Gurevich: Zero Interest Rates Not Off the Table, Why Deflation Is Coming, & the Next Perfect Trade
Summary
- Zero Interest Rate Thesis: Gurevich argues that a return to zero interest rates is "not off the table." He sees a disproportionate probability of this scenario compared to what the market is pricing, driven by a hidden deterioration in the US labor market.
- Deflationary Pressure: Despite mixed economic data, the underlying trend is deflationary. He believes the labor market is weakening in ways not yet fully visible in headline numbers. If job growth turns negative, yields should collapse.
- The "One Chart" Update: He acknowledges his famous 40-year bond bull market chart broke to the upside (yields rose), signaling a regime change, but believes the current move is an overcorrection.
- Precious Metals Rotation: He identifies a sequential rotation in metals: Gold leads, Silver follows, and Platinum is the laggard that "catches fire" last.
- AI & Energy: Long-term, he predicts computational demand from AI will overwhelm all current energy supplies (including fossil fuels), creating a massive energy bottleneck, though he admits the specific trade vehicle for this is not yet clear.
Trade Ideas
Gurevich states, "I think zero interest rates are not off the table... I'm seeing the path to deterioration of the labor market." He adds, "When the job growth is negative, 10-year yield should be much lower... who's selling them at 1% yield?" The market is currently pricing in a "soft landing" or "higher for longer" rate environment. Gurevich believes the labor market is silently rotting. If unemployment spikes, the Fed will be forced to cut rates aggressively (potentially back to zero). Bond prices and yields move inversely; if yields fall to 1% or 0%, long-duration Treasury bonds (TLT/ZROZ) will experience massive capital appreciation due to their high convexity. LONG US Treasuries (specifically long duration) to capture the move if rates collapse. Fiscal dominance (government printing money to stimulate) could reignite inflation, keeping yields high.
Alex Gurevich
CIO of Honte Investments
Regarding precious metals, he notes, "Gold usually leads and Silver starts rallying after gold... I think platinum comes next." Gurevich uses historical pattern recognition rather than fundamental fair value for metals. Gold has already broken out. Silver has started its move. Platinum has historically lagged both but eventually "catches fire" to close the gap. Buying the laggards (Silver and specifically Platinum) offers a catch-up trade opportunity. LONG Silver and Platinum as a rotation play within the precious metals complex. Metals can be volatile and driven by speculation; if the "liquidity tide" goes out, all assets including metals could correct.
Alex Gurevich
CIO of Honte Investments
He states, "Japan is becoming really interesting... If they raise interest rates in Japan, then yen will rally." This is an asymmetric setup. If the US economy breaks (as per his deflation thesis), US rates fall, narrowing the spread with Japan, causing the Yen to rally. Conversely, if Japan normalizes policy and raises rates, the Yen also rallies. The Yen is at historically cheap levels, providing a favorable entry point for a mean reversion. LONG Japanese Yen (via ETF proxy FXY) as a play on both US deflation and Japanese policy normalization. The Bank of Japan maintains loose policy indefinitely while US rates stay high (carry trade continues to punish the Yen).
Up Next
This Julia LaRoche Show video, published February 03, 2026, features Alex Gurevich discussing TLT, ZROZ, SLV, PPLT, FXY. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Alex Gurevich · Tickers: TLT, ZROZ, SLV, PPLT, FXY