Luke Gromen 7.5 343 ideas

Founder, Forest for the Trees
After 1 day
55%winrate
-0.1% avg
153W / 123L · 276/301 ideas
After 1 week
62%winrate
+0.6% avg
164W / 100L · 264/304 ideas
After 1 month
61%winrate
+2.5% avg
106W / 68L · 174/304 ideas
106 winning  /  68 losing  ·  174 positions (30d)
Net: +2.5%
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
TLT SHORT $86.28 Apr 16
TLT SHORT $86.60 Apr 16
IEF SHORT $95.58 Apr 16
TLT SHORT $86.94 Apr 15
GLD LONG $442.42 Apr 15
GLD LONG $444.50 Apr 14
CNY LONG — — Apr 14
GLD LONG $444.67 Apr 14
GLD LONG $444.67 Apr 14
GLD LONG $444.67 Apr 14
TLT SHORT $87.00 Apr 14
GLD LONG $441.92 Apr 14
TLT SHORT $87.00 Apr 14
UUP SHORT $27.31 Apr 14
USO LONG $124.57 Apr 12
TLT SHORT $86.49 Apr 12
USO LONG $124.57 Apr 12
KWEB LONG $28.77 Apr 09
TLT SHORT $86.94 Apr 09
DXY SHORT $27.48 Apr 09
SPY SHORT $679.94 Apr 09
TLT LONG $86.82 Apr 09
TLT SHORT $86.43 Apr 09
USD SHORT $56.52 Apr 08
XLE LONG $59.92 Apr 07
TLT SHORT $86.17 Apr 07
TLT LONG $86.79 Apr 05
GLD LONG $429.41 Apr 05
UUP SHORT $27.86 Apr 05
GLD LONG $429.41 Apr 05
By sector
ETF
272 ideas +1.4%
Commodity
37 ideas +6.5%
currency
18 ideas -0.6%
Crypto
5 ideas -2.9%
Stock
5 ideas +9.8%
index
4 ideas -1.7%
sector
2 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
TLT 78 ideas
97% W +3.0%
GLD 62 ideas
10% W -8.9%
USO 35 ideas
93% W +21.4%
SPY 29 ideas
88% W +6.2%
GOLD 20 ideas
100% W +6.2%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
USO LONG +52.9%
The author predicts the US government will try to suppress oil prices via price controls, a policy he implies will fail ...
Mar 03
SILVER LONG +50.5%
1. THE FACT: "The manufacturing corollary to "USD Dominance" is "USD Dutch Disease" (withering of defense industrial bas...
Dec 30
Worst calls
WTI SHORT -27.7%
@bunchofnumberz1 @tradescriptdev US unsanctioning Russian oil last night is a fly in the ointment to that view
Mar 07
USO SHORT -18.9%
The author argues that US policy is structurally biased towards suppressing oil prices in order to protect the US bond a...
Mar 10
GLD LONG -15.6%
The macro trend of US re-shoring and decoupling from China will necessitate gold becoming a primary neutral reserve asse...
Feb 24
Short U.S. Treasury bonds (via TLT) because the speaker asserts the fundamental valuation math is as unsustainable as subprime housing pre-crisis, implying sharply higher yields ahead.
TLT HIGH Apr 16, 18:00
"the math on USTs is at least as obvious as the math was on subprime housing in 2005-07."
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 16, 2026 at 18:00
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Short US Treasuries as inflationary pressures from geopolitical conflicts, combined with historically high debt levels, will force a collapse in bond prices.
TLT HIGH Apr 16, 15:16
"IE collapse of either USTs or int'l value of USD must come first, then renaissance"
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 16, 2026 at 15:16
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Short 10-year US Treasuries as rising oil prices force major importing creditors like Japan and China to liquidate USTs to finance their energy deficits, driving yields higher.
IEF HIGH Apr 16, 14:10
"an oil spike caused by war drives US oil importing creditors like Japan, China, Korea toward oil deficits which they sell USTs to finance."
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 16, 2026 at 14:10
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Long gold as a structural winner against a depreciating US dollar, particularly as the USD weakens in CNY terms.
GLD MED Apr 15, 15:04
"China’s gold rises a lot in USD terms"
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 15, 2026 at 15:04
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Short US Treasuries as holders will suffer real-term losses driven by the dollar depreciating against the yuan and gold rising in USD terms.
TLT HIGH Apr 15, 15:04
"loser = holders of US debt in real terms (ie US banks and US Boomers)"
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 15, 2026 at 15:04
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Accumulate gold as it is the only viable asset positioned to ultimately replace the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves.
GLD MED Apr 14, 23:31
"No currency will...gold will."
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 23:31
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Go long CNY due to its increasing use in global trade settlement, catalyzed by the widespread PBOC swap lines which encourage partner nations to conduct bilateral trade in Chinese currency.
CNY MED Apr 14, 21:46
"“Just switch a portion of your trade going forward to CNY - you are buying most of your imported goods from China anyway"
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 21:46
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Allocate to gold as a sovereign-neutral asset, protecting wealth from the geopolitical risks of foreign nations using accumulated US dollars to influence American corporate policy.
GLD HIGH Apr 14, 19:27
"This is why gold - China can't dictate policies to US corporate america & Wash DC"
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 19:27
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Hold gold as a definitive safe haven against a potential global economic collapse that would trigger widespread defaults across all debt instruments, including US Treasuries.
GLD MED Apr 14, 19:25
"that will also be good for gold too, because every piece of debt you see, including USTs, would default in a collapse of the global economy."
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 19:25
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Overweight gold relative to broad commodities, as gold is poised for a significant upward adjustment and will vastly outperform other inflating assets over the long term.
GLD HIGH Apr 14, 19:23
"Commodities fall v. gold long term, with big jumps higher in that gap happening every so often... Agree they will inflate, but not nearly as much as gold."
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 19:23
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Short long-term US Treasuries as purchasing power continues to structurally decline against hard assets like gold due to shifting ownership demographics.
TLT HIGH Apr 14, 17:16
"Just waiting for the axe to drop on their purchasing power (which has already arguably begun w/LT USTs down 90% v. gold since 2014)"
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 17:16
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Gold is uniquely positioned to absorb massive fiat debasement and debt deflation without causing global economic collapse, allowing for extreme upside potential compared to industrial commodities.
GLD HIGH Apr 14, 17:08
"Send gold to $39,000 - nothing happens."
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 17:08
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Short US Treasuries as massive dollar devaluation will be required, causing bonds to collapse in real terms to fund historical deficits and bailouts.
TLT HIGH Apr 14, 17:03
"Boomers will finally have to pay a fair price... via having their USTs & bonds collapse in real terms."
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 17:03
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Short the US Dollar as severe structural devaluation is necessary, driving the DXY below 60 to inflate away the real cost of historical obligations.
UUP HIGH Apr 14, 17:03
"IMO DXY probably needs to go sub-60."
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 17:03
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Foreign nations selling USD assets to aggressively bid up oil prices will drive US inflation higher, making oil a strong long.
USO HIGH Apr 12, 18:09
"China + ROW has $27tn of USD assets they can sell to bid up oil as high enough to send US inflation to 10%+"
𝕏 @lukegromen ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 12, 2026 at 18:09
𝕏 @lukegromen
Founder, Forest for the Trees
Luke Gromen (Founder, Forest for the Trees) | 343 trade ideas tracked | TLT, GLD, USO, SPY, GOLD | Twitter, YouTube | Buzzberg