Luke Gromen

1. THE FACT: Luke Gromen asks if dimes and quarters will be 90% silver again, implying a return to a precious metal-backed currency or increased value for silver. 2. THE BRIDGE: A historical reference to silver content in coinage suggests a potential future scenario where precious metals regain monetary significance or value, driven by macro factors. 3. THE VERDICT: Long precious metals (silver and by extension gold) on the potential for a return to a precious metal-backed system or increased intrinsic value.

1. THE FACT: Venezuela nationalized its oil industry 26-50 years ago, and this becoming a "sticking point in 2025" is an "important signpost on numerous other macro factors (oil supplies, USD, China, etc.)". 2. THE BRIDGE: The re-emergence of Venezuela's nationalized oil industry as a significant macro factor suggests potential disruptions or shifts in global oil supplies, which would likely drive oil prices higher. 3. THE VERDICT: Long oil and energy stocks due to potential disruptions in global oil supplies signaled by Venezuela's nationalized oil industry becoming a key macro factor.

The US will be forced to increase domestic defense spending to secure its supply chain from China, as the integrity of the US defense industrial base is critical to backing the US dollar.

Gromen states, "Ultimately, every time the dollar gets too strong, the treasury market is going to dysfunction. It is a mathematical certainty." He explicitly advises to be "short bonds" and "short duration." As oil prices rise (due to Iran/Hormuz conflict), foreign nations (importers) must sell their US Treasury reserves to raise cash to buy expensive oil. This creates a massive "natural seller" of Treasuries, driving prices down and yields up. SHORT long-duration US Treasuries as foreign central banks liquidate holdings to fund energy needs. The Federal Reserve implementing Yield Curve Control (YCC) to cap rates, which would force bond prices up artificially.

1. THE FACT: Venezuela nationalized its oil industry 26-50 years ago, and this becoming a "sticking point in 2025" is an "important signpost on numerous other macro factors (oil supplies, USD, China, etc.)". 2. THE BRIDGE: The re-emergence of Venezuela's nationalized oil industry as a significant macro factor suggests potential disruptions or shifts in global oil supplies, which would likely drive oil prices higher. 3. THE VERDICT: Long oil and energy stocks due to potential disruptions in global oil supplies signaled by Venezuela's nationalized oil industry becoming a key macro factor.

The author is expressing high conviction in a long US electrical infrastructure trade by stating it is one of their largest personal holdings.

Gromen explicitly mentions he has a "very large position in electrical infrastructure equities" and names the "PAVE ETF" and "GRID ETF" as examples of well-positioned assets. Regardless of war or interest rates, the US is forced to modernize its grid and reshore manufacturing. This spending is non-discretionary and structural, providing a floor for these companies even in a recession. LONG US Infrastructure and Grid modernization plays. Supply chain disruptions preventing materials from reaching these projects.

The author projects a significant rise in commodity prices based on the macro thesis that increasing real wages in China will lead to higher consumption.

The cleanest fundamental plays in the current environment are in energy, uranium, domestic electrical infrastructure, and the industrials selling into that sector, due to existing bottlenecks, reshoring impetus, and strategic importance.

The cleanest fundamental plays in the current environment are in energy, uranium, domestic electrical infrastructure, and the industrials selling into that sector, due to existing bottlenecks, reshoring impetus, and strategic importance.

Inflation is expected to soar in the near future, contradicting the prevailing narrative of moderating inflation and suggesting long exposure to inflation-protected assets or commodities.

The author draws a historical parallel to suggest China is positioned to thrive economically relative to the US.

The author argues that US Treasury prices are rising due to a real shortage, dismissing the popular narrative that "China's not buying" as a deliberate attempt to contain the price rally.

1. THE FACT: Venezuela nationalized its oil industry 26-50 years ago, and this becoming a "sticking point in 2025" is an "important signpost on numerous other macro factors (oil supplies, USD, China, etc.)". 2. THE BRIDGE: The re-emergence of Venezuela's nationalized oil industry as a significant macro factor suggests potential disruptions or shifts in global oil supplies, which would likely drive oil prices higher. 3. THE VERDICT: Long oil and energy stocks due to potential disruptions in global oil supplies signaled by Venezuela's nationalized oil industry becoming a key macro factor.

1. THE FACT: Venezuela nationalized its oil industry 26-50 years ago, and this becoming a "sticking point in 2025" is an "important signpost on numerous other macro factors (oil supplies, USD, China, etc.)". 2. THE BRIDGE: The re-emergence of Venezuela's nationalized oil industry as a significant macro factor suggests potential disruptions or shifts in global oil supplies, which would likely drive oil prices higher. 3. THE VERDICT: Long oil and energy stocks due to potential disruptions in global oil supplies signaled by Venezuela's nationalized oil industry becoming a key macro factor.