#375
Alpha Score 53.2
Jay Pelosky
Founder, TPW Advisory
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Mar 24
$72.27
+7.2%
Speaker explicitly names COPX (copper miners ETF) as "really attractive," noting it is down 30-40% in a pullback. EVs use a ton of copper and are poised for increased adoption, especially post-Iran conflict. Exploration for new mineral sources is limited, constraining future supply. Direct bullish call on the asset. Copper is a critical physical input for the AI, defense, and renewable energy build-out, creating structural demand. A major global recession derailing commodity demand and the capex cycle.
Speaker explicitly names COPX (copper miners ETF) as "really attractive," noting it is down 30-40% in a pullback. EVs use a ton of copper and are poised for increased adoption, especially post-Iran conflict. Exploration for new mineral sources is limited, constraining future supply. Direct bullish call on the asset. Copper is a critical physical input for the AI, defense, and renewable energy build-out, creating structural demand. A major global recession derailing commodity demand and the capex cycle.
Other
Long
Mar 24
$56.41
+14.6%
Speaker explicitly states, "we're bullish EM," and that the "baton of global equity leadership is being passed... to the emerging markets." EM trades at a discount to the US, is forecast for higher earnings growth, and is directly benefiting from regional integration and spending on renewables/defense/AI. The "EMification of America" theme accelerates capital rotation toward genuine EM. Clear, overarching bullish call on the asset class as the primary beneficiary of a secular leadership change. A systemic financial crisis or a major US market crash that triggers broad risk-off sentiment.
Speaker explicitly states, "we're bullish EM," and that the "baton of global equity leadership is being passed... to the emerging markets." EM trades at a discount to the US, is forecast for higher earnings growth, and is directly benefiting from regional integration and spending on renewables/defense/AI. The "EMification of America" theme accelerates capital rotation toward genuine EM. Clear, overarching bullish call on the asset class as the primary beneficiary of a secular leadership change. A systemic financial crisis or a major US market crash that triggers broad risk-off sentiment.
Macro
Long
Mar 24
$390.37
+46.2%
Speaker names SMH (semiconductor ETF) as a focus within the AI theme: "we're focused on the semiconductor space. So, things like SMH." Semiconductors are the "pick and shovel" for AI development and build-out, which is a core pillar of the global growth long cycle. Explicit mention as a way to gain exposure to a critical enabling technology for the dominant investment theme. A sharp downturn in the semiconductor cycle or excessive capex leading to oversupply.
Speaker names SMH (semiconductor ETF) as a focus within the AI theme: "we're focused on the semiconductor space. So, things like SMH." Semiconductors are the "pick and shovel" for AI development and build-out, which is a core pillar of the global growth long cycle. Explicit mention as a way to gain exposure to a critical enabling technology for the dominant investment theme. A sharp downturn in the semiconductor cycle or excessive capex leading to oversupply.
AI/Semi
Long
May 26
$36.10
-4.0%
China is one of the last countries that will have to raise interest rates because it is finally defeating deflation. This is very bullish for Chinese corporate profits and domestic investor asset allocation. Domestic investors are shifting from property and low-yield savings into equities. We are very long the A-share market.
Macro
Long
May 26
$92.84
-3.8%
Japan has transitioned from deflation to inflation. It has the lowest real rates among major economies and needs to raise rates. Rising rates confirm inflation and growth, which is bullish for Japanese equities. Inflation is far better than deflation for a country with 200% debt/GDP.
Macro
Long
May 26
$88.56
-16.7%
Gold miners have enormous margins because they were profitable at $1,500/oz gold, and gold is now $4,500/oz. Their profit margins are better than tech. We are long gold miners as part of our precious metals exposure.
Other
Long
May 26
$22.93
-13.4%
Clean energy is one of the top five positions in our model. Iran is the single best advertisement for clean energy, as it shows the vulnerability of fossil fuel dependence. Clean energy is no longer 'woke' – it is clean, secure, and available. The spending super cycle supports massive investment.
Energy
Long
May 26
$27.18
-2.7%
China dominates the clean energy cycle and is the biggest winner from Iran. Demand for its EVs, solar panels, batteries, and wind turbines is exploding. China is applying its industrial scale and speed to embodied AI, robotics, autonomous defense, autonomous vehicles, and biotech. We are very bullish China tech across the spectrum.
Consumer
Long
May 26
$90.35
-12.0%
Humanoid robotics is one of the top five performing positions in our thematic model. The robotics ETF is heavily exposed to China, Japan, and Korea. The push toward automation and embodied AI is a key theme in the spending super cycle.
AI/Semi
Long
May 26
$89.64
-3.3%
Europe is the big winner from the dual ceasefires – US-Iran deal and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Germany is finally spending with low debt/GDP. European equities are outperforming the US and are exposed to a ceasefire trade. We are quite bullish Europe.
Macro
Long
May 26
$137.10
-2.0%
The AI age requires physical commodities; 'digital eats the physical'. We went long oil in the fall when Wall Street expected Brent at $52, driven by the spending super cycle, not geopolitics. We have trimmed but still hold the position. Oil remains a tactical long within a broader commodity overweight.
Energy
Long
Mar 24
$28.21
+3.4%
Speaker states they are "significantly overweight commodities" (20% vs. benchmark 10%), with exposure across precious/industrial metals, miners, energy, and renewables. The global growth long cycle, driven by spending on AI, defense, and climate, requires massive amounts of physical goods (copper, aluminum, etc.). Supply exploration is constrained. Direct, high-conviction overweight position. Commodities are a direct expression of the core macro thesis that physical infrastructure build-out is essential and under-supplied. A sharp global growth slowdown halting the capex cycle.
Speaker states they are "significantly overweight commodities" (20% vs. benchmark 10%), with exposure across precious/industrial metals, miners, energy, and renewables. The global growth long cycle, driven by spending on AI, defense, and climate, requires massive amounts of physical goods (copper, aluminum, etc.). Supply exploration is constrained. Direct, high-conviction overweight position. Commodities are a direct expression of the core macro thesis that physical infrastructure build-out is essential and under-supplied. A sharp global growth slowdown halting the capex cycle.
Other
Long
Mar 24
$35.34
-1.7%
Speaker states they are "bullish" on China equities, focusing on China within EM. Cites China's ~12x P/E vs. US 21x, leadership in renewables and automation, and potential to defeat deflation. China has cheaper valuations, superior positioning in key growth themes (renewables, embodied AI), and potential for a diplomatic rapprochement with the US that could unlock institutional buying. Explicitly bullish on Chinese equities as a primary destination for capital rotating away from expensive U.S. assets. Escalation of U.S.-China tensions (trade, Taiwan) or a failure to stimulate the domestic economy and defeat deflation.
Speaker states they are "bullish" on China equities, focusing on China within EM. Cites China's ~12x P/E vs. US 21x, leadership in renewables and automation, and potential to defeat deflation. China has cheaper valuations, superior positioning in key growth themes (renewables, embodied AI), and potential for a diplomatic rapprochement with the US that could unlock institutional buying. Explicitly bullish on Chinese equities as a primary destination for capital rotating away from expensive U.S. assets. Escalation of U.S.-China tensions (trade, Taiwan) or a failure to stimulate the domestic economy and defeat deflation.
Macro
Long
Mar 24
$33.81
-2.1%
Speaker explicitly names ILF (Latin America ETF) as a focus, noting it is ~70% Brazil and ~1/3 energy & materials. Latin America is a source for the physical goods (metals, energy, materials) needed for the global growth long cycle. It offers exposure to the "pick and shovel" theme at a time when U.S. energy/material weightings are low. Direct bullish call. The region is a direct play on the commodity and physical infrastructure needed for global spending themes. Regional political instability or a collapse in commodity prices.
Speaker explicitly names ILF (Latin America ETF) as a focus, noting it is ~70% Brazil and ~1/3 energy & materials. Latin America is a source for the physical goods (metals, energy, materials) needed for the global growth long cycle. It offers exposure to the "pick and shovel" theme at a time when U.S. energy/material weightings are low. Direct bullish call. The region is a direct play on the commodity and physical infrastructure needed for global spending themes. Regional political instability or a collapse in commodity prices.
Macro
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Jay Pelosky has 14 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 14 tickers since March 2026. Ranked #375 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: SMH, COPPER, EEM.