in the coal mine" for liquidity risks. While not an explicit short call, it suggests deep caution regarding bank balance sheets and the potential for a "repo blow up" similar to 2018. WATCH (Liquidity Risk Indicator). Systemic liquidity freeze; Fed policy error regarding QT (Quantitative Tightening).
MS WATCH
Stellantis (STLA) was "crushed" when they missed earnings. Whalen uses this as an example of the market "weeding out winners and losers." In a preservation environment, companies that miss execution targets are punished severely and do not recover quickly. AVOID. Unexpected turnaround in auto demand or successful restructuring.
STLA AVOID
Whalen admits metals have traded off but says, "I'm sitting with both my gold and silver positions... I'm going to, if anything, add to it." He views the current price drop as a correction within a secular bull market driven by fiscal deficits and inflation. He treats the dip as a liquidity event (crypto traders moving money) rather than a fundamental break. LONG (Accumulation). Higher real rates strengthening the dollar; Silver's industrial demand falling during an economic slowdown.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
Whalen states the market is moving from "speculation" to "preservation" and "cash flow." He explicitly names Annaly (NLY) as a holding for income and praises Walmart (WMT) for its defensive stability. As high-beta tech and crypto trades unwind ("run out of runway"), capital will rotate into defensive sectors (Consumer Staples) and high-yield instruments (Mortgage REITs) that provide security and income. LONG (Defensive Rotation). Rising long-term interest rates could hurt NLY's book value; consumer spending slowdown could impact WMT.
NLY LONG
WMT LONG
While noting the broader AI trade is cooling, Whalen explicitly states, "I own AMD... it has traded off a lot. I'm probably going to buy more now at these levels." He differentiates between the "froth" of the general sector and specific high-quality assets that have become oversold. He views the pullback in AMD as an entry point rather than a signal to exit. LONG (Buy the Dip). Further multiple compression in the semiconductor sector; slowing enterprise AI spend.
AMD LONG
15:00
Feb 05
Feb 05
NVDA
EEM
XHB
GDX
GDXJ
▾
Noble explicitly states, "I think Nvidia is a short. I think Tesla is a short." He argues the "wheels are coming off the AI trade." The AI narrative has driven valuations to unsustainable levels based on "efficiency revolution" promises that aren't materializing in corporate ROI. As the hype fades, multiple compression will be severe. Short the poster children of the AI/Speculation bubble. Continued mania/momentum or a new breakthrough in AI utility that justifies the CapEx.
NVDA SHORT
TSLA SHORT
"Put some money abroad... I happen to like Brazil. I happen to like China." US assets are expensive and crowded. Emerging Markets have been in a bear market, offer better valuations, and in China's case, are beginning to stimulate. A weaker dollar (due to debasement) acts as a tailwind for EM assets. Long Emerging Markets (China/Brazil focus). Geopolitical escalation or a strengthening US Dollar.
EEM LONG
FXI LONG
EWZ LONG
"I think housing is dead... I would stay away from housing stocks." Housing is interest-rate sensitive. Since Noble believes the Fed cannot control the long end of the curve and yields are heading to 5%+, mortgage rates will remain prohibitively high, freezing transaction volume. Avoid Homebuilders. A collapse in yields or new government subsidies for homebuyers.
XHB AVOID
ITB AVOID
Noble states, "You don't have to believe in [hyperinflation] to want to own gold miners... I think these stocks can double in 12 months." He notes miners are realizing prices significantly lower than the current spot price, leading to massive margin expansion. While the metal (GLD) protects purchasing power, the miners (GDX) offer operating leverage. As gold prices rise, mining costs remain relatively fixed in the short term, causing free cash flow to explode disproportionately to the metal's move. Long miners as a high-beta play on currency debasement. A sudden deflationary crash or aggressive Fed tightening that successfully crushes inflation expectations.
