Henrik Zeberg: "We Have Not Seen The Top Yet" — Why The Nasdaq Could Rally 30%

Summary

• Despite clear structural deterioration in the labor market (argues real unemployment is ~5.4% vs. reported 4.3%), the economy has not rolled over to the degree that would signal an imminent recession or major market top.
• Believes current non-farm payroll numbers are volatile and potentially manipulated, with revisions likely to show much weaker job creation, similar to patterns seen in 2025.
• Key thesis: The market has not seen its top. Expects a final "blow-off" rally in the Nasdaq, drawing parallels to the 45% surge in 2000 and 25% surge in mid-2007 that preceded crashes. Predicts a minimum 30% rally from current levels, targeting above 30,000.
• Current 10% pullback is a "buy the dip" opportunity, supported by a rare bullish engulfing candle pattern and lack of sequencing typical of major tops (e.g., improving market breadth, strong risk-on indicators).
• Private credit is identified as the modern equivalent of subprime mortgages—an opaque, systemically risky accelerant that could turn an economic downturn into a financial crisis worse than 2008, as exposures are unknown.
• Criticizes the Fed for repeating 2007's mistake: being reactive (fixated on rear-view inflation) instead of proactive to leading economic slowdown signals, setting up for a late, panicked policy response.
• The Zeberg Business Cycle Model's coincident indicators have flatlined but have not yet crossed into recession territory, suggesting the slowdown can extend for another 1-3 months before a potential waterfall moment.
• On gold and silver: Long-term bullish but expects a significant corrective pullback (50%+ for gold, 60-70% for silver) from recent highs, analogous to the decline seen between March and September 2008.