Oil Rises as Trump Threatens to Blockade Hormuz; Bank Earnings Kick Off | Bloomberg Brief 4/13/2026
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Summary
The video covers escalating Middle East tensions as the US threatens to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, spiking oil prices above $100 and shaking global stocks and bonds. Market reactions include gains in energy and fertilizer shares, weakness in travel stocks, and the start of bank earnings season. Ella Gude of BNY Investments Newton discusses a structural bullish view on commodities, upward pressure on bond yields, and tight credit spreads amid macro risks.
- US threatens to blockade Strait of Hormuz, targeting Iranian oil shipments.
- Oil prices surge over 8%, with Brent and WTI above $100 per barrel.
- Global stocks and bonds slide on inflationary concerns.
- Travel stocks (airlines, cruise lines) fall on higher fuel costs and demand fears.
- Energy and fertilizer stocks rise on supply disruption risks.
- Bank earnings season begins with Goldman Sachs reporting.
- Ella Gude sees structural bullish environment for commodities and rising bond yields.
- Credit spreads are viewed as not adequately pricing in macro risks.
Trade Ideas
Commodities bull market drives yields higher.
Higher energy and input costs from a structural bullish environment for commodities, including oil, lead to higher inflation, creating persistent upward pressure on bond yields.
Bond yields face upward pressure.
Inflationary pressures from higher commodity costs mean bond yields should move up, and the structural environment keeps pressure on yields to rise.
Credit spreads too tight for risks.
Macro risks from higher input costs hurt corporations and consumers, yet credit spreads do not offer sufficient premium for these risks; historical episodes show poor returns at current spread levels, though technical support exists from private credit flows.