GDX LONG
GDXJ LONG
GLD LONG
Noble says, "I love energy... particularly like the oil service companies." He explicitly names Schlumberger (SLB), Tidewater (TDW), and Valaris (VAL). The sector is under-owned (3% of S&P). Global depletion rates (~5% annually) necessitate constant drilling activity regardless of short-term oil price fluctuations. Service companies have pricing power due to equipment shortages. Long Oil Services for a valuation mean reversion and activity super-cycle. A deep global recession crushing energy demand.
OIH LONG
SLB LONG
TDW LONG
VAL LONG
Noble references "SASmageddon" and specifically points out ServiceNow (NOW) trading at "73 times earnings" despite a broken chart. SaaS companies face a double whammy: AI potentially displacing their seat-based business models, and extreme valuations contracting as growth decelerates. Short high-multiple Software/SaaS. Lower interest rates temporarily boosting long-duration growth assets.
NOW SHORT
IGV SHORT
"Go to the RSP, which is the equal weighted... that's going to outperform." The S&P 500 (SPY) is inextricably linked to the "Mag 7" and the AI trade. Since Noble is bearish on Tech/AI, the Equal Weight index avoids that concentration risk while capturing the rotation into "real economy" sectors (Energy, Industrials). Long Equal Weight S&P as a relative value trade against the Cap-Weighted S&P. Tech continues to lead the market higher, causing RSP to underperform.
RSP LONG
"Run don't walk away from a bond allocation... yields north of 5%." The US fiscal situation (debt spiral) means the supply of bonds will overwhelm demand. Investors will demand a higher term premium (higher yields) to hold long-duration paper, which mathematically crushes bond prices (TLT). Avoid or Short Long-Duration Treasuries. A deflationary bust or financial crisis that triggers a "flight to safety" into Treasuries.
TLT AVOID
"I recommended Southwest Airlines... I still like that stock a lot." This is a specific idiosyncratic "stock picker" idea based on fundamental turnaround potential, separate from the macro themes. Long Southwest Airlines. Operational failures or rising fuel costs (though he is bullish on oil, airlines can hedge).
LUV LONG
15:00
Feb 03
Feb 03
TLT
ZROZ
SLV
PPLT
FXY
▾
Gurevich states, "I think zero interest rates are not off the table... I'm seeing the path to deterioration of the labor market." He adds, "When the job growth is negative, 10-year yield should be much lower... who's selling them at 1% yield?" The market is currently pricing in a "soft landing" or "higher for longer" rate environment. Gurevich believes the labor market is silently rotting. If unemployment spikes, the Fed will be forced to cut rates aggressively (potentially back to zero). Bond prices and yields move inversely; if yields fall to 1% or 0%, long-duration Treasury bonds (TLT/ZROZ) will experience massive capital appreciation due to their high convexity. LONG US Treasuries (specifically long duration) to capture the move if rates collapse. Fiscal dominance (government printing money to stimulate) could reignite inflation, keeping yields high.
TLT LONG
ZROZ LONG
Regarding precious metals, he notes, "Gold usually leads and Silver starts rallying after gold... I think platinum comes next." Gurevich uses historical pattern recognition rather than fundamental fair value for metals. Gold has already broken out. Silver has started its move. Platinum has historically lagged both but eventually "catches fire" to close the gap. Buying the laggards (Silver and specifically Platinum) offers a catch-up trade opportunity. LONG Silver and Platinum as a rotation play within the precious metals complex. Metals can be volatile and driven by speculation; if the "liquidity tide" goes out, all assets including metals could correct.
SLV LONG
PPLT LONG
He states, "Japan is becoming really interesting... If they raise interest rates in Japan, then yen will rally." This is an asymmetric setup. If the US economy breaks (as per his deflation thesis), US rates fall, narrowing the spread with Japan, causing the Yen to rally. Conversely, if Japan normalizes policy and raises rates, the Yen also rallies. The Yen is at historically cheap levels, providing a favorable entry point for a mean reversion. LONG Japanese Yen (via ETF proxy FXY) as a play on both US deflation and Japanese policy normalization. The Bank of Japan maintains loose policy indefinitely while US rates stay high (carry trade continues to punish the Yen).
FXY LONG
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