US UST US Treasury Bonds Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

The tweet argues that if commodities are not low and plentiful, U.S. Treasuries lose their store of value, forcing Fed buying and secular inflation, but it is a macro thesis without explicit trade direction.

The tweet sarcastically dismisses the need for insider info on Terra's collapse, referencing allegations against Jane Street without offering a forward-looking trade view.

The author warns that once oil tank bottoms are reached, global selling of U.S. Treasuries will intensify to fund oil purchases from alternative sources.

Luke Gromen sarcastically critiques a plan to shift Treasury issuance to the front end and use stablecoins to finance deficits, implying unsustainable debt dynamics and higher short-term yields.

Luke Gromen questions whether the Fed or Treasury is keeping UST futures rich to facilitate the basis trade, suggesting a hidden hand in Treasury market functioning.

Short bonds due to inflation concerns.

Bond yields face upward pressure.

The speaker states the Philippines is signaling frustration/desperation with the US over the Iran war's impact, is reopening communication with China, and key senators now support a joint energy exploration agreement in the South China Sea. The US-initiated war caused an energy/economic crisis for its ally, forcing a pragmatic hedge. This recalibration from a pro-US stance towards China on sensitive issues represents a significant geopolitical shift with long-term implications. WATCH because this is a strong, concrete signal of a restructuring alliance dynamic. The shift is material (energy exploration) and driven by acute economic pressure, making it a critical development to monitor for further realignment. The "devil is in the details"; constitutional, legal, and political hurdles in the Philippines could delay or alter any joint agreement. The immediate energy crisis timeframe doesn't match the long lead time of resource development.

States we are in a secular shift where long-term Treasury yields will rise, especially in the next recession, breaking the 40-year pattern. Calls the fiscal path "completely untenable" and says higher yields are the "path of least resistance." $2 trillion annual deficits are compounding, and bonds rolling off at ~3.8% will be refinanced at higher rates (4-5%), exploding interest expense. This will force a market-imposed stop, leading to higher yields. Higher yields mean lower prices for long-duration Treasury bonds. He holds near-zero exposure and has swapped to the lowest-coupon bonds to mitigate restructuring risk. A severe economic downturn could trigger a flight-to-quality bid for Treasuries, temporarily lowering yields against his thesis.

The 10-year US Treasury yield has moved up 50 basis points, and bonds are stated to be "no refuge" in the current inflationary/stagflation environment. The war-driven spike in commodity prices is feeding inflation, which is negative for fixed income, eliminating the traditional safe-haven characteristic of government bonds. AVOID as bonds are not providing protection and are suffering meaningful price depreciation in the current macro setup. A rapid resolution to the conflict that crushes commodity prices and inflation expectations.

Jablonski stated, "long 30 year Treasuries make sense as a bit of a hedge against a bad news surprise event." In an uncertain geopolitical environment, long-dated Treasuries provide a hedge against negative growth shocks or flight-to-quality flows. Long Treasuries are a defensive hedge, not a core bullish position, but warrant monitoring for portfolio protection. Persistent inflation or stronger-than-expected growth leads to further yield increases.

Speaker argues "the US doesn't deserve that premium valuation" and that a "secular change in global equity leadership away from the US" is underway. The US exhibits "EMification" traits (volatile policy, institutional erosion) but trades at a premium P/E (~21x) while its earnings growth advantage has eroded relative to EM and other regions. The explicit view is that US equity leadership is ending and its premium will erode. The actionable implication is to underweight or avoid relying on US outperformance. A dramatic surge in US productivity or geopolitical reversal that restores its growth premium and policy credibility.

@ronit9q @amateurlvl @leadlagreport @bullTat2 UST market quickly went boom every time that red line was touched since 2022... Maybe its different this time?

@rev_cap international stocks are down a lot, even more if you consider the currency. It is a flight so "safety"/rerotation into the U.S. that is helping the U.S. markets

@SOBRBC "Sell USA" really has nothing to do with it yet It's more "sell USTs to buy food and energy or else my people will hang me from a pole."

@John26633154 @EvanFeigenbaum they sold USTs hard in 2022 when oil rose on war

Gold futures trading up ($53.40 mentioned). Treasuries are bid (yields falling). Classic "Risk-Off" rotation. Uncertainty regarding the Iranian power vacuum and potential nuclear escalation drives capital into sovereign bonds and hard assets. LONG Safe Havens (Gold, US Treasuries, US Dollar). Inflation fears from high oil prices eventually pushing yields back up (Stagflation scenario).

1. THE FACT: China is strengthening CNY and implementing a "dual use" export ban on Chinese goods to Japan. China is Japan's largest import partner. 2. THE BRIDGE: This action will drive up Japan's import inflation, which will negatively impact Japanese government bonds (JGBs). The contagion effect is expected to spread to US Treasuries (USTs) and UK Gilts. 3. THE VERDICT: China's retaliatory actions against Japan will lead to higher inflation in Japan, hurting JGBs, and potentially spilling over to other developed market sovereign bonds like USTs and Gilts.

1. THE FACT: De-coupling from China requires the US to choose to sacrifice either the UST market or the USD, described as a "double-entry bookkeeping identity." 2. THE BRIDGE: The US cannot maintain both a strong UST market and a strong USD while decoupling from China. This implies that one or both will suffer significant devaluation. 3. THE VERDICT: Decoupling from China will force a sacrifice of either the UST market or the USD, implying a negative outlook for both.