Iran Says Trump's Claim of Talks is 'Fake News' | The Pulse 3/24/2026
Speakers
Christian Mueller-Glissmann -- Head of Asset Allocation Research, Goldman Sachs
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- Macro/Asset Allocation: Christian Mueller-Glissmann (Goldman Sachs) advocates a defensive portfolio stance due to the high-velocity, stagflationary shock from the Iran conflict. Template from 2022 suggests equities and bonds won't hedge each other.
- Current Positioning: He is currently overweight cash and short fixed income for safety, viewing it as a temporary allocation for this volatile phase.
- Oil & Conflict Resolution: Expects Brent crude to settle in the low $80s after potential resolution, but with lasting damage. A ceasefire would bring initial relief, but equilibrium inflation will be higher and growth lower for the rest of the year.
- Currency View: Leans toward fading U.S. dollar strength eventually, as all central banks are fighting inflation. Sees potential for safe-havens like the Swiss Franc and Yen to help if recession risk rises.
- Gold & Private Credit: Notes gold has sold off due to dollar strength and positioning unwinds; sees it as a longer-term opportunity. On private credit, argues the ecosystem may handle shocks better than public credit markets, which are vulnerable.
- Telecom Italia M&A: CEO Pietro Labriola states the company is evaluating Poste Italiane's bid, emphasizing a market-friendly approach. He sees vertical integration and scale as critical in the digitalization race.
- Sector Thesis (Telecoms): Labriola argues forcefully for European telecom consolidation, stating "small is not necessarily nice" and that inaction is not an option to compete with U.S. and China.
- Iran War Analysis (Diplomats): Nathalie Tocci and Brett Bruen suggest Iran's bargaining position has strengthened as U.S. war goals have shifted to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. They see an "escalation trap" with Trump needing a deal for domestic reasons, giving Iran leverage.
- UK Economic Challenges: Antony Jenkins (10x Banking) highlights the UK's lack of growth, high national debt, and low confidence. Prescribes a relentless focus on productivity gains (e.g., eliminating low-value work) as the primary solution, ahead of AI automation.
- UK Fiscal Constraints: Jenkins stresses the UK government has virtually no fiscal capacity for stimulus due to maxed-out debt markets, leaving businesses to drive growth themselves.
Trade Ideas
Speaker stated they are "overweight cash" and "short fixed income" as a place to find safety in the current high-velocity, stagflationary phase of the conflict. The Iran conflict is a stagflationary shock where equities and bonds cannot hedge each other, leaving few safe havens. Short-duration fixed income and cash provide defensive ballast. LONG cash and SHORT fixed income is a tactical, defensive allocation for portfolio protection during this uncertain period, not intended to be held long-term. A swift diplomatic resolution to the conflict could reduce the need for such a defensive posture, making this a crowded trade.
Speaker stated they are "leaning more toward fading the dollar strength eventually" and that it's "not as clean to say now that the dollar is in a multi-month uptrend." In the 2022 stagflation shock, the Fed was the most credible inflation-fighter, making the dollar a hedge. Now, all central banks are responding aggressively, diluting that unique dollar advantage. The dollar's strength from energy independence and safe-haven flows may not be sustained. The view is to avoid chasing further dollar strength. A prolonged Middle East conflict that disrupts global energy supplies more severely could reinforce the dollar's safe-haven status.
Speaker confirmed Telecom Italia's board is evaluating a bid from Poste Italiane, calling it an "opportunity for the company" with potential synergy in customer platforms and digital sovereignty. Vertical integration with a service provider like Poste can increase footprint and portfolio services, aligning with the need for scale in digitalization. WATCH the potential acquisition as a market-driven event that could reshape the Italian telecom landscape and serve as a template for vertical integration in Europe. The market may reject the offer's valuation, or regulatory/political hurdles could block the deal.
Speaker argued European telecoms need consolidation, stating "small is not necessarily nice," "inaction is not an option," and that companies must integrate vertically and horizontally to gain scale against U.S. and Chinese tech. The digitalization business requires massive scale and investment. Fragmented national players cannot compete, creating a powerful structural driver for M&A. WATCH the European Communications sector for accelerating consolidation, both cross-border and vertical, as a critical theme for value creation and competitiveness. National regulatory and political resistance could continue to block necessary cross-border deals.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 24, 2026, features Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Pietro Labriola discussing CASH, SHY, UUP, PST.MI, XLC. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Pietro Labriola · Tickers: CASH, SHY, UUP, PST.MI, XLC