MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 16, 2026 at 17:31  |  1:34:28  |  Macro Voices
Speakers
Luke Gromen — Founder, Forest for the Trees
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend — Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager
Rory Johnston — Founder, Commodity Context

Summary

Luke Gromen and Rory Johnston analyze the escalating Iran crisis and its severe implications for global oil supply chains, inflation, and sovereign bond markets. They argue the market is dangerously complacent about the physical oil shortage and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could trigger a nonlinear economic break. The discussion explores investment implications, favoring safe havens like gold and strategic sectors like energy and infrastructure, while cautioning on bonds and risk assets.

  • Luke Gromen warns the Hormuz closure could be a 'US Suez 1956 moment,' with exponential supply chain damage and severe inflation in food and energy.
  • He believes the crisis is existential for Iran, China, and Russia, increasing the risk of a prolonged conflict and global economic disruption.
  • Gromen recommends holding cash and gold as safe havens and favors energy, uranium, and electrical infrastructure as fundamental long-term plays.
  • Rory Johnston details the physical oil market dislocation, noting that virtually no VLCCs have transited Hormuz since late February, creating a massive coming supply 'air pocket.'
  • Johnston explains that oil futures are not yet pricing the full physical scarcity, with dated Brent and delivered premiums trading at extreme levels.
  • Patrick Ceresna presents a structured options trade on TLT to position for near-term inflation risks followed by a potential growth-driven bond rally.
  • Hosts discuss market complacency, with equities rallying on perceived de-escalation despite the looming physical oil shortage.
  • The analysis stresses the high-stakes interplay between commodity-driven inflation, fiscal stress, and potential central bank responses (money printing) to cap bond yields.
Trade Ideas
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 23:04
Own cash and gold as a safe haven.
Due to supply chain disruptions from the closed Strait of Hormuz, which are accelerating nonlinearly and leading to severe inflation (food, energy) and bond market stress, the speaker is holding cash and bullion as a safe haven. He views this environment as tough for risk-taking and investing, and gold is a preferred store of value.
GOLD CASH HIGH
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 45:10
Own energy, uranium, and electrical infrastructure.
The cleanest fundamental plays in the current environment are in energy, uranium, domestic electrical infrastructure, and the industrials selling into that sector, due to existing bottlenecks, reshoring impetus, and strategic importance.
XLI XLE URANIUM PAVE MED
Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 46:27
Bitcoin likely follows software ETF lower.
Bitcoin is likely to follow the IGV software ETF lower if the speaker's thesis of a supply chain-driven market downturn plays out, indicating a short or avoid stance on Bitcoin in the near term.
BTC IGV MED
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices / Retired Software Entrepreneur turned Hedge Fund Manager 67:06
Trade oil time spread compression and expansion.
Front-month oil time spreads (e.g., Brent, WTI) are expected to compress further in the near term as macro traders perceive the crisis ending, but will explode higher in 2-3 weeks when the physical supply 'air pocket' hits Southeast Asia and Australia. This presents a trading opportunity to buy the dip in time spreads.
USO BRENT WTI MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 77:01
Structured TLT options for yield sequence.
A structured options trade on TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) is proposed to navigate the sequence of near-term inflation risks pushing yields higher, followed by a potential growth slowdown pulling yields lower. The trade buys a long-dated call for upside if yields fall later and a near-term put spread for protection if yields rise further first.
TLT HIGH
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This Macro Voices video, published April 16, 2026, features Luke Gromen, Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna discussing GOLD, CASH, XLI, XLE, URANIUM, PAVE, BTC, IGV, USO, BRENT, WTI, TLT. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Luke Gromen, Erik Townsend, Patrick Ceresna  · Tickers: GOLD, CASH, XLI, XLE, URANIUM, PAVE, BTC, IGV, USO, BRENT, WTI, TLT