The ‘EMification of America’ — The U.S. No Longer Deserves Its Premium Valuation | Jay Pelosky
Summary
- Jay Pelosky's core thesis is that the "baton of global equity leadership is being passed from the US to the rest of the world," driven by a "global growth long cycle" and the "EMification of America."
- The US does not deserve its premium valuation (~21x P/E) because its earnings growth is no longer special, while Emerging Markets (e.g., China at ~12x P/E) and other regions are forecast for higher EPS growth.
- The "global growth long cycle" (began in 2023) is driven by massive public & private spending on three existential issues: AI, defense, and climate/renewable energy. The Iran conflict may accelerate spending on renewables and defense, acting as a potential boost to global growth.
- The "EMification of America" refers to the U.S. exhibiting typical EM traits: volatile policymaking (e.g., tariffs, Iran conflict), high deficits, institutional erosion, and concentrated power, while still trading at a premium valuation—a disconnect poised to close.
- China is a key opportunity due to: leadership in renewable energy & embodied AI/automation, progress in defeating deflation (watching 10-year bond yields rise), and potential for a U.S.-China rapprochement that could reopen institutional investment.
- Within asset allocation, he is deeply overweight equities (70%) and commodities (20%), and underweight developed market sovereign bonds (holds none). Favors private credit.
- Specific investment themes include the "pick and shovel" plays for AI/defense/energy: copper, industrial metals, miners, and semiconductors. The physical infrastructure is critical: "Without copper... you have no AI."
- The best environment for non-US equity outperformance is when the U.S. has high-single-digit earnings growth, not a crash. He expects a gradual derating of U.S. assets.
Trade Ideas
Speaker argues "the US doesn't deserve that premium valuation" and that a "secular change in global equity leadership away from the US" is underway. The US exhibits "EMification" traits (volatile policy, institutional erosion) but trades at a premium P/E (~21x) while its earnings growth advantage has eroded relative to EM and other regions. The explicit view is that US equity leadership is ending and its premium will erode. The actionable implication is to underweight or avoid relying on US outperformance. A dramatic surge in US productivity or geopolitical reversal that restores its growth premium and policy credibility.
Speaker states they are "significantly overweight commodities" (20% vs. benchmark 10%), with exposure across precious/industrial metals, miners, energy, and renewables. The global growth long cycle, driven by spending on AI, defense, and climate, requires massive amounts of physical goods (copper, aluminum, etc.). Supply exploration is constrained. Direct, high-conviction overweight position. Commodities are a direct expression of the core macro thesis that physical infrastructure build-out is essential and under-supplied. A sharp global growth slowdown halting the capex cycle.
Speaker explicitly states, "we're bullish EM," and that the "baton of global equity leadership is being passed... to the emerging markets." EM trades at a discount to the US, is forecast for higher earnings growth, and is directly benefiting from regional integration and spending on renewables/defense/AI. The "EMification of America" theme accelerates capital rotation toward genuine EM. Clear, overarching bullish call on the asset class as the primary beneficiary of a secular leadership change. A systemic financial crisis or a major US market crash that triggers broad risk-off sentiment.
Speaker states, "We have not had a treasury position in three or four years... no sovereign long duration debt at all outside of... in the DM developed markets." In a global growth long cycle with rising commodity prices and fiscal spending, the environment is hostile for long-duration sovereign bonds. The "EMification" theme also suggests higher term premium for US debt. Explicit, multi-year avoidance of an entire asset class (DM sovereign bonds) based on the core macro framework. A severe, deflationary global recession causing a flight to quality into government bonds.
Speaker explicitly names COPX (copper miners ETF) as "really attractive," noting it is down 30-40% in a pullback. EVs use a ton of copper and are poised for increased adoption, especially post-Iran conflict. Exploration for new mineral sources is limited, constraining future supply. Direct bullish call on the asset. Copper is a critical physical input for the AI, defense, and renewable energy build-out, creating structural demand. A major global recession derailing commodity demand and the capex cycle.
Speaker explicitly names ILF (Latin America ETF) as a focus, noting it is ~70% Brazil and ~1/3 energy & materials. Latin America is a source for the physical goods (metals, energy, materials) needed for the global growth long cycle. It offers exposure to the "pick and shovel" theme at a time when U.S. energy/material weightings are low. Direct bullish call. The region is a direct play on the commodity and physical infrastructure needed for global spending themes. Regional political instability or a collapse in commodity prices.
Speaker names SMH (semiconductor ETF) as a focus within the AI theme: "we're focused on the semiconductor space. So, things like SMH." Semiconductors are the "pick and shovel" for AI development and build-out, which is a core pillar of the global growth long cycle. Explicit mention as a way to gain exposure to a critical enabling technology for the dominant investment theme. A sharp downturn in the semiconductor cycle or excessive capex leading to oversupply.
Speaker states they are "bullish" on China equities, focusing on China within EM. Cites China's ~12x P/E vs. US 21x, leadership in renewables and automation, and potential to defeat deflation. China has cheaper valuations, superior positioning in key growth themes (renewables, embodied AI), and potential for a diplomatic rapprochement with the US that could unlock institutional buying. Explicitly bullish on Chinese equities as a primary destination for capital rotating away from expensive U.S. assets. Escalation of U.S.-China tensions (trade, Taiwan) or a failure to stimulate the domestic economy and defeat deflation.
Up Next
This Julia LaRoche Show video, published March 24, 2026, features Jay Pelosky discussing UST, DBC, EEM, BWX, COPX, ILF, SMH, FXI. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jay Pelosky · Tickers: UST, DBC, EEM, BWX, COPX, ILF, SMH, FXI